AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#52Away
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
25p
#50Home
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
30p
UCF 36%64% KU
Spread
KU -4.9
Total
55
Moneyline
UCF+174KU-174
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UCF advantageevenKU advantage →
UCF throw
KU pass rush #42
UCF +13
UCF run
KU +55
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
UCF +13
KU run
KU backs #63
KU +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · KU
EDGE · UCF
96.9
95.8
dead even
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · KU
CB1 · UCF
68.5
74.2
UCF +6
when KU runs
Yasin Willis
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · KU
MLB · UCF
59.9
80.2
UCF +20
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Jalen Todd
X · UCF
CB1 · KU
65.7
67.8
dead even
when UCF runs
Duke Watson
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · UCF
MLB · KU
49.4
78.3
KU +29
over the middle
Leyton Cure
vs
Antione Jackson
TE · KU
FS · UCF
60.0
62.8
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UCF
opponent
Kansas
home-3.6
TCU#32
-6.2away
home-1.3
Baylor#42
+1.1home
away+8.3
Oklahoma State#97
+10.7away
home-10.2
BYU#19
-7.9home
home+0.1
Arizona State#43
0.0neutral

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKU +4.995% interval: -19 to 28.880% interval: -12.5 to 22.2-12+22UCF wins 36%KU wins 64%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KU 32–25 UCFKU 28–49 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 32–46 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 35–42 UCF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKU 39–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 42–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 46–32 UCF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKU 49–28 UCF neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 53–25 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 56–21 UCF neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesKU 25–46 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 28–42 UCF neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 32–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 35–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKU 39–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKU 42–28 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKU 46–25 UCF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKU 49–21 UCF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 53–18 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 21–42 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKU 25–39 UCF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKU 28–35 UCF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKU 32–32 UCF neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKU 35–28 UCF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKU 39–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKU 42–21 UCF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKU 46–18 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 49–14 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 18–39 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKU 21–35 UCF neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKU 25–32 UCF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 28–28 UCF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKU 32–25 UCF neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKU 35–21 UCF neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 39–18 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 42–14 UCF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 46–11 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 14–35 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKU 18–32 UCF neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKU 21–28 UCF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 25–25 UCF neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKU 28–21 UCF neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKU 32–18 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKU 35–14 UCF neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 39–11 UCF neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 42–7 UCF neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 11–32 UCF neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 14–28 UCF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 18–25 UCF neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 21–21 UCF neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKU 25–18 UCF neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 28–14 UCF neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 32–11 UCF neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKU 35–7 UCF neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 39–4 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 7–28 UCF neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 11–25 UCF neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 14–21 UCF neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKU 18–18 UCF neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKU 21–14 UCF neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKU 25–11 UCF neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 28–7 UCF neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 32–4 UCF neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKU 35–0 UCF neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUCF +21UCF +7KU +7KU +21KU +35margin →