CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
UCF 51.9%48.1% KU
Projected margin
UCF by 0.7
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
UCF 19 to KU 18
Win probability
UCF 51.9%

Current team profiles

UCF
Kansas

When UCF has the ball

Passing

KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCF offense
#84
KU defense
#71
EPA comparison
0.16
#84
0.15
#71
Pass EPA

Rushing

KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCF offense
#72
KU defense
#27
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
-0.07
#27
Rush EPA

Drive success

KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UCF offense
#94
KU defense
#20
Success rates
41%
#94
35%
#20
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#80
-0.03
#30
EPA / play
1.29
#33
1.27
#92
Explosiveness
15%
#69
20%
#19
Havoc

When Kansas has the ball

Passing

KU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UCF defense
#68
KU offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.13
#68
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

KU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UCF defense
#22
KU offense
#19
EPA comparison
-0.09
#22
0.24
#19
Rush EPA

Drive success

KU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UCF defense
#67
KU offense
#28
Success rates
40%
#67
48%
#28
Success rate
More metrics
0.00
#41
0.25
#28
EPA / play
1.10
#22
1.34
#20
Explosiveness
15%
#84
14%
#60
Havoc

Current key players

UCF
QBRocco Marriott
— yds · — TD · — INT
78.385/729
RBAgyeman Addae
74 yds · 1 TD · 18.5 YPC
81.460/1044
DBDemari Henderson
29 tkl · 3 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.5
Coverage
72.5
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
38
Passer rating allowed
0.7
Missed tackles
5
79.768/2969
DBJayden Bellamy
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
74.6
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
81
Passer rating allowed
25.2
Missed tackles
1
77.0122/2969
DBJayden Williams
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.2
Coverage
71.9
Targets allowed
19
Rec allowed
16
Yards allowed
161
Passer rating allowed
80.0
Missed tackles
1
74.5209/2969
WRCaleb Rollerson
4 rec · 38 yds · 1 TD
74.1143/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Lewis Carter · LBout · 2026-10-10

    Carter has been placed on the injured list with a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Duane Thomas Jr. · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Thomas Jr. is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Alonza Barnett III · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Barnett III is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is unclear if he will face BYU on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Dylan Wade · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Wade is dealing with an Shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will play against BYU on Saturday, October 24th.

Kansas
QBChase Jenkins
65 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
93.31/729
LBJaron Willis
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.8
Coverage
71.6
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.330/1796
WRNik McMillan
14 rec · 256 yds · 2 TD
85.324/2069
LBTrey Lathan
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.1
Coverage
83.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
83.554/1796
TEJack Utz
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
84.2
Penalties
0
77.934/1017
RBJalen Dupree
103 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
77.8120/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Cole Ballard · QBout · 2026-10-02

    Ballard is dealing with a shoulder injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Yasin Willis · RBout · 2026-09-28

    Willis has been out of the lineup with an foot injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Justin Thurman · RBout · 2026-08-11

    Thurman has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kory Amachree · RBout · 2026-10-02

    Amachree is expected to miss the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Jaylen Mason · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mason is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jailen Butler · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Butler exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Wildcats on Saturday, October

  • Carter Moses · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Moses is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UCF
KU
vs
Offense
78.3
#66 of 138
QB
93.3
#1 of 138
76.2
#63 of 138
RB
76.8
#57 of 138
68.8
#98 of 138
WR
78.9
#15 of 138
70.1
#64 of 138
TE
77.9
#30 of 138
70.1
#54 of 138
OL
77.5
#8 of 138
Defense
77.9
#23 of 138
DL
89.4
#1 of 138
71.5
#92 of 138
LB
83.2
#10 of 138
74.9
#36 of 138
DB
72.4
#66 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UCF
opponent
Kansas
H+8.0
TCU#36
-10.0A
A-14.0
OKST#52
-0.1A
H+3.8
ASU#65
-7.0N
H-6.5
BYU#18
-9.8H
H+0.6
BAY#41
-2.7H