AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#19Away
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
32p
#52Home
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
22p
BYU 76%24% UCF
Spread
BYU -10.2
Total
53
Moneyline
BYU-321UCF+321
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BYU advantageevenUCF advantage →
BYU throw
BYU WR #81
BYU +7
BYU run
BYU +11
UCF throw
BYU +10
UCF run
BYU +50

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · BYU
EDGE · UCF
88.8
95.8
UCF +7
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · BYU
MLB · UCF
84.9
80.2
BYU +5
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Evan Johnson
X · UCF
CB1 · BYU
65.7
85.7
BYU +20
when UCF runs
Duke Watson
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · UCF
MLB · BYU
49.4
84.3
BYU +35
over the middle
Walker Lyons
vs
Antione Jackson
TE · BYU
FS · UCF
68.0
62.8
BYU +5
when BYU throws
Reggie Frischknecht
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · BYU
CB1 · UCF
52.0
74.2
UCF +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427
UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
BYU
opponent
UCF
away+7.9
Kansas#50
-4.9away
home+13.7
Iowa State#56
+0.9home
home+12.8
Arizona State#43
+0.1home
home+11.4
Baylor#42
-1.3home
away+4.1
TCU#32
-3.6home

Projected margin

80% between -28 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBYU +10.295% interval: -34.1 to 13.780% interval: -27.6 to 7.1-28+7BYU wins 76%UCF wins 24%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BYU 32–25 UCFUCF 21–56 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 25–53 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCF 28–49 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCF 32–46 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 35–42 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 39–39 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCF 42–35 BYU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 46–32 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 49–28 BYU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUCF 18–53 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 21–49 BYU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 25–46 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 28–42 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 32–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 35–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 39–32 BYU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCF 42–28 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 46–25 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 14–49 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 18–46 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCF 21–42 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCF 25–39 BYU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 28–35 BYU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 32–32 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCF 35–28 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCF 39–25 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 42–21 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 11–46 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 14–42 BYU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 18–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCF 21–35 BYU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCF 25–32 BYU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCF 28–28 BYU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCF 32–25 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 35–21 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUCF 39–18 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 7–42 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 11–39 BYU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 14–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 18–32 BYU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUCF 21–28 BYU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCF 25–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCF 28–21 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 32–18 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 35–14 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 4–39 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 7–35 BYU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUCF 11–32 BYU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 14–28 BYU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCF 18–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCF 21–21 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCF 25–18 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCF 28–14 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 32–11 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 0–35 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 4–32 BYU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 7–28 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 11–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCF 14–21 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUCF 18–18 BYU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 21–14 BYU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 25–11 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 28–7 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalBYU +35BYU +21BYU +7UCF +7UCF +21margin →