CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
BYU 66.5%33.5% UCF
Projected margin
BYU by 6.5
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
BYU 25 to UCF 12
Win probability
BYU 66.5%

Current team profiles

BYU
UCF

When BYU has the ball

Passing

UCF defense
Higher-ranked profile
BYU offense
#70
UCF defense
#68
EPA comparison
0.23
#70
0.13
#68
Pass EPA

Rushing

BYU offense
Higher-ranked profile
BYU offense
#1
UCF defense
#22
EPA comparison
0.36
#1
-0.09
#22
Rush EPA

Drive success

BYU offense
Higher-ranked profile
BYU offense
#7
UCF defense
#67
Success rates
52%
#7
40%
#67
Success rate
More metrics
0.30
#16
0.00
#41
EPA / play
1.18
#96
1.10
#22
Explosiveness
8%
#2
15%
#84
Havoc

When UCF has the ball

Passing

BYU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BYU defense
#16
UCF offense
#84
EPA comparison
-0.02
#16
0.16
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

BYU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BYU defense
#18
UCF offense
#72
EPA comparison
-0.10
#18
0.10
#72
Rush EPA

Drive success

BYU defense
Higher-ranked profile
BYU defense
#32
UCF offense
#94
Success rates
35%
#32
41%
#94
Success rate
More metrics
-0.08
#13
0.12
#80
EPA / play
1.18
#48
1.29
#33
Explosiveness
20%
#17
15%
#69
Havoc

Current key players

BYU
QBTreyson Bourguet
15 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
84.448/729
RBLJ Martin
344 yds · 3 TD · 7.8 YPC
87.223/1044
TEWalker Lyons
8 rec · 89 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.6
Run blocking
78.4
Penalties
0
80.922/1017
WRLegend Glasker
14 rec · 279 yds · 2 TD
80.553/2069
CBCannon DeVries
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.9
Coverage
74.7
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
77
Passer rating allowed
102.4
Missed tackles
0
77.1120/2969
LBCade Uluave
20 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
65.5
Coverage
75.7
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
76.9142/1796
Availability reports · 7
  • LJ Martin · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Martin is managing with an ankle injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Sione Moa · RBout · 2026-09-20

    Moa is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Raider Damuni · Sout · 2026-09-07

    Damuni is out of commission due to a lower body injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Siale Esera · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Esera is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will play against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October

  • Andrew Gentry · OGQues. · 2026-10-10

    Gentry is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Brody Laga · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Laga has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October 1

  • Jacob Nye · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Nye is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October

UCF
QBRocco Marriott
— yds · — TD · — INT
78.385/729
RBAgyeman Addae
74 yds · 1 TD · 18.5 YPC
81.460/1044
DBDemari Henderson
29 tkl · 3 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.5
Coverage
72.5
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
38
Passer rating allowed
0.7
Missed tackles
5
79.768/2969
DBJayden Bellamy
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
74.6
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
81
Passer rating allowed
25.2
Missed tackles
1
77.0122/2969
DBJayden Williams
23 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.2
Coverage
71.9
Targets allowed
19
Rec allowed
16
Yards allowed
161
Passer rating allowed
80.0
Missed tackles
1
74.5209/2969
WRCaleb Rollerson
4 rec · 38 yds · 1 TD
74.1143/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Lewis Carter · LBout · 2026-10-10

    Carter has been placed on the injured list with a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Duane Thomas Jr. · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Thomas Jr. is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Alonza Barnett III · QBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Barnett III is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is unclear if he will face BYU on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Dylan Wade · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Wade is dealing with an Shoulder injury, and it is unclear if he will play against BYU on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BYU
UCF
vs
Offense
84.4
#42 of 138
QB
78.3
#66 of 138
87.2
#6 of 138
RB
76.2
#63 of 138
73.0
#47 of 138
WR
68.8
#98 of 138
80.9
#22 of 138
TE
70.1
#64 of 138
80.6
#3 of 138
OL
70.1
#54 of 138
Defense
76.1
#46 of 138
DL
77.9
#23 of 138
74.5
#64 of 138
LB
71.5
#92 of 138
72.6
#62 of 138
DB
74.9
#36 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

BYU
opponent
UCF
H+14.0
ISU#56
-0.8H
H+9.8
BAY#41
+0.6H
H+13.0
ASU#65
+3.8H
A+9.8
KU#31
+0.7A
A+7.0
TCU#36
+8.0H