AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Fri Nov 20 · 11:00 PM
#56Away
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
26p
#52Home
UCF
0-0 · AVR 54.6
27p
ISU 48%52% UCF
Spread
UCF -0.9
Total
53
Moneyline
ISU+110UCF-110
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ISU advantageevenUCF advantage →
ISU throw
ISU protection #117
UCF +26
ISU run
UCF +58
UCF throw
ISU +21
UCF run
ISU front #17ISU linebackers #135
ISU +36

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UCF throws
Jonathan Bibbs
vs
Braden Awls
X · UCF
CB1 · ISU
65.7
85.6
ISU +20
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
Jayden Bellamy
X · ISU
CB1 · UCF
63.8
74.2
UCF +10
when ISU runs
Arnold Barnes III
vs
Jahleel Culbreath
RB · ISU
MLB · UCF
50.9
80.2
UCF +29
over the middle
Dylan Wade
vs
Malcolm Jones
TE · UCF
FS · ISU
53.4
70.2
ISU +17
off the edge· hunting Raynor
Jake Taylor
vs
Bruno Dall
LT · ISU
EDGE · UCF
20.5
95.8
UCF +75
over the middle
Tyler Fortenberry
vs
Antione Jackson
TE · ISU
FS · UCF
49.9
62.8
UCF +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

UCF
LBJahleel Culbreath
80.250/878
DBJayden Bellamy
74.2160/1427
DBDemari Henderson
72.5182/1427
LBLewis Carter
70.3139/878
DBCaleb Flagg
66.1333/1427
WRJonathan Bibbs
65.779/777

also out — L.A. Jessie Harrold (EDGE)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Iowa State
opponent
UCF
home+14.9
Oklahoma State#97
+8.3away
away-13.7
BYU#19
-10.2home
away-4.7
Baylor#42
-1.3home

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUCF +0.995% interval: -23 to 24.980% interval: -16.4 to 18.3-16+18ISU wins 48%UCF wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UCF 28–28 ISUUCF 25–53 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 28–49 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 32–46 ISU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 35–42 ISU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUCF 39–39 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUCF 42–35 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 46–32 ISU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCF 49–28 ISU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUCF 53–25 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUCF 21–49 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 25–46 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 28–42 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCF 32–39 ISU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 35–35 ISU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 39–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 42–28 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 46–25 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 49–21 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 18–46 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 21–42 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 25–39 ISU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCF 28–35 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCF 32–32 ISU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 35–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCF 39–25 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 42–21 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 46–18 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 14–42 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 18–39 ISU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 21–35 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 25–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCF 28–28 ISU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCF 32–25 ISU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCF 35–21 ISU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 39–18 ISU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCF 42–14 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 11–39 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 14–35 ISU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUCF 18–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 21–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUCF 25–25 ISU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUCF 28–21 ISU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUCF 32–18 ISU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 35–14 ISU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUCF 39–11 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUCF 7–35 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 11–32 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 14–28 ISU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUCF 18–25 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUCF 21–21 ISU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUCF 25–18 ISU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUCF 28–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUCF 32–11 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUCF 35–7 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUCF 4–32 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUCF 7–28 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUCF 11–25 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUCF 14–21 ISU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUCF 18–18 ISU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUCF 21–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUCF 25–11 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUCF 28–7 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUCF 32–4 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalISU +28ISU +14PKUCF +14UCF +28margin →