Passing
ISU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU offense
- #87
- ISU defense
- #79
EPA comparison
0.15
#87
0.17
#79
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
BGSU 2.3%97.7% ISU
- Projected margin
- ISU by 29.1
- Projected total
- 44
- 80% outcome range
- ISU 10 to ISU 47
- Win probability
- ISU 97.7%
FinalBGSU 7 · ISU 55model had +29.1, off by 18.9
Current team profiles
Bowling GreenIowa StateWhen Bowling Green has the ball
Rushing
ISU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU offense
- #136
- ISU defense
- #63
EPA comparison
-0.12
#136
0.03
#63
Rush EPA
Drive success
ISU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU offense
- #123
- ISU defense
- #73
Success rates
38%
#123
40%
#73
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#126
0.07
#75
EPA / play
1.05
#134
1.25
#86
Explosiveness
17%
#109
15%
#79
Havoc
When Iowa State has the ball
Passing
BGSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU defense
- #75
- ISU offense
- #82
EPA comparison
0.16
#75
0.17
#82
Pass EPA
Rushing
ISU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU defense
- #121
- ISU offense
- #63
EPA comparison
0.18
#121
0.12
#63
Rush EPA
Drive success
ISU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- BGSU defense
- #117
- ISU offense
- #111
Success rates
46%
#117
39%
#111
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#95
0.13
#79
EPA / play
1.24
#82
1.30
#31
Explosiveness
14%
#107
18%
#121
Havoc
Current key players
Bowling GreenQBAustin Novosad
-1 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
61.2259/729
FBLeo Kemp
30 yds · 1 TD · 6.0 YPC
85.236/1044
WRWinn Sharp
15 rec · 217 yds · 1 TD
72.4184/2069
TETrent Taylor
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Run blocking
- 68.4
- Penalties
- 0
69.899/1017
SKal-El Pascal
38 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 69.4
- Coverage
- 69.3
- Targets allowed
- 8
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 67
- Passer rating allowed
- 99.5
- Missed tackles
- 5
69.7463/2969
LBCashmire Lewis
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.9
- Coverage
- 61.5
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 7
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
68.9416/1796
Availability reports · 3
- Austin Clay · WRout · 2026-09-26
Clay is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Isaiah Dawson · WRout · 2026-10-10
Dawson is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Ke'Marion Baldwin · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Baldwin is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face Ball State on Saturday, October 17th.
Iowa StateQBConnor Moberly
20 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
63.4234/729
RBAiden Flora
594 yds · 6 TD · 8.1 YPC
91.04/1044
CBBeni Ngoyi
7 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.7
- Coverage
- 81.0
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 4
- Yards allowed
- 90
- Passer rating allowed
- 62.2
- Missed tackles
- 1
82.540/2969
CBDavid Coffey
13 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 65.9
- Coverage
- 80.9
- Targets allowed
- 11
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 51
- Passer rating allowed
- 59.3
- Missed tackles
- 3
79.866/2969
LBTristan Exline
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.7
- Coverage
- 63.1
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
79.590/1796
SDrew Surges
13 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.5
- Coverage
- 76.1
- Targets allowed
- 6
- Rec allowed
- 5
- Yards allowed
- 50
- Passer rating allowed
- 101.4
- Missed tackles
- 4
74.8202/2969
Availability reports · 8
- Carter Pabst · WRout · 2026-10-03
Pabst is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Jordyn Bailey · WRout · 2026-09-01
Bailey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear when he will return.
- Dominic Overby · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Overby is dealing with an Knee injury, and it is unknown if he will face the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.
- Caden Crawford · DLQues. · 2026-10-10
Crawford is hampered due to an undisclosed injury , and it is unclear if he will play against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.
- Jaheim Singletary · CBQues. · 2026-10-10
Singletary is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.
- Rylan Barnes · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Barnes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.
- Easton Miller · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Miller is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.
- Luke Galer · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Galer is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
BGSUBowling Green
ISUIowa State
vs
Offense
61.2
#128 of 138
QB
Quarterback
63.4
#124 of 138
76.8
#56 of 138
RB
Running backs
81.6
#25 of 138
64.1
#134 of 138
WR
Receivers
72.0
#63 of 138
69.8
#66 of 138
TE
Tight ends
59.6
#124 of 138
60.3
#130 of 138
OL
Offensive line
70.2
#51 of 138
Defense
68.9
#117 of 138
DL
Defensive line
78.3
#22 of 138
62.2
#138 of 138
LB
Linebackers
73.3
#77 of 138
67.0
#125 of 138
DB
Secondary
76.8
#19 of 138