AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:00 PM
#114Away
Bowling Green
0-0 · AVR 34.6
18p
#56Home
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
34p
BGSU 14%87% ISU
Spread
ISU -16.2
Total
52
Moneyline
BGSU+641ISU-641
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BGSU advantageevenISU advantage →
BGSU throw
ISU +62
BGSU run
ISU front #17ISU linebackers #135
ISU +39
ISU throw
ISU protection #117
BGSU +22
ISU run
BGSU +49

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
JoJo Johnson
X · ISU
CB1 · BGSU
63.8
79.7
BGSU +16
off the edge· hunting Novosad
Brody Bolyn
vs
Isaac Terrell
LT · BGSU
EDGE · ISU
28.1
100.1
ISU +72
when BGSU throws
Brennan Ridley
vs
Braden Awls
X · BGSU
CB1 · ISU
38.4
85.6
ISU +47
when ISU runs
Arnold Barnes III
vs
Dorian Pringle
RB · ISU
MLB · BGSU
50.9
69.1
BGSU +18
off the edge· hunting Raynor
Jake Taylor
vs
Myles Bradley
LT · ISU
EDGE · BGSU
20.5
95.5
BGSU +75
over the middle
Tyler Fortenberry
vs
Armhan Hale
TE · ISU
FS · BGSU
49.9
62.8
BGSU +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Bowling Green
CBJoJo Johnson
79.791/1427
LBDorian Pringle
69.1161/878
DBJayT Jackson
69.1259/1427
SKal-El Pascal
65.6342/1427
LBAndrew Hines III
64.8216/878
QBAustin Novosad
53.1119/308
Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKISU +16.295% interval: -7.7 to 40.180% interval: -1.2 to 33.6-1+34BGSU wins 14%ISU wins 87%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ISU 32–18 BGSUISU 28–42 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 32–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 35–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 39–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 42–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 46–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 49–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 53–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 56–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 25–39 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 28–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 32–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 35–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 39–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 42–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesISU 46–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesISU 49–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 53–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesISU 21–35 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 25–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesISU 28–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 32–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesISU 35–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesISU 39–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesISU 42–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 46–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 49–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 18–32 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 21–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesISU 25–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 28–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesISU 32–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesISU 35–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesISU 39–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 42–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 46–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 14–28 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 18–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 21–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 25–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 28–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesISU 32–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 35–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 39–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesISU 42–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 11–25 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 14–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 18–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesISU 21–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 25–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 28–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 32–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 35–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ISU 7–21 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesISU 11–18 BGSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesISU 14–14 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 18–11 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 21–7 BGSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 25–4 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 28–0 BGSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalBGSU +14PKISU +14ISU +28ISU +42margin →