AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#97Away
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
20p
#56Home
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
35p
OKST 16%84% ISU
Spread
ISU -14.9
Total
54
Moneyline
OKST+534ISU-534
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OKST advantageevenISU advantage →
OKST throw
OKST protection #77
ISU +4
OKST run
OKST backs #26ISU front #17
OKST +5
ISU throw
ISU protection #117
OKST +19
ISU run
OKST +41

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
Isaac Terrell
LT · OKST
EDGE · ISU
90.8
100.1
ISU +9
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Braden Awls
X · OKST
CB1 · ISU
79.7
85.6
ISU +6
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Sullivan Schlimgen
RB · OKST
MLB · ISU
88.3
46.9
OKST +41
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
Kollin Lewis
X · ISU
CB1 · OKST
63.8
68.8
OKST +5
when ISU runs
Arnold Barnes III
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · ISU
MLB · OKST
50.9
76.0
OKST +25
over the middle
Tyler Fortenberry
vs
Mo Horn
TE · ISU
FS · OKST
49.9
63.9
OKST +14

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427
Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oklahoma State
opponent
Iowa State
away-17.7
Kansas State#44
-0.3home
away-10.4
West Virginia#66
+6.9home
home-8.3
UCF#52
-0.9away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKISU +14.995% interval: -9 to 38.880% interval: -2.5 to 32.3-2+32OKST wins 16%ISU wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ISU 35–21 OKSTISU 32–46 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 35–42 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 39–39 OKST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 42–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 46–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 49–28 OKST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 53–25 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesISU 56–21 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 60–18 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 28–42 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 32–39 OKST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 35–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 39–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 42–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesISU 46–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 49–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 53–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesISU 56–14 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 25–39 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 28–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesISU 32–32 OKST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 35–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesISU 39–25 OKST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesISU 42–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesISU 46–18 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 49–14 OKST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 53–11 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesISU 21–35 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 25–32 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 28–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 32–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesISU 35–21 OKST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesISU 39–18 OKST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesISU 42–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 46–11 OKST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 49–7 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesISU 18–32 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 21–28 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 25–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 28–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesISU 32–18 OKST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesISU 35–14 OKST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 39–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesISU 42–7 OKST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 46–4 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesISU 14–28 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesISU 18–25 OKST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesISU 21–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 25–18 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 28–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesISU 32–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesISU 35–7 OKST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 39–4 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesISU 42–0 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 11–25 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 14–21 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 18–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesISU 21–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 25–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 28–7 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 32–4 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 35–0 OKST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalOKST +14PKISU +14ISU +28ISU +42margin →