CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
OKST 22.2%77.8% ISU
Projected margin
ISU by 12.0
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
OKST 7 to ISU 31
Win probability
ISU 77.8%

Current team profiles

Oklahoma State
Iowa State

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Passing

OKST offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#31
ISU defense
#79
EPA comparison
0.37
#31
0.17
#79
Pass EPA

Rushing

ISU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#93
ISU defense
#63
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.03
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

OKST offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#18
ISU defense
#73
Success rates
50%
#18
40%
#73
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#63
0.07
#75
EPA / play
1.09
#128
1.25
#86
Explosiveness
10%
#9
15%
#79
Havoc

When Iowa State has the ball

Passing

OKST defense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#41
ISU offense
#82
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.17
#82
Pass EPA

Rushing

OKST defense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#47
ISU offense
#63
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

OKST defense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#54
ISU offense
#111
Success rates
39%
#54
39%
#111
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#52
0.13
#79
EPA / play
1.20
#57
1.30
#31
Explosiveness
15%
#81
18%
#121
Havoc

Current key players

Oklahoma State
QBDrew Mestemaker
1271 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
83.155/729
WRWyatt Young
22 rec · 410 yds · 3 TD
84.026/2069
RBKD Jones
54 yds · 1 TD · 7.7 YPC
83.744/1044
LBEthan Wesloski
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.6
Coverage
81.3
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
79.392/1796
CBMo Horn
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.7
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
66
Passer rating allowed
118.0
Missed tackles
0
78.192/2969
LBJack Puckett
0 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
61.7
Coverage
60.7
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.8161/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jacob Sexton · OGout · 2026-10-10

    Sexton is dealing with a leg injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Oscar Hammond · TEout · 2026-09-20

    Hammond is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

Iowa State
QBConnor Moberly
20 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
63.4234/729
RBAiden Flora
594 yds · 6 TD · 8.1 YPC
91.04/1044
CBBeni Ngoyi
7 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.7
Coverage
81.0
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
90
Passer rating allowed
62.2
Missed tackles
1
82.540/2969
CBDavid Coffey
13 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
65.9
Coverage
80.9
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
51
Passer rating allowed
59.3
Missed tackles
3
79.866/2969
LBTristan Exline
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
63.1
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
79.590/1796
SDrew Surges
13 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.5
Coverage
76.1
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
50
Passer rating allowed
101.4
Missed tackles
4
74.8202/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • Carter Pabst · WRout · 2026-10-03

    Pabst is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Jordyn Bailey · WRout · 2026-09-01

    Bailey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear when he will return.

  • Dominic Overby · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Overby is dealing with an Knee injury, and it is unknown if he will face the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Caden Crawford · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Crawford is hampered due to an undisclosed injury , and it is unclear if he will play against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Jaheim Singletary · CBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Singletary is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Rylan Barnes · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Barnes is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Easton Miller · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Miller is dealing with a Undisclosed injury, but he is expected to suit up against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Luke Galer · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Galer is dealing with an Undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Wildcats on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

OKST
ISU
vs
Offense
83.1
#48 of 138
QB
63.4
#124 of 138
79.5
#38 of 138
RB
81.6
#25 of 138
76.0
#30 of 138
WR
72.0
#63 of 138
60.4
#115 of 138
TE
59.6
#124 of 138
69.7
#56 of 138
OL
70.2
#51 of 138
Defense
75.6
#49 of 138
DL
78.3
#22 of 138
76.0
#51 of 138
LB
73.3
#77 of 138
70.7
#88 of 138
DB
76.8
#19 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Oklahoma State
opponent
Iowa State
A-12.3
KSU#37
+2.4H
A+17.0
WVU#86
+3.0H
H+14.0
UCF#48
+0.8A