AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 1:00 PM
Away
Southeast Missouri State
—
9p
#56Home
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
45p
SEMO 1%100% ISU
Spread
ISU -36.2
Total
54
Moneyline
SEMO—ISU—
Against the market
ISU +6.7line ISU -29.5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

Projected margin

80% between 18 and 54
-14-7+7+14PKISU +36.2MKT95% interval: 7 to 6380% interval: 18 to 54+18+54SEMO wins 1%ISU wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ISU 46–11 SEMOISU 42–35 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 46–32 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 49–28 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 53–25 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 56–21 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 60–18 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 63–14 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 67–11 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 70–7 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 39–32 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 42–28 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 46–25 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 49–21 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 53–18 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 56–14 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 60–11 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 63–7 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 67–4 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 35–28 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 39–25 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 42–21 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 46–18 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 49–14 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 53–11 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 56–7 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 60–4 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 63–0 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 32–25 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 35–21 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 39–18 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 42–14 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 46–11 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 49–7 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 53–4 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 56–0 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ISU 28–21 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 32–18 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 35–14 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 39–11 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 42–7 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 46–4 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 49–0 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ISU 25–18 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 28–14 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesISU 32–11 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 35–7 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 39–4 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesISU 42–0 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ISU 21–14 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 25–11 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 28–7 SEMO neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 32–4 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 35–0 SEMO neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalISU +7ISU +21ISU +35ISU +49ISU +63margin →