AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:30 PM
Cy-Hawk Trophy
#56Away
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
19p
#22Home
Iowa
0-0 · AVR 67.0
32p
ISU 19%81% IOWA
Spread
IOWA -12.7
Total
52
Moneyline
ISU+421IOWA-421
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ISU advantageevenIOWA advantage →
ISU throw
ISU protection #117IOWA pass rush #76
IOWA +27
ISU run
IOWA +27
IOWA throw
IOWA protection #5
ISU +49
IOWA run
ISU front #17ISU linebackers #135
IOWA +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Hecklinski
Jack Dotzler
vs
Isaac Terrell
LT · IOWA
EDGE · ISU
91.6
100.1
ISU +8
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
Zach Lutmer
X · ISU
CB1 · IOWA
63.8
91.9
IOWA +28
over the middle
DJ Vonnahme
vs
Malcolm Jones
TE · IOWA
FS · ISU
72.6
70.2
dead even
when IOWA throws
Reece Vander Zee
vs
Braden Awls
X · IOWA
CB1 · ISU
48.0
85.6
ISU +38
when IOWA runs
Kamari Moulton
vs
Sullivan Schlimgen
RB · IOWA
MLB · ISU
74.1
46.9
IOWA +27
over the middle
Tyler Fortenberry
vs
Alex Mota
TE · ISU
FS · IOWA
49.9
65.4
IOWA +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

Iowa
DBZach Lutmer
91.96/1427
DBTyler Browndoubtful
84.254/1427
DBDeshaun Lee
77.2122/1427
RBKamari Moulton
74.138/514
TEDJ Vonnahme
72.68/287
LBJayden Montgomery
62.0253/878

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKIOWA +12.795% interval: -11.2 to 36.680% interval: -4.7 to 30.1-5+30ISU wins 19%IOWA wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ IOWA 32–18 ISUIOWA 28–42 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIOWA 32–39 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 35–35 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIOWA 39–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIOWA 42–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 46–25 ISU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIOWA 49–21 ISU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIOWA 53–18 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIOWA 56–14 ISU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesIOWA 25–39 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 28–35 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesIOWA 32–32 ISU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIOWA 35–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesIOWA 39–25 ISU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesIOWA 42–21 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIOWA 46–18 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIOWA 49–14 ISU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesIOWA 53–11 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 21–35 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 25–32 ISU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 28–28 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIOWA 32–25 ISU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIOWA 35–21 ISU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesIOWA 39–18 ISU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIOWA 42–14 ISU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesIOWA 46–11 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 49–7 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 18–32 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 21–28 ISU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIOWA 25–25 ISU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesIOWA 28–21 ISU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesIOWA 32–18 ISU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesIOWA 35–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIOWA 39–11 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 42–7 ISU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIOWA 46–4 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIOWA 14–28 ISU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesIOWA 18–25 ISU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesIOWA 21–21 ISU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesIOWA 25–18 ISU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesIOWA 28–14 ISU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesIOWA 32–11 ISU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesIOWA 35–7 ISU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIOWA 39–4 ISU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesIOWA 42–0 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 11–25 ISU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesIOWA 14–21 ISU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesIOWA 18–18 ISU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIOWA 21–14 ISU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesIOWA 25–11 ISU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesIOWA 28–7 ISU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesIOWA 32–4 ISU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesIOWA 35–0 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)IOWA 7–21 ISU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesIOWA 11–18 ISU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesIOWA 14–14 ISU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesIOWA 18–11 ISU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesIOWA 21–7 ISU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesIOWA 25–4 ISU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesIOWA 28–0 ISU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalISU +14PKIOWA +14IOWA +28IOWA +42margin →