AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#16Away
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
32p
#56Home
Iowa State
0-0 · AVR 53.3
21p
UTAH 77%23% ISU
Spread
UTAH -10.7
Total
54
Moneyline
UTAH-330ISU+330
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTAH advantageevenISU advantage →
UTAH throw
UTAH +7
UTAH run
ISU front #17ISU linebackers #135
UTAH +36
ISU throw
ISU protection #117
UTAH +39
ISU run
UTAH +43

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Isaac Terrell
LT · UTAH
EDGE · ISU
87.1
100.1
ISU +13
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Braden Awls
X · UTAH
CB1 · ISU
82.5
85.6
ISU +3
when ISU throws
Omari Hayes
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · ISU
CB1 · UTAH
63.8
90.2
UTAH +26
over the middle
Hunter Andrews
vs
Malcolm Jones
TE · UTAH
FS · ISU
66.4
70.2
ISU +4
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
Sullivan Schlimgen
RB · UTAH
MLB · ISU
84.7
46.9
UTAH +38
over the middle
Tyler Fortenberry
vs
Elijah Davis
TE · ISU
FS · UTAH
49.9
72.8
UTAH +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

Iowa State
SBraden Awls
85.639/1427
CBBeni Ngoyi
81.376/1427
SDrew Surges
75.9142/1427
WROmari Hayes
63.890/777
QBJaylen Raynorprobable
60.367/308
RBArnold Barnes III
50.9267/514

also out — Matt Campbell

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Utah
opponent
Iowa State
home+4.5
BYU#19
-13.7away
home+20.2
West Virginia#66
+6.9home
away+2.8
Arizona#26
-10.4away
away+11.2
Cincinnati#51
+2.9home

Projected margin

80% between -28 and 7
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +10.795% interval: -34.6 to 13.280% interval: -28.1 to 6.7-28+7UTAH wins 77%ISU wins 23%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTAH 35–21 ISUISU 18–60 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesISU 21–56 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 25–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesISU 28–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 32–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 35–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 39–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 42–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesISU 46–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesISU 14–56 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 18–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 21–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 25–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 28–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 32–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 35–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesISU 39–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesISU 42–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesISU 11–53 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 14–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 18–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 21–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 25–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 28–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesISU 32–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 35–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 39–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 7–49 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 11–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 14–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 18–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 21–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesISU 25–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesISU 28–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 32–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 35–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 4–46 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 7–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 11–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesISU 14–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesISU 18–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesISU 21–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesISU 25–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesISU 28–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesISU 32–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesISU 0–42 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesISU 4–39 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesISU 7–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesISU 11–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 14–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesISU 18–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesISU 21–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 25–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesISU 28–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ISU 0–35 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesISU 4–32 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 7–28 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 11–25 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesISU 14–21 UTAH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesISU 18–18 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesISU 21–14 UTAH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesISU 25–11 UTAH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes77706356494235totalUTAH +42UTAH +28UTAH +14PKISU +14margin →