CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
OKST 21.9%78.1% KSU
Projected margin
KSU by 12.3
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
OKST 6 to KSU 31
Win probability
KSU 78.1%

Current team profiles

Oklahoma State
Kansas State

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Passing

OKST offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#31
KSU defense
#60
EPA comparison
0.37
#31
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

Same rank
OKST offense
#93
KSU defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.10
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

OKST offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST offense
#18
KSU defense
#26
Success rates
50%
#18
35%
#26
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#63
0.08
#80
EPA / play
1.09
#128
1.44
#134
Explosiveness
10%
#9
20%
#21
Havoc

When Kansas State has the ball

Passing

OKST defense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#41
KSU offense
#47
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.28
#47
Pass EPA

Rushing

KSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#47
KSU offense
#9
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.27
#9
Rush EPA

Drive success

KSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
OKST defense
#54
KSU offense
#12
Success rates
39%
#54
51%
#12
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#52
0.27
#25
EPA / play
1.20
#57
1.17
#98
Explosiveness
15%
#81
9%
#6
Havoc

Current key players

Oklahoma State
QBDrew Mestemaker
1271 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
83.155/729
WRWyatt Young
22 rec · 410 yds · 3 TD
84.026/2069
RBKD Jones
54 yds · 1 TD · 7.7 YPC
83.744/1044
LBEthan Wesloski
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.6
Coverage
81.3
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
79.392/1796
CBMo Horn
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.7
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
66
Passer rating allowed
118.0
Missed tackles
0
78.192/2969
LBJack Puckett
0 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
61.7
Coverage
60.7
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.8161/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jacob Sexton · OGout · 2026-10-10

    Sexton is dealing with a leg injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Oscar Hammond · TEout · 2026-09-20

    Hammond is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

Kansas State
QBJacob Knuth
7 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
78.089/729
LBJacobi Oliphant Jr.
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.2
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
90.59/1796
LBAshton Moore
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.4
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
83.256/1796
RBJay Harris
88 yds · 3 TD · 6.3 YPC
80.374/1044
SAdrian Maddox
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.2
Coverage
74.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
77.0125/2969
CBMicheal Graham Jr.
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.7
Coverage
60.0
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
75.5177/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Will Anciaux · TEout · 2026-10-05

    Anciaux is nursing with a lower leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • John Pastore · OGout · 2026-08-21

    Pastore has been shut down for the remainder of the season with a lower leg injury.

  • Jacob Knuth · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Knuth is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Blake Barnett · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Barnett is bothered by a lower body injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Arley Morrell · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Morrell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Duff · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Duff is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Max Lovett · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lovett id dealing with an arm injury and it is unclear if he will play against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

OKST
KSU
vs
Offense
83.1
#48 of 138
QB
78.0
#69 of 138
79.5
#38 of 138
RB
76.9
#55 of 138
76.0
#30 of 138
WR
67.5
#115 of 138
60.4
#115 of 138
TE
70.9
#57 of 138
69.7
#56 of 138
OL
80.3
#4 of 138
Defense
75.6
#49 of 138
DL
73.0
#72 of 138
76.0
#51 of 138
LB
83.5
#9 of 138
70.7
#88 of 138
DB
71.4
#78 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Oklahoma State
opponent
Kansas State
A-7.4
ASU#65
+2.2A
A-12.0
ISU#56
-2.4A
H+0.1
KU#31
+9.7H
A-13.1
HOU#13
-19.0H
H+4.8
COLO#84
+9.2A