AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#97Away
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
20p
#44Home
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
37p
OKST 12%89% KSU
Spread
KSU -17.7
Total
57
Moneyline
OKST+770KSU-770
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OKST advantageevenKSU advantage →
OKST throw
OKST protection #77
even
OKST run
OKST backs #26
even
KSU throw
KSU protection #103
even
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
OKST +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
Elijah Hill
LT · OKST
EDGE · KSU
90.8
82.5
OKST +8
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · OKST
CB1 · KSU
79.7
84.6
KSU +5
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Mekhi Mason
RB · OKST
MLB · KSU
88.3
70.3
OKST +18
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · KSU
MLB · OKST
81.0
76.0
KSU +5
over the middle
Garrett Oakley
vs
Mo Horn
TE · KSU
FS · OKST
67.4
63.9
KSU +4
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Kollin Lewis
X · KSU
CB1 · OKST
61.3
68.8
OKST +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427
Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oklahoma State
opponent
Kansas State
away-17.5
Houston#36
+2.7home
away-14.9
Iowa State#56
+0.3away
away-15.7
Arizona State#43
-0.5away
home-10.7
Kansas#50
+4.5home
home-3.6
Colorado#74
+6.6away

Projected margin

80% between 0 and 35
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKSU +17.795% interval: -6.2 to 41.680% interval: 0.3 to 35.1+0+35OKST wins 12%KSU wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KSU 39–18 OKSTKSU 35–42 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 39–39 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 42–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 46–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 49–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 53–25 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 56–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 60–18 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 63–14 OKST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesKSU 32–39 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 35–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 39–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 42–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKSU 46–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKSU 49–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 53–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 56–14 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 60–11 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 28–35 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 32–32 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 35–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 39–25 OKST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKSU 42–21 OKST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKSU 46–18 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 49–14 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 53–11 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 56–7 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 25–32 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 28–28 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 32–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 35–21 OKST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKSU 39–18 OKST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKSU 42–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 46–11 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 49–7 OKST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 53–4 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 21–28 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 25–25 OKST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 28–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 32–18 OKST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 35–14 OKST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 39–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 42–7 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 46–4 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 49–0 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 18–25 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 21–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKSU 25–18 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 28–14 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 32–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 35–7 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 39–4 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 42–0 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)KSU 14–21 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 18–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 21–14 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 25–11 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 28–7 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 32–4 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 35–0 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalOKST +7KSU +7KSU +21KSU +35KSU +49margin →