AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 PM
#85Away
Washington State
0-0 · AVR 45.3
21p
#44Home
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
34p
WSU 19%81% KSU
Spread
KSU -13.0
Total
55
Moneyline
WSU+439KSU-439
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WSU advantageevenKSU advantage →
WSU throw
KSU +61
WSU run
WSU backs #73
KSU +32
KSU throw
KSU protection #103
KSU +19
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
DJ Warner
RB · KSU
MLB · WSU
81.0
69.6
KSU +11
when WSU throws
Tony Freeman
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · WSU
CB1 · KSU
50.2
84.6
KSU +34
when WSU runs
Kirby Vorhees
vs
Mekhi Mason
RB · WSU
MLB · KSU
63.2
70.3
KSU +7
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Jack Bal
X · KSU
CB1 · WSU
61.3
62.4
dead even
over the middle
Garrett Oakley
vs
Kayo Patu
TE · KSU
FS · WSU
67.4
52.6
KSU +15
off the edge· hunting Johnson
Tanner Morley
vs
Paul Hutson III
LT · KSU
EDGE · WSU
32.9
84.5
WSU +52

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Washington State
LBDJ Warner
69.6153/878
RBKirby Vorhees
63.283/514
SJack Bal
62.4420/1427
CBJalil Tucker
54.9627/1427
CBJamarey Smith
53.0678/1427
WRTony Freeman
50.2307/777

also out — T. Leckner (TE), Hudson Cedarland (TE), J. Dugger (QB)

Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKSU +13.095% interval: -10.9 to 36.980% interval: -4.4 to 30.4-4+30WSU wins 19%KSU wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KSU 35–21 WSUKSU 32–46 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 35–42 WSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 39–39 WSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 42–35 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKSU 46–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 49–28 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 53–25 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKSU 56–21 WSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 60–18 WSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 28–42 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 32–39 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 35–35 WSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 39–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 42–28 WSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 46–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 49–21 WSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 53–18 WSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 56–14 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 25–39 WSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 28–35 WSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKSU 32–32 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 35–28 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKSU 39–25 WSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 42–21 WSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 46–18 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKSU 49–14 WSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 53–11 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 21–35 WSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 25–32 WSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKSU 28–28 WSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 32–25 WSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 35–21 WSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesKSU 39–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKSU 42–14 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKSU 46–11 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 49–7 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 18–32 WSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 21–28 WSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKSU 25–25 WSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 28–21 WSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKSU 32–18 WSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKSU 35–14 WSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKSU 39–11 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKSU 42–7 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 46–4 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 14–28 WSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 18–25 WSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 21–21 WSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKSU 25–18 WSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 28–14 WSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKSU 32–11 WSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 35–7 WSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 39–4 WSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 42–0 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 11–25 WSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 14–21 WSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 18–18 WSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 21–14 WSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 25–11 WSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 28–7 WSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKSU 32–4 WSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 35–0 WSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalWSU +14PKKSU +14KSU +28KSU +42margin →