AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
Governor's Cup (Kansas)
#50Away
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
26p
#44Home
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
31p
KU 38%62% KSU
Spread
KSU -4.5
Total
57
Moneyline
KU+162KSU-162
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KU advantageevenKSU advantage →
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
KSU +19
KU run
KU backs #63
KU +20
KSU throw
KSU protection #103KU pass rush #42
KSU +12
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
KU +22

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Elijah Hill
LT · KU
EDGE · KSU
96.9
82.5
KU +14
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · KSU
MLB · KU
81.0
78.3
dead even
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · KU
CB1 · KSU
68.5
84.6
KSU +16
when KU runs
Yasin Willis
vs
Mekhi Mason
RB · KU
MLB · KSU
59.9
70.3
KSU +10
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Jalen Todd
X · KSU
CB1 · KU
61.3
67.8
KU +6
over the middle
Leyton Cure
vs
Donovan McIntosh
TE · KU
FS · KSU
60.0
67.2
KSU +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kansas
opponent
Kansas State
away+10.7
Oklahoma State#97
+17.7home
away-6.2
TCU#32
-4.2away
neutral0.0
Arizona State#43
-0.5away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKSU +4.595% interval: -19.4 to 28.480% interval: -12.9 to 21.9-13+22KU wins 38%KSU wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KSU 32–25 KUKSU 28–49 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 32–46 KU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 35–42 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 39–39 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 42–35 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 46–32 KU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 49–28 KU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKSU 53–25 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 56–21 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 25–46 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 28–42 KU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKSU 32–39 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 35–35 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 39–32 KU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKSU 42–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 46–25 KU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 49–21 KU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 53–18 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 21–42 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 25–39 KU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 28–35 KU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKSU 32–32 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 35–28 KU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKSU 39–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 42–21 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 46–18 KU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 49–14 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 18–39 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 21–35 KU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 25–32 KU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 28–28 KU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKSU 32–25 KU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKSU 35–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 39–18 KU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 42–14 KU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 46–11 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 14–35 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 18–32 KU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 21–28 KU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 25–25 KU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKSU 28–21 KU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 32–18 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 35–14 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 39–11 KU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 42–7 KU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 11–32 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 14–28 KU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKSU 18–25 KU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKSU 21–21 KU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 25–18 KU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 28–14 KU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 32–11 KU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 35–7 KU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 39–4 KU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 7–28 KU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 11–25 KU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 14–21 KU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 18–18 KU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKSU 21–14 KU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 25–11 KU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 28–7 KU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 32–4 KU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 35–0 KU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalKU +21KU +7KSU +7KSU +21KSU +35margin →