CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET
Governor's Cup (Kansas)
Forecast win probability
KU 26.4%73.6% KSU
Projected margin
KSU by 9.7
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
KU 9 to KSU 28
Win probability
KSU 73.6%

Current team profiles

Kansas
Kansas State

When Kansas has the ball

Passing

KU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KU offense
#55
KSU defense
#60
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

KU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KU offense
#19
KSU defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.24
#19
0.10
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

KSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
KU offense
#28
KSU defense
#26
Success rates
48%
#28
35%
#26
Success rate
More metrics
0.25
#28
0.08
#80
EPA / play
1.34
#20
1.44
#134
Explosiveness
14%
#60
20%
#21
Havoc

When Kansas State has the ball

Passing

KSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KU defense
#71
KSU offense
#47
EPA comparison
0.15
#71
0.28
#47
Pass EPA

Rushing

KSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KU defense
#27
KSU offense
#9
EPA comparison
-0.07
#27
0.27
#9
Rush EPA

Drive success

KSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
KU defense
#20
KSU offense
#12
Success rates
35%
#20
51%
#12
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#30
0.27
#25
EPA / play
1.27
#92
1.17
#98
Explosiveness
20%
#19
9%
#6
Havoc

Current key players

Kansas
QBChase Jenkins
65 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
93.31/729
LBJaron Willis
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
81.8
Coverage
71.6
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.330/1796
WRNik McMillan
14 rec · 256 yds · 2 TD
85.324/2069
LBTrey Lathan
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.1
Coverage
83.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
83.554/1796
TEJack Utz
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Run blocking
84.2
Penalties
0
77.934/1017
RBJalen Dupree
103 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
77.8120/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Cole Ballard · QBout · 2026-10-02

    Ballard is dealing with a shoulder injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Yasin Willis · RBout · 2026-09-28

    Willis has been out of the lineup with an foot injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Justin Thurman · RBout · 2026-08-11

    Thurman has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kory Amachree · RBout · 2026-10-02

    Amachree is expected to miss the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Jaylen Mason · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mason is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jailen Butler · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Butler exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Wildcats on Saturday, October

  • Carter Moses · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Moses is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Kansas State
QBJacob Knuth
7 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
78.089/729
LBJacobi Oliphant Jr.
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.2
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
90.59/1796
LBAshton Moore
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.4
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
83.256/1796
RBJay Harris
88 yds · 3 TD · 6.3 YPC
80.374/1044
SAdrian Maddox
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.2
Coverage
74.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
77.0125/2969
CBMicheal Graham Jr.
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.7
Coverage
60.0
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
75.5177/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Will Anciaux · TEout · 2026-10-05

    Anciaux is nursing with a lower leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • John Pastore · OGout · 2026-08-21

    Pastore has been shut down for the remainder of the season with a lower leg injury.

  • Jacob Knuth · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Knuth is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Blake Barnett · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Barnett is bothered by a lower body injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Arley Morrell · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Morrell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Duff · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Duff is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Max Lovett · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lovett id dealing with an arm injury and it is unclear if he will play against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

KU
KSU
vs
Offense
93.3
#1 of 138
QB
78.0
#69 of 138
76.8
#57 of 138
RB
76.9
#55 of 138
78.9
#15 of 138
WR
67.5
#115 of 138
77.9
#30 of 138
TE
70.9
#57 of 138
77.5
#8 of 138
OL
80.3
#4 of 138
Defense
89.4
#1 of 138
DL
73.0
#72 of 138
83.2
#10 of 138
LB
83.5
#9 of 138
72.4
#66 of 138
DB
71.4
#78 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Kansas
opponent
Kansas State
A-0.1
OKST#52
+12.3H
N-7.0
ASU#65
+2.2A
A-10.0
TCU#36
-2.9A