AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:00 PM
#88Away
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
21p
#44Home
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
34p
TULN 19%81% KSU
Spread
KSU -13.1
Total
55
Moneyline
TULN+436KSU-436
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TULN advantageevenKSU advantage →
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
KSU +38
TULN run
TULN backs #82
TULN +6
KSU throw
KSU protection #103
KSU +19
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
KSU +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Elijah Hill
LT · TULN
EDGE · KSU
70.5
82.5
KSU +12
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · KSU
MLB · TULN
81.0
68.3
KSU +13
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · TULN
CB1 · KSU
59.8
84.6
KSU +25
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · KSU
CB1 · TULN
61.3
81.9
TULN +21
over the middle
Dawson Johnson
vs
Donovan McIntosh
TE · TULN
FS · KSU
61.2
67.2
KSU +6
over the middle
Garrett Oakley
vs
E'zaiah Shine
TE · KSU
FS · TULN
67.4
58.9
KSU +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427
Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKSU +13.195% interval: -10.8 to 3780% interval: -4.3 to 30.5-4+31TULN wins 19%KSU wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KSU 35–21 TULNKSU 32–46 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 35–42 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 39–39 TULN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 42–35 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKSU 46–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 49–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 53–25 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKSU 56–21 TULN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 60–18 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 28–42 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 32–39 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 35–35 TULN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 39–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 42–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 46–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 49–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 53–18 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 56–14 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 25–39 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 28–35 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKSU 32–32 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 35–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKSU 39–25 TULN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKSU 42–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 46–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKSU 49–14 TULN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 53–11 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 21–35 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 25–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKSU 28–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 32–25 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 35–21 TULN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesKSU 39–18 TULN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKSU 42–14 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKSU 46–11 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 49–7 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 18–32 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 21–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKSU 25–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 28–21 TULN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKSU 32–18 TULN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKSU 35–14 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKSU 39–11 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKSU 42–7 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 46–4 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 14–28 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 18–25 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 21–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKSU 25–18 TULN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 28–14 TULN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKSU 32–11 TULN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 35–7 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 39–4 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 42–0 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 11–25 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 14–21 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 18–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 21–14 TULN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 25–11 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 28–7 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKSU 32–4 TULN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 35–0 TULN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalTULN +14PKKSU +14KSU +28KSU +42margin →