AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#44Away
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
29p
#51Home
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
28p
KSU 52%48% CIN
Spread
KSU -0.8
Total
57
Moneyline
KSU-108CIN+108
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KSU advantageevenCIN advantage →
KSU throw
KSU protection #103CIN coverage #55
KSU +23
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
KSU +23
CIN throw
CIN protection #3
KSU +6
CIN run
CIN backs #64
CIN +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
Elijah Hill
LT · CIN
EDGE · KSU
97.1
82.5
CIN +15
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
Jonathan Thompson
RB · KSU
MLB · CIN
81.0
72.1
KSU +9
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · CIN
CB1 · KSU
64.7
84.6
KSU +20
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Ty Goodwill
X · KSU
CB1 · CIN
61.3
76.9
CIN +16
when CIN runs
Zylan Perry
vs
Mekhi Mason
RB · CIN
MLB · KSU
62.9
70.3
KSU +7
over the middle
Garrett Oakley
vs
Antwan Peek Jr.
TE · KSU
FS · CIN
67.4
65.6
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kansas State
opponent
Cincinnati
home+2.7
Houston#36
-5.6away
home-2.6
Arizona#26
-10.9away
away+0.3
Iowa State#56
-2.9away
away+6.6
Colorado#74
+8.4home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 17
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKSU +0.895% interval: -24.7 to 23.180% interval: -18.1 to 16.6-18+17KSU wins 52%CIN wins 48%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CIN 28–28 KSUCIN 25–53 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 28–49 KSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 32–46 KSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCIN 35–42 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 39–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCIN 42–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCIN 46–32 KSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 49–28 KSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 53–25 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 21–49 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 25–46 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCIN 28–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 32–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCIN 35–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCIN 39–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCIN 42–28 KSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCIN 46–25 KSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 49–21 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 18–46 KSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 21–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCIN 25–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 28–35 KSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCIN 32–32 KSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCIN 35–28 KSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCIN 39–25 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 42–21 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCIN 46–18 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 14–42 KSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 18–39 KSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 21–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 25–32 KSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 28–28 KSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCIN 32–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCIN 35–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCIN 39–18 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCIN 42–14 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 11–39 KSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 14–35 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCIN 18–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 21–28 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCIN 25–25 KSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCIN 28–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 32–18 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 35–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 39–11 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 7–35 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 11–32 KSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 14–28 KSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 18–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCIN 21–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 25–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCIN 28–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 32–11 KSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 35–7 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 4–32 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 7–28 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCIN 11–25 KSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 14–21 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 18–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 21–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 25–11 KSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 28–7 KSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 32–4 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalKSU +28KSU +14PKCIN +14CIN +28margin →