CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
#25Away
Arizona
5-1 · AVR 69.4
28p
#37Home
Kansas State
3-2 · AVR 66.6
27p
Forecast win probability
ARIZ 54.9%45.1% KSU
Projected margin
ARIZ by 1.5
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
ARIZ 20 to KSU 17
Win probability
ARIZ 54.9%

Current team profiles

Arizona
Kansas State

When Arizona has the ball

Passing

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ offense
#28
KSU defense
#60
EPA comparison
0.39
#28
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ offense
#61
KSU defense
#93
EPA comparison
0.13
#61
0.10
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ offense
#21
KSU defense
#26
Success rates
49%
#21
35%
#26
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#32
0.08
#80
EPA / play
1.22
#77
1.44
#134
Explosiveness
14%
#52
20%
#21
Havoc

When Kansas State has the ball

Passing

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ defense
#17
KSU offense
#47
EPA comparison
-0.01
#17
0.28
#47
Pass EPA

Rushing

KSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ defense
#47
KSU offense
#9
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.27
#9
Rush EPA

Drive success

KSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ defense
#27
KSU offense
#12
Success rates
35%
#27
51%
#12
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#28
0.27
#25
EPA / play
1.42
#131
1.17
#98
Explosiveness
16%
#63
9%
#6
Havoc

Current key players

Arizona
QBNoah Fifita
1398 yds · 13 TD · 3 INT
83.452/729
LBDash Fifita
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
56.6
Coverage
71.5
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
84.743/1796
CBJay'Vion Cole
17 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
76.6
Targets allowed
27
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
105
Passer rating allowed
73.8
Missed tackles
2
78.390/2969
WRGiovanni Richardson
15 rec · 170 yds · 0 TD
77.089/2069
WRTre Spivey
22 rec · 314 yds · 4 TD
76.1107/2069
RBIsmail Mahdi
72 yds · 0 TD · 6.0 YPC
74.7180/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Tre Spivey · WRout · 2026-10-04

    Spivey has been out of commission due to ankle injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Daylen Austin · Sout · 2026-09-25

    Austin has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Giovanni Richardson · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Richardson is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cole Rusk · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Rusk is laid up with an lower leg injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cornelius Warren III · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Warren III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Max Harris · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harris is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Scotty Brennan · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Brennan is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

Kansas State
QBJacob Knuth
7 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
78.089/729
LBJacobi Oliphant Jr.
1 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.2
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
90.59/1796
LBAshton Moore
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.4
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
83.256/1796
RBJay Harris
88 yds · 3 TD · 6.3 YPC
80.374/1044
SAdrian Maddox
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.2
Coverage
74.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
77.0125/2969
CBMicheal Graham Jr.
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.7
Coverage
60.0
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
75.5177/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Will Anciaux · TEout · 2026-10-05

    Anciaux is nursing with a lower leg injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.

  • John Pastore · OGout · 2026-08-21

    Pastore has been shut down for the remainder of the season with a lower leg injury.

  • Jacob Knuth · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Knuth is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Blake Barnett · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Barnett is bothered by a lower body injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Arley Morrell · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Morrell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Duff · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Duff is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will take the field against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

  • Max Lovett · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lovett id dealing with an arm injury and it is unclear if he will play against Jayhawks Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ARIZ
KSU
vs
Offense
83.4
#46 of 138
QB
78.0
#69 of 138
74.2
#80 of 138
RB
76.9
#55 of 138
74.4
#39 of 138
WR
67.5
#115 of 138
63.4
#101 of 138
TE
70.9
#57 of 138
75.2
#17 of 138
OL
80.3
#4 of 138
Defense
72.0
#86 of 138
DL
73.0
#72 of 138
74.8
#61 of 138
LB
83.5
#9 of 138
70.9
#84 of 138
DB
71.4
#78 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Arizona
opponent
Kansas State
H+27.0
CIN#59
-5.0A
A+10.0
WSU#101
+27.0H
H+7.1
ISU#56
-2.4A
H+11.7
ASU#65
+2.2A
H+6.5
TCU#36
-2.9A