AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#26Away
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
29p
#44Home
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
27p
ARIZ 56%44% KSU
Spread
ARIZ -2.6
Total
56
Moneyline
ARIZ-129KSU+129
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARIZ advantageevenKSU advantage →
ARIZ throw
KSU +12
ARIZ run
ARIZ +11
KSU throw
KSU protection #103ARIZ coverage #5
ARIZ +9
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
ARIZ +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · KSU
MLB · ARIZ
81.0
84.0
ARIZ +3
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · KSU
CB1 · ARIZ
61.3
101.6
ARIZ +40
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
Elijah Hill
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · KSU
76.2
82.5
KSU +6
over the middle
Garrett Oakley
vs
Johno Price
TE · KSU
FS · ARIZ
67.4
75.7
ARIZ +8
when ARIZ throws
Giovanni Richardson
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · ARIZ
CB1 · KSU
52.5
84.6
KSU +32
over the middle
Cole Rusk
vs
Donovan McIntosh
TE · ARIZ
FS · KSU
69.2
67.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287
Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arizona
opponent
Kansas State
home+5.9
TCU#32
-4.2away
home+10.9
Cincinnati#51
+0.8away
home+10.4
Iowa State#56
+0.3away
home+9.6
Arizona State#43
-0.5away
away+13.1
Washington State#85
+13.0home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARIZ +2.695% interval: -26.5 to 21.380% interval: -20 to 14.8-20+15ARIZ wins 56%KSU wins 44%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KSU 28–28 ARIZKSU 25–53 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 28–49 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 32–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 35–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 39–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 42–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 46–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKSU 49–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 53–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesKSU 21–49 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 25–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKSU 28–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKSU 32–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 35–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 39–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 42–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 46–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 49–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 18–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 21–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKSU 25–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKSU 28–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 32–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKSU 35–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 39–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 42–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 46–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 14–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 18–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 21–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKSU 25–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKSU 28–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKSU 32–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 35–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 39–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 42–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 11–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKSU 14–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 18–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKSU 21–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKSU 25–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKSU 28–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKSU 32–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKSU 35–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKSU 39–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKSU 7–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 11–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKSU 14–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 18–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKSU 21–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKSU 25–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKSU 28–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKSU 32–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKSU 35–7 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKSU 4–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKSU 7–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKSU 11–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKSU 14–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKSU 18–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKSU 21–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKSU 25–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKSU 28–7 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKSU 32–4 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalARIZ +28ARIZ +14PKKSU +14KSU +28margin →