AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#44Away
Kansas State
0-0 · AVR 57.1
31p
#74Home
Colorado
0-0 · AVR 47.8
24p
KSU 68%32% COLO
Spread
KSU -6.6
Total
55
Moneyline
KSU-211COLO+211
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KSU advantageevenCOLO advantage →
KSU throw
KSU protection #103
COLO +15
KSU run
KSU line #103KSU backs #16
COLO +27
COLO throw
COLO QB #130COLO WR #24
KSU +37
COLO run
KSU +25

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when KSU runs
Joe Jackson
vs
Gideon ESPN Lampron
RB · KSU
MLB · COLO
81.0
83.8
dead even
when COLO throws
Danny Scudero
vs
Ja'son Prevard
X · COLO
CB1 · KSU
70.8
84.6
KSU +14
when KSU throws
Josh Manning
vs
Justin Eaglin
X · KSU
CB1 · COLO
61.3
87.2
COLO +26
off the edge· hunting Ponder
Taj White
vs
Elijah Hill
LT · COLO
EDGE · KSU
57.6
82.5
KSU +25
over the middle
Garrett Oakley
vs
Cree Thomas
TE · KSU
FS · COLO
67.4
65.4
dead even
when COLO runs
Micah Welch
vs
Mekhi Mason
RB · COLO
MLB · KSU
54.7
70.3
KSU +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kansas State
SJa'son Prevard
84.650/1427
RBJoe Jackson
81.020/514
CBZashon Rich
81.084/1427
QBAvery Johnson
73.331/308
SKoy Beasley
70.7221/1427
LBMekhi Mason
70.3138/878

also out — Fans Should Look, Kansas State offensive line (OL), Morley (OL), OL starter (OL), Pastore (OL), George Fitzpatrick (OL), John Pastore (OL), Tackle John Pastore +3 more

Colorado
DBJustin Eaglin
87.225/1427
LBGideon ESPN Lampron
83.829/878
WRDanny Scuderoquestionable
70.853/777
DBJason Stokes Jr.
69.4255/1427
LBLiona Lefau
67.6183/878
DBNaeten Mitchell
66.6318/1427

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kansas State
opponent
Colorado
home+17.7
Oklahoma State#97
+3.6away
away+0.8
Cincinnati#51
-8.4away
home+2.7
Houston#36
-6.5home
away-0.5
Arizona State#43
-9.7away

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKSU +6.695% interval: -30.5 to 17.380% interval: -24 to 10.7-24+11KSU wins 68%COLO wins 32%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KSU 32–25 COLOCOLO 21–56 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCOLO 25–53 KSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCOLO 28–49 KSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCOLO 32–46 KSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCOLO 35–42 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCOLO 39–39 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 42–35 KSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCOLO 46–32 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 49–28 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCOLO 18–53 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 21–49 KSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCOLO 25–46 KSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCOLO 28–42 KSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCOLO 32–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCOLO 35–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCOLO 39–32 KSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCOLO 42–28 KSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCOLO 46–25 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 14–49 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 18–46 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 21–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 25–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCOLO 28–35 KSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCOLO 32–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCOLO 35–28 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 39–25 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCOLO 42–21 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 11–46 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 14–42 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 18–39 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCOLO 21–35 KSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCOLO 25–32 KSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCOLO 28–28 KSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCOLO 32–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCOLO 35–21 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCOLO 39–18 KSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCOLO 7–42 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 11–39 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 14–35 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 18–32 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 21–28 KSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesCOLO 25–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 28–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCOLO 32–18 KSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCOLO 35–14 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 4–39 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCOLO 7–35 KSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCOLO 11–32 KSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCOLO 14–28 KSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCOLO 18–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCOLO 21–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCOLO 25–18 KSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCOLO 28–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCOLO 32–11 KSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCOLO 0–35 KSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCOLO 4–32 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 7–28 KSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCOLO 11–25 KSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCOLO 14–21 KSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCOLO 18–18 KSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCOLO 21–14 KSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCOLO 25–11 KSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCOLO 28–7 KSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalKSU +35KSU +21KSU +7COLO +7COLO +21margin →