CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 10 · Fri Nov 6 · 10:15 PM ET
Forecast win probability
TCU 33.3%66.7% ARIZ
Projected margin
ARIZ by 6.5
Projected total
52
80% outcome range
TCU 12 to ARIZ 25
Win probability
ARIZ 66.7%

Current team profiles

TCU
Arizona

When TCU has the ball

Passing

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU offense
#55
ARIZ defense
#17
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
-0.01
#17
Pass EPA

Rushing

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU offense
#113
ARIZ defense
#47
EPA comparison
-0.01
#113
0.00
#47
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU offense
#57
ARIZ defense
#27
Success rates
45%
#57
35%
#27
Success rate
More metrics
0.13
#77
-0.04
#28
EPA / play
1.24
#63
1.42
#131
Explosiveness
15%
#69
16%
#63
Havoc

When Arizona has the ball

Passing

TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU defense
#17
ARIZ offense
#28
EPA comparison
-0.01
#17
0.39
#28
Pass EPA

Rushing

TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU defense
#8
ARIZ offense
#61
EPA comparison
-0.17
#8
0.13
#61
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
TCU defense
#33
ARIZ offense
#21
Success rates
36%
#33
49%
#21
Success rate
More metrics
-0.10
#7
0.24
#32
EPA / play
0.96
#1
1.22
#77
Explosiveness
18%
#39
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

TCU
QBJaden Craig
1400 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
79.672/729
TEKari Ashley
25 rec · 374 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
55.0
Run blocking
64.8
Penalties
0
84.113/1017
SKaden McFadden
14 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
92.9
Coverage
67.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
82.838/2969
CBVernon Glover Jr.
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
91.3
Coverage
75.3
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
22.9
Missed tackles
1
79.175/2969
LBHudson Hooper
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.8
Coverage
81.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
78.3114/1796
LBKeylan Abrams
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.3131/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Michael Short · LBout · 2026-10-01

    Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jordan Dwyer · WRout · 2026-09-11

    Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • J. Pitchford · RBout · 2026-10-01

    Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday.

  • Kyle Lemmermann · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday.

Arizona
QBNoah Fifita
1398 yds · 13 TD · 3 INT
83.452/729
LBDash Fifita
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
56.6
Coverage
71.5
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
84.743/1796
CBJay'Vion Cole
17 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
76.6
Targets allowed
27
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
105
Passer rating allowed
73.8
Missed tackles
2
78.390/2969
WRGiovanni Richardson
15 rec · 170 yds · 0 TD
77.089/2069
WRTre Spivey
22 rec · 314 yds · 4 TD
76.1107/2069
RBIsmail Mahdi
72 yds · 0 TD · 6.0 YPC
74.7180/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Tre Spivey · WRout · 2026-10-04

    Spivey has been out of commission due to ankle injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Daylen Austin · Sout · 2026-09-25

    Austin has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Giovanni Richardson · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Richardson is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cole Rusk · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Rusk is laid up with an lower leg injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cornelius Warren III · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Warren III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Max Harris · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harris is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Scotty Brennan · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Brennan is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

TCU
ARIZ
vs
Offense
79.6
#58 of 138
QB
83.4
#46 of 138
74.7
#74 of 138
RB
74.2
#80 of 138
67.7
#112 of 138
WR
74.4
#39 of 138
84.1
#13 of 138
TE
63.4
#101 of 138
69.3
#58 of 138
OL
75.2
#17 of 138
Defense
77.0
#37 of 138
DL
72.0
#86 of 138
76.8
#46 of 138
LB
74.8
#61 of 138
77.8
#10 of 138
DB
70.9
#84 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

TCU
opponent
Arizona
H+8.1
WVU#86
+21.0A
H-7.0
BYU#18
-11.0A
H-8.8
UTAH#9
-5.0H
A-17.0
TTU#10
-13.2A
H+2.9
KSU#37
+1.5A