AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 3:15 AM
#32Away
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
26p
#26Home
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
32p
TCU 34%66% ARIZ
Spread
ARIZ -5.9
Total
57
Moneyline
TCU+192ARIZ-192
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TCU advantageevenARIZ advantage →
TCU throw
TCU protection #62ARIZ coverage #5
even
TCU run
ARIZ front #91ARIZ linebackers #5
ARIZ +7
ARIZ throw
ARIZ +11
ARIZ run
ARIZ +17

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · TCU
CB1 · ARIZ
84.9
101.6
ARIZ +17
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · TCU
MLB · ARIZ
73.4
84.0
ARIZ +11
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
Ansel Din-Mbuh
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · TCU
76.2
66.8
ARIZ +9
when ARIZ throws
Giovanni Richardson
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · ARIZ
CB1 · TCU
52.5
86.7
TCU +34
when ARIZ runs
Kedrick Reescano
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · ARIZ
MLB · TCU
59.7
75.3
TCU +16
over the middle
Cole Rusk
vs
Vernon Glover Jr.
TE · ARIZ
FS · TCU
69.2
63.2
ARIZ +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
TCU
opponent
Arizona
home-6.2
Utah#16
-2.8home
away-15.7
Texas Tech#5
-12.3away
home-4.1
BYU#19
-5.8away
home+4.2
Kansas State#44
+2.6away
home+11.5
West Virginia#66
+9.9away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARIZ +5.995% interval: -18 to 29.880% interval: -11.5 to 23.2-11+23TCU wins 34%ARIZ wins 66%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARIZ 32–25 TCUARIZ 28–49 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 32–46 TCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 35–42 TCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 39–39 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARIZ 42–35 TCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 46–32 TCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 49–28 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARIZ 53–25 TCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 56–21 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 25–46 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 28–42 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARIZ 32–39 TCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 35–35 TCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 39–32 TCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARIZ 42–28 TCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 46–25 TCU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 49–21 TCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 53–18 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 21–42 TCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 25–39 TCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARIZ 28–35 TCU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARIZ 32–32 TCU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARIZ 35–28 TCU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARIZ 39–25 TCU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARIZ 42–21 TCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARIZ 46–18 TCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARIZ 49–14 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 18–39 TCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 21–35 TCU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARIZ 25–32 TCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 28–28 TCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARIZ 32–25 TCU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesARIZ 35–21 TCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARIZ 39–18 TCU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 42–14 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARIZ 46–11 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 14–35 TCU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 18–32 TCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARIZ 21–28 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARIZ 25–25 TCU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARIZ 28–21 TCU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARIZ 32–18 TCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 35–14 TCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARIZ 39–11 TCU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARIZ 42–7 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 11–32 TCU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 14–28 TCU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARIZ 18–25 TCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARIZ 21–21 TCU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 25–18 TCU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 28–14 TCU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 32–11 TCU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARIZ 35–7 TCU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 39–4 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 7–28 TCU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 11–25 TCU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 14–21 TCU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARIZ 18–18 TCU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARIZ 21–14 TCU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARIZ 25–11 TCU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARIZ 28–7 TCU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARIZ 32–4 TCU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 35–0 TCU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalTCU +21TCU +7ARIZ +7ARIZ +21ARIZ +35margin →