AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#19Away
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
31p
#32Home
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
27p
BYU 61%39% TCU
Spread
BYU -4.1
Total
57
Moneyline
BYU-157TCU+157
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BYU advantageevenTCU advantage →
BYU throw
BYU WR #81
BYU +24
BYU run
BYU +32
TCU throw
TCU protection #62
even
TCU run
BYU +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Evan Johnson
X · TCU
CB1 · BYU
84.9
85.7
dead even
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · BYU
MLB · TCU
84.9
75.3
BYU +10
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · TCU
MLB · BYU
73.4
84.3
BYU +11
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Ansel Din-Mbuh
LT · BYU
EDGE · TCU
88.8
66.8
BYU +22
when BYU throws
Reggie Frischknecht
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · BYU
CB1 · TCU
52.0
86.7
TCU +35
over the middle
Walker Lyons
vs
Vernon Glover Jr.
TE · BYU
FS · TCU
68.0
63.2
BYU +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427
TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
BYU
opponent
TCU
home+5.8
Arizona#26
-5.9away
home+11.4
Baylor#42
-0.2away
away+10.2
UCF#52
+3.6away
away-4.5
Utah#16
-6.2home
away+7.9
Kansas#50
+6.2home

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBYU +4.195% interval: -28 to 19.880% interval: -21.5 to 13.3-21+13BYU wins 61%TCU wins 39%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BYU 32–25 TCUTCU 21–56 BYU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTCU 25–53 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 28–49 BYU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 32–46 BYU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTCU 35–42 BYU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 39–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 42–35 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 46–32 BYU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 49–28 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 18–53 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 21–49 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 25–46 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 28–42 BYU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 32–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTCU 35–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTCU 39–32 BYU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTCU 42–28 BYU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 46–25 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 14–49 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 18–46 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 21–42 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 25–39 BYU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 28–35 BYU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTCU 32–32 BYU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTCU 35–28 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 39–25 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 42–21 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 11–46 BYU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 14–42 BYU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 18–39 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 21–35 BYU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTCU 25–32 BYU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTCU 28–28 BYU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTCU 32–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 35–21 BYU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTCU 39–18 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 7–42 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 11–39 BYU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 14–35 BYU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTCU 18–32 BYU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 21–28 BYU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTCU 25–25 BYU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTCU 28–21 BYU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 32–18 BYU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 35–14 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 4–39 BYU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 7–35 BYU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 11–32 BYU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 14–28 BYU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 18–25 BYU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 21–21 BYU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 25–18 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 28–14 BYU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTCU 32–11 BYU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 0–35 BYU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTCU 4–32 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 7–28 BYU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 11–25 BYU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 14–21 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 18–18 BYU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 21–14 BYU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTCU 25–11 BYU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 28–7 BYU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalBYU +35BYU +21BYU +7TCU +7TCU +21margin →