CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
GRAM 0.1%99.9% TCU
Projected margin
TCU by 44.9
Projected total
59
80% outcome range
TCU 24 to TCU 66
Win probability
TCU 99.9%
FinalGRAM 7 · TCU 63model had +44.9, off by 11.1

Current team profiles

Grambling
TCU

When Grambling has the ball

Passing

No comparison
GRAM offense
—
TCU defense
#17
EPA comparison
—
-0.01
#17
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
GRAM offense
—
TCU defense
#8
EPA comparison
—
-0.17
#8
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
GRAM offense
#80
TCU defense
#33
Success rates
42%
#80
36%
#33
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#36
-0.10
#7
EPA / play
0.24
#12
0.96
#1
Explosiveness
—
18%
#39
Havoc

When TCU has the ball

Passing

No comparison
GRAM defense
—
TCU offense
#55
EPA comparison
—
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
GRAM defense
—
TCU offense
#113
EPA comparison
—
-0.01
#113
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
GRAM defense
#88
TCU offense
#57
Success rates
46%
#88
45%
#57
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#110
0.13
#77
EPA / play
0.22
#98
1.24
#63
Explosiveness
—
15%
#69
Havoc

Current key players

Grambling
QBReginald Johnson
581 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
87.013/370
LBMarcellius Johnson
29 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.2
Coverage
71.2
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
10
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
80.937/1054
QBHayden Benoit
34 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
78.947/370
DBJalen Guillard
17 tkl · 5 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
75.6
Coverage
76.9
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
91
Passer rating allowed
88.7
Missed tackles
0
77.880/1765
OLBrandon Elam
Player detail
Pass blocking
81.0
Run blocking
72.1
Penalties
0
77.420/1368
OLDavion Kinlaw
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.2
Run blocking
75.5
Penalties
0
76.230/1368
TCU
QBJaden Craig
1400 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
79.672/729
TEKari Ashley
25 rec · 374 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
55.0
Run blocking
64.8
Penalties
0
84.113/1017
SKaden McFadden
14 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
92.9
Coverage
67.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
82.838/2969
CBVernon Glover Jr.
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
91.3
Coverage
75.3
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
22.9
Missed tackles
1
79.175/2969
LBHudson Hooper
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.8
Coverage
81.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
78.3114/1796
LBKeylan Abrams
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.3131/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Michael Short · LBout · 2026-10-01

    Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jordan Dwyer · WRout · 2026-09-11

    Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • J. Pitchford · RBout · 2026-10-01

    Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday.

  • Kyle Lemmermann · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

GRAM
TCU
vs
Offense
87.0
#13 of 125
QB
79.6
#58 of 138
70.5
#74 of 126
RB
74.7
#74 of 138
72.2
#31 of 126
WR
67.7
#112 of 138
75.6
#17 of 124
TE
84.1
#13 of 138
72.2
#14 of 125
OL
69.3
#58 of 138
Defense
66.1
#111 of 126
DL
77.0
#37 of 138
70.2
#77 of 126
LB
76.8
#46 of 138
68.7
#95 of 126
DB
77.8
#10 of 138
Common opponents