CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 12:00 PM ET · neutral site
#111Away
North Carolina
0-0 · AVR 50.7
15
Final
#32Home
TCU
0-0 · AVR 63.5
10
Forecast win probability
UNC 35.8%64.2% TCU
Projected margin
TCU by 5.8
Projected total
50
80% outcome range
UNC 15 to TCU 26
Win probability
TCU 64.2%
FinalUNC 15 · TCU 10model had +5.8, off by 10.8

Current team profiles

North Carolina
TCU

When North Carolina has the ball

Passing

TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#78
TCU defense
#17
EPA comparison
0.19
#78
-0.01
#17
Pass EPA

Rushing

TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#93
TCU defense
#8
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
-0.17
#8
Rush EPA

Drive success

TCU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#64
TCU defense
#33
Success rates
44%
#64
36%
#33
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#91
-0.10
#7
EPA / play
1.13
#117
0.96
#1
Explosiveness
16%
#104
18%
#39
Havoc

When TCU has the ball

Passing

UNC defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#32
TCU offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.03
#32
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

UNC defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#88
TCU offense
#113
EPA comparison
0.08
#88
-0.01
#113
Rush EPA

Drive success

TCU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#100
TCU offense
#57
Success rates
43%
#100
45%
#57
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#47
0.13
#77
EPA / play
0.99
#4
1.24
#63
Explosiveness
13%
#119
15%
#69
Havoc

Current key players

North Carolina
QBMiles O'Neill
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
71.8141/729
DBGreg Smith
21 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
89.6
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
9
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
3
86.619/2969
DBJalon Thompson
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
79.9
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
80.259/2969
WRZamaurious Robertson
1 rec · 4 yds · 0 TD
78.270/2069
DBAde Willie
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
78.6
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
78.095/2969
WRJordan Shipp
20 rec · 273 yds · 0 TD
77.877/2069
Availability reports · 5
  • Jaxxon Warren · TEout · 2026-08-21

    Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jordan Washington · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jaylen Harvey · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carnell Warren · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Keeyun Chapman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

TCU
QBJaden Craig
1400 yds · 8 TD · 4 INT
79.672/729
TEKari Ashley
25 rec · 374 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
55.0
Run blocking
64.8
Penalties
0
84.113/1017
SKaden McFadden
14 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
92.9
Coverage
67.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
82.838/2969
CBVernon Glover Jr.
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
91.3
Coverage
75.3
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
22.9
Missed tackles
1
79.175/2969
LBHudson Hooper
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
71.8
Coverage
81.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
78.3114/1796
LBKeylan Abrams
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
60.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.3131/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Michael Short · LBout · 2026-10-01

    Short is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jordan Dwyer · WRout · 2026-09-11

    Dwyer is dealing with a foot injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • J. Pitchford · RBout · 2026-10-01

    Pitchford has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against Cougars on Saturday.

  • Kyle Lemmermann · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Lemmermann is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Cougars on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UNC
TCU
vs
Offense
71.8
#96 of 138
QB
79.6
#58 of 138
67.5
#131 of 138
RB
74.7
#74 of 138
72.0
#62 of 138
WR
67.7
#112 of 138
77.2
#33 of 138
TE
84.1
#13 of 138
66.5
#84 of 138
OL
69.3
#58 of 138
Defense
74.8
#55 of 138
DL
77.0
#37 of 138
71.9
#89 of 138
LB
76.8
#46 of 138
77.4
#12 of 138
DB
77.8
#10 of 138
Common opponents