AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 0 · Sat Aug 29 · 12:00 PM · neutral site
#61Away
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
15
#32Home
TCU
0-1 · AVR 61.0
10
UNC 11%89% TCU
Spread
TCU -19.2
Total
48
Moneyline
UNC+851TCU-851
Against the market
TCU +11.7line TCU -7.5
FinalUNC 15 · TCU 10model had +19.2, off by 24.2

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNC advantageevenTCU advantage →
UNC throw
TCU +29
UNC run
TCU +26
TCU throw
TCU protection #62
TCU +12
TCU run
TCU +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TCU throws
Jordan Dwyer
vs
Peyton Waters
X · TCU
CB1 · UNC
84.9
69.9
TCU +15
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
Kalen Carroll
X · UNC
CB1 · TCU
56.0
86.7
TCU +31
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Cade Bennett
vs
Melkart Abou Jaoude
LT · TCU
EDGE · UNC
51.8
87.3
UNC +35
when TCU runs
Jeremy Payne
vs
Daniel Anderson
RB · TCU
MLB · UNC
73.4
61.1
TCU +12
when UNC runs
Demon June
vs
Paul Oyewale
RB · UNC
MLB · TCU
56.8
75.3
TCU +18
over the middle
Jelani Thurman
vs
Vernon Glover Jr.
TE · UNC
FS · TCU
61.1
63.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

TCU
CBKalen Carroll
86.732/1427
WRJordan Dwyer
84.914/777
LBPaul Oyewale
75.3105/878
RBJeremy Payne
73.443/514
LBZach Chapmanprobable
69.9145/878
SRyan Yaites
65.2350/1427

also out — Jacob Fields (S), D. Ezukanma (WR)

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTCU +19.2MKTActual margin: UNC +5ACTUAL95% interval: -11 to 4780% interval: -1 to 38-1+38UNC wins 11%TCU wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TCU 35–14 UNCTCU 32–39 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 35–35 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 39–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 42–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 46–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 49–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTCU 53–18 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 56–14 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 60–11 UNC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTCU 28–35 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 32–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTCU 35–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTCU 39–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTCU 42–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTCU 46–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 49–14 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 53–11 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTCU 56–7 UNC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTCU 25–32 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 28–28 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 32–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 35–21 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTCU 39–18 UNC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTCU 42–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTCU 46–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTCU 49–7 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTCU 53–4 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 21–28 UNC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTCU 25–25 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTCU 28–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 32–18 UNC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTCU 35–14 UNC neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesTCU 39–11 UNC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTCU 42–7 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 46–4 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 49–0 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTCU 18–25 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 21–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTCU 25–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 28–14 UNC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTCU 32–11 UNC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTCU 35–7 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 39–4 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTCU 42–0 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TCU 14–21 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTCU 18–18 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTCU 21–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTCU 25–11 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTCU 28–7 UNC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTCU 32–4 UNC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTCU 35–0 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TCU 11–18 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTCU 14–14 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTCU 18–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTCU 21–7 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTCU 25–4 UNC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTCU 28–0 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalActual: TCU 10–15 UNCACTUALUNC +7TCU +7TCU +21TCU +35TCU +49margin →