CFB
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All rankings
ACC

North Carolina

Tar Heels3-211th in ACC
Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC · 50,500
TeamShort on both sides · underachieving the roster
OffenseWeak attackweak point: explosiveness, 117th
DefenseBend-don't-break · solid · built to defend the passweak point: generating pressure, 119th

The season

Best win
W 21-17 @ #30 Pittsburgh
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · won as a 31% underdog
Worst loss
L 20-28 @ #57 Clemson
Wk 3 · Sep 19 · model had 46%

Schedule

model 3/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Aug 29
    vsTCUNeutral
    W 15–10
    Win chance 33%Model margin -5.8Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsEast Tennessee State
    W 35–3
    Win chance >99%Model margin +39.1Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    atClemson
    L 20–28
    Win chance 46%Model margin -1.5Game details
  4. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsNotre Dame
    L 26–37
    Win chance 5%Model margin -22.6Game details
  5. Week 6 · Oct 10
    atPittsburgh
    W 21–17
    Win chance 31%Model margin -6.9Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atDuke
    Win chance 16%Model margin -13.5Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsSyracuse
    Win chance 68%Model margin +6.4Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsMiami
    Win chance 8%Model margin -19.1Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atUConn
    Win chance 52%Model margin +0.8Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsLouisville
    Win chance 37%Model margin -4.5Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atVirginia
    Win chance 26%Model margin -8.6Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsNC State
    Win chance 49%Model margin -0.3Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
35
#98 of 138
Defense efficiency
35
#93 of 138
Efficiency
#910.10
EPA / play
#470.01
#780.19
Pass
#320.03
#930.04
Rush
#880.08
#6444%
Success
#10043%
Big plays & havoc
#1171.13
Explosive
#40.99
#10416%
Havoc
#11913%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB96th
RB131st
WR62nd
TE33rd
OL84th
DL55th
LB89th
DB12th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Miles O'NeillSO
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
71.8
141st QB
RB
Demon JuneSO
128 yds · 4 TD · 4.1 YPC
68.8
358th RB
WR
Zamaurious RobertsonFR
1 rec · 4 yds · 0 TD
78.2
70th WR
WR
Jordan ShippJR
20 rec · 273 yds · 0 TD
77.8
77th WR
TE
Jelani ThurmanJR
16 rec · 233 yds · 3 TD
77.2
39th TE
Defense
LB
Derek McDonaldSR
36 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
73.9
216th LB
LB
Peyton SeelmannJR
29 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
73.8
227th LB
DB
Greg SmithSO
21 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
86.6
19th DB
DB
Jalon ThompsonJR
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
80.2
59th DB
DB
Ade WillieSR
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
78.0
95th DB

Injury report

2 out
out
Jaxxon WarrenTE

Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

59.9202508-21
out
Jordan WashingtonTE

Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

47.6202510-10
Ques.
Jaylen HarveyDL

Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

71.210-10
Ques.
Carnell WarrenWR

Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-10
Ques.
Keeyun ChapmanWR

Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-10

Past seasons

Year by year
-5.8 points since 2022
405365789061.7202271.7202362.9202455.82025
2022 61.72023 71.72024 62.92025 55.8

2025

4-8
D-I rank
#90
Rating
55.8
Listed games · 12
LWWLLLLWWLLL
231 pts scored294 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs TCUL 14–48
  2. W2 at CharlotteW 20–3
  3. W3 vs RichmondW 41–6
  4. W4 at UCFL 9–34
  5. W6 vs ClemsonL 10–38
  6. W8 at CaliforniaL 18–21
  7. W9 vs VirginiaL 16–17
  8. W10 at SyracuseW 27–10
  9. W11 vs StanfordW 20–15
  10. W12 at Wake ForestL 12–28
  11. W13 vs DukeL 25–32
  12. W14 at NC StateL 19–42

2024

6-6
D-I rank
#61
Rating
62.9
Listed games · 12
WWWLLLLWWWLL
388 pts scored338 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at MinnesotaW 19–17
  2. W2 vs CharlotteW 38–20
  3. W3 vs North Carolina CentralW 45–10
  4. W4 vs James MadisonL 50–70
  5. W5 at DukeL 20–21
  6. W6 vs PittsburghL 24–34
  7. W7 vs Georgia TechL 34–41
  8. W9 at VirginiaW 41–14
  9. W10 at Florida StateW 35–11
  10. W12 vs Wake ForestW 31–24
  11. W13 at Boston CollegeL 21–41
  12. W14 vs NC StateL 30–35

2023

8-4
D-I rank
#23
Rating
71.7
Listed games · 12
WWWWWWLLWWLL
439 pts scored325 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs South CarolinaW 31–17
  2. W2 vs App StateW 40–34
  3. W3 vs MinnesotaW 31–13
  4. W4 at PittsburghW 41–24
  5. W6 vs SyracuseW 40–7
  6. W7 vs MiamiW 41–31
  7. W8 vs VirginiaL 27–31
  8. W9 at Georgia TechL 42–46
  9. W10 vs CampbellW 59–7
  10. W11 vs DukeW 47–45
  11. W12 at ClemsonL 20–31
  12. W13 at NC StateL 20–39

2022

9-4
D-I rank
#66
Rating
61.7
Listed games · 13
WWWLWWWWWWLLL
455 pts scored403 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Florida A&MW 56–24
  2. W1 at App StateW 63–61
  3. W2 at Georgia StateW 35–28
  4. W4 vs Notre DameL 32–45
  5. W5 vs Virginia TechW 41–10
  6. W6 at MiamiW 27–24
  7. W7 at DukeW 38–35
  8. W9 vs PittsburghW 42–24
  9. W10 at VirginiaW 31–28
  10. W11 at Wake ForestW 36–34
  11. W12 vs Georgia TechL 17–21
  12. W13 vs NC StateL 27–30
  13. W14 vs ClemsonL 10–39