AVRCFB Model
All rankings
ACC

North Carolina

Tar Heels1-013th in ACC
Kenan Stadium · Chapel Hill, NC · 50,500
Rank —
61
Rating
50.8
TeamDefense-leaning roster · better than the record
OffenseUnprovenweak point: receiver, 121st
DefenseUnprovenweak point: linebacker, 124th

The season

1 games played
Best win
W 15-10 vs (N) #32 TCU
Wk 1 · Aug 29 · won as a 8% underdog
Undefeated.

Rank by week

Not enough weekly data

Schedule

model 0/1 straight up
WkOpponentWin probResultModelGame page
1
vs#32TCUN
8%
W 15-10
-19.2✗
›
2
vsEast Tennessee State
98%
Sep 12
+28.0
›
3
at#27Clemson
17%
Sep 19
-12.7
›
5
vs#4Notre Dame
6%
Oct 3
-20.7
›
6
at#33Pittsburgh
27%
Oct 10
-8.3
›
7
at#39DukeVictory Bell (Duke-UNC)
32%
Oct 17
-6.2
›
8
vs#71Syracuse
68%
Oct 24
+6.3
›
9
vs#6Miami
13%
Oct 31
-15.1
›
10
at#72UConn
52%
Nov 7
+0.7
›
11
vs#28Louisville
36%
Nov 14
-4.9
›
12
at#49Virginia
38%
Nov 21
-4.3
›
13
vs#34NC StateCarolina Rivalry
41%
Nov 28
-3.2
›

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Personnel
#12758
Talent
#6866
Position groups2025 player ratings
QB103rd
RB99th
WR121st
TE36th
OL98th
DL71st
LB124th
DB59th

Starting eleven

11 personnel
11 of 11 named7 ratedavg 47.92025 ratings
X56.0
J. Shipp
WR · JR159th
LT31.8
C. Kelly
OL · SR218th
LG—
A. Banfield
OL · JR
C—
A. Threatt
OL · SR
RG—
J. Mcroy
OL · SO
RT—
J. Hall
OL · JR
TE61.1
J. Thurman
TE · JR43rd
SL37.4
N. Leacock
WR · JR678th
Z41.4
T. Kekahuna
WR · JR579th
QB51.0
M. O'Neill
QB · SO150th
RB56.8
D. June
RB · SO146th

Roster

Core lineup

2025 ratings
Offense
QB
Miles O'NeillSO
51.0
150th QB
RB
Demon JuneSO
56.8
146th RB
WR
Jordan ShippJR
56.0
159th WR
WR
Trech KekahunaJR
41.4
579th WR
TE
Jelani ThurmanJR
61.1
43rd TE
Defense
LB
Daniel AndersonSO
61.1
267th LB
LB
Jonathan AgumaduSO
43.9
607th LB
DB
Peyton WatersSO
69.9
242nd DB
DB
Jaiden PattersonJR
68.6
271st DB
DB
Greg SmithSO
68.2
275th DB

Injury report

1 out
out
J. WarrenTE
08-21
questionable
B. HallRB
08-29
questionable
J. WashingtonTE
08-29

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

0%–1% playoff odds, on these results

Ranked by how far the result is likely to move their playoff odds. A close game against a good team moves more than a near-certain win, even when losing that one would hurt more.

W3
at#27Clemson
0% lose1% win
±0.1
likely move
in odds
20% to win
W7
at#39Duke
0% lose0% win
±0.1
likely move
in odds
34% to win
W11
vs#28Louisville
0% lose0% win
±0.1
likely move
in odds
37% to win
W6
at#33Pittsburgh
0% lose1% win
±0.1
likely move
in odds
28% to win
W9
vs#6Miami
0% lose1% win
±0.1
likely move
in odds
15% to win
W12
at#49Virginia
0% lose0% win
±0.1
likely move
in odds
38% to win
W13
vs#34NC State
0% lose0% win
±0.1
likely move
in odds
42% to win