AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#4Away
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
38p
#61Home
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
17p
ND 92%8% UNC
Spread
ND -20.7
Total
55
Moneyline
ND-1172UNC+1172
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ND advantageevenUNC advantage →
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
ND +15
ND run
UNC +11
UNC throw
ND +70
UNC run
ND +65

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
Leonard Moore
X · UNC
CB1 · ND
56.0
101.6
ND +46
over the middle
Jelani Thurman
vs
Luke Talich
TE · UNC
FS · ND
61.1
86.9
ND +26
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Peyton Waters
X · ND
CB1 · UNC
74.7
69.9
ND +5
when UNC runs
Demon June
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · UNC
MLB · ND
56.8
86.5
ND +30
over the middle
Jack Larsen
vs
Kaleb Cost
TE · ND
FS · UNC
60.8
67.3
UNC +6
off the edge· hunting O'Neill
Christo Kelly
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · UNC
EDGE · ND
31.8
88.4
ND +57

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Notre Dame
opponent
North Carolina
home+8.2
Miami#6
-15.1home
away+24.5
Syracuse#71
+6.3home

Projected margin

80% between -38 and -3
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +20.795% interval: -44.6 to 3.280% interval: -38.1 to -3.3-38-3ND wins 92%UNC wins 8%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 39–18 UNCUNC 14–63 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 18–60 ND neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUNC 21–56 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 25–53 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 28–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 32–46 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 35–42 ND neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNC 39–39 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNC 42–35 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 11–60 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 14–56 ND neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 18–53 ND neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 21–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNC 25–46 ND neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNC 28–42 ND neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNC 32–39 ND neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 35–35 ND neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 39–32 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 7–56 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 11–53 ND neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 14–49 ND neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 18–46 ND neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNC 21–42 ND neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUNC 25–39 ND neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 28–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 32–32 ND neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 35–28 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 4–53 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 7–49 ND neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 11–46 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 14–42 ND neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNC 18–39 ND neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNC 21–35 ND neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNC 25–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 28–28 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 32–25 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 0–49 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 4–46 ND neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 7–42 ND neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 11–39 ND neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 14–35 ND neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUNC 18–32 ND neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNC 21–28 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 25–25 ND neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 28–21 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UNC 0–42 ND neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 4–39 ND neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 7–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 11–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 14–28 ND neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 18–25 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUNC 21–21 ND neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 25–18 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UNC 0–35 ND neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUNC 4–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 7–28 ND neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNC 11–25 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 14–21 ND neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNC 18–18 ND neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUNC 21–14 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalND +49ND +35ND +21ND +7UNC +7margin →