CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
#1Away
Notre Dame
4-0 · AVR 85.1
37
Final
#70Home
North Carolina
2-1 · AVR 60.1
26
Forecast win probability
ND 92.5%7.5% UNC
Projected margin
ND by 22.6
Projected total
47
80% outcome range
ND 42 to ND 3
Win probability
ND 92.5%
FinalND 37 · UNC 26model had -22.6, off by 11.6

Current team profiles

Notre Dame
North Carolina

When Notre Dame has the ball

Passing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#8
UNC defense
#32
EPA comparison
0.54
#8
0.03
#32
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#19
UNC defense
#88
EPA comparison
0.24
#19
0.08
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#3
UNC defense
#100
Success rates
53%
#3
43%
#100
Success rate
More metrics
0.36
#4
0.01
#47
EPA / play
1.15
#107
0.99
#4
Explosiveness
10%
#9
13%
#119
Havoc

When North Carolina has the ball

Passing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#34
UNC offense
#78
EPA comparison
0.05
#34
0.19
#78
Pass EPA

Rushing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#2
UNC offense
#93
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#9
UNC offense
#64
Success rates
33%
#9
44%
#64
Success rate
More metrics
-0.09
#11
0.10
#91
EPA / play
1.20
#65
1.13
#117
Explosiveness
23%
#3
16%
#104
Havoc

Current key players

Notre Dame
QBCJ Carr
1197 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
92.45/729
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
13 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.2
Coverage
72.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
92.14/1796
SLuke Talich
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
88.3
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
52.5
Missed tackles
1
89.611/2969
WRDevin Fitzgerald
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
87.020/2069
RBJonaz Walton
228 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 YPC
84.542/1044
SJoey O'Brien
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.6
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
0
80.656/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Quincy Porter · WRout · 2026-09-28

    Porter is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Viliamu-Asa is nursing with a thumb injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Leonard Moore · CBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against BYU on Saturday, Saturday 17th.

  • Blake Hebert · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hebert is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

North Carolina
QBMiles O'Neill
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
71.8141/729
DBGreg Smith
21 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
89.6
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
9
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
3
86.619/2969
DBJalon Thompson
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
79.9
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
80.259/2969
WRZamaurious Robertson
1 rec · 4 yds · 0 TD
78.270/2069
DBAde Willie
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
78.6
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
78.095/2969
WRJordan Shipp
20 rec · 273 yds · 0 TD
77.877/2069
Availability reports · 5
  • Jaxxon Warren · TEout · 2026-08-21

    Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jordan Washington · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jaylen Harvey · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carnell Warren · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Keeyun Chapman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ND
UNC
vs
Offense
92.4
#5 of 138
QB
71.8
#96 of 138
83.8
#15 of 138
RB
67.5
#131 of 138
82.3
#5 of 138
WR
72.0
#62 of 138
59.4
#126 of 138
TE
77.2
#33 of 138
67.2
#77 of 138
OL
66.5
#84 of 138
Defense
83.8
#3 of 138
DL
74.8
#55 of 138
80.0
#22 of 138
LB
71.9
#89 of 138
80.1
#2 of 138
DB
77.4
#12 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Notre Dame
opponent
North Carolina
H+5.6
MIA#4
-19.1H
A+25.7
SYR#68
+6.4H