AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#6Away
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
33p
#61Home
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
18p
MIA 85%15% UNC
Spread
MIA -15.1
Total
52
Moneyline
MIA-578UNC+578
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MIA advantageevenUNC advantage →
MIA throw
MIA +34
MIA run
MIA +56
UNC throw
MIA +70
UNC run
MIA +67

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Melkart Abou Jaoude
LT · MIA
EDGE · UNC
87.5
87.3
dead even
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Peyton Waters
X · MIA
CB1 · UNC
87.0
69.9
MIA +17
when MIA runs
Mark Fletcher Jr.
vs
Daniel Anderson
RB · MIA
MLB · UNC
84.5
61.1
MIA +23
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
Xavier Lucas
X · UNC
CB1 · MIA
56.0
85.4
MIA +29
when UNC runs
Demon June
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · UNC
MLB · MIA
56.8
82.9
MIA +26
over the middle
Jelani Thurman
vs
Zechariah Poyser
TE · UNC
FS · MIA
61.1
77.9
MIA +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Miami
opponent
North Carolina
home+16.4
Duke#39
-6.2away
home+14.2
Pittsburgh#33
-8.3away
away+4.9
Clemson#27
-12.7away
away-8.2
Notre Dame#4
-20.7home

Projected margin

80% between -32 and 2
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIA +15.195% interval: -39 to 8.980% interval: -32.4 to 2.3-32+2MIA wins 85%UNC wins 15%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIA 32–18 UNCUNC 14–56 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 18–53 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 21–49 MIA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 25–46 MIA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNC 28–42 MIA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUNC 32–39 MIA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 35–35 MIA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNC 39–32 MIA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNC 42–28 MIA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUNC 11–53 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 14–49 MIA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 18–46 MIA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 21–42 MIA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUNC 25–39 MIA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUNC 28–35 MIA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 32–32 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 35–28 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 39–25 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUNC 7–49 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 11–46 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 14–42 MIA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNC 18–39 MIA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNC 21–35 MIA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNC 25–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 28–28 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 32–25 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 35–21 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 4–46 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 7–42 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 11–39 MIA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUNC 14–35 MIA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNC 18–32 MIA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUNC 21–28 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 25–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 28–21 MIA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUNC 32–18 MIA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUNC 0–42 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 4–39 MIA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 7–35 MIA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUNC 11–32 MIA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUNC 14–28 MIA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUNC 18–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUNC 21–21 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 25–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 28–14 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UNC 0–35 MIA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUNC 4–32 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 7–28 MIA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUNC 11–25 MIA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUNC 14–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUNC 18–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUNC 21–14 MIA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUNC 25–11 MIA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UNC 0–28 MIA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUNC 4–25 MIA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUNC 7–21 MIA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUNC 11–18 MIA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUNC 14–14 MIA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUNC 18–11 MIA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUNC 21–7 MIA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalMIA +42MIA +28MIA +14PKUNC +14margin →