CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:00 AM ET
#60Away
North Carolina
3-2 · AVR 61.7
21p
#50Home
Virginia
4-2 · AVR 63.1
31p
Forecast win probability
UNC 28.8%71.2% UVA
Projected margin
UVA by 8.6
Projected total
53
80% outcome range
UNC 10 to UVA 27
Win probability
UVA 71.2%

Current team profiles

North Carolina
Virginia

When North Carolina has the ball

Passing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#78
UVA defense
#20
EPA comparison
0.19
#78
0.00
#20
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#93
UVA defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
0.07
#84
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC offense
#64
UVA defense
#41
Success rates
44%
#64
37%
#41
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#91
-0.01
#38
EPA / play
1.13
#117
1.11
#25
Explosiveness
16%
#104
17%
#42
Havoc

When Virginia has the ball

Passing

UNC defense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#32
UVA offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.03
#32
0.29
#45
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#88
UVA offense
#63
EPA comparison
0.08
#88
0.12
#63
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UNC defense
#100
UVA offense
#62
Success rates
43%
#100
44%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#47
0.18
#55
EPA / play
0.99
#4
1.17
#98
Explosiveness
13%
#119
13%
#42
Havoc

Current key players

North Carolina
QBMiles O'Neill
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
71.8141/729
DBGreg Smith
21 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
68.1
Coverage
89.6
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
9
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
3
86.619/2969
DBJalon Thompson
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
64.7
Coverage
79.9
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
3
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
80.259/2969
WRZamaurious Robertson
1 rec · 4 yds · 0 TD
78.270/2069
DBAde Willie
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
78.6
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
6
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
78.095/2969
WRJordan Shipp
20 rec · 273 yds · 0 TD
77.877/2069
Availability reports · 5
  • Jaxxon Warren · TEout · 2026-08-21

    Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jordan Washington · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Jaylen Harvey · DLQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carnell Warren · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Keeyun Chapman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.

Virginia
QBEli Holstein
180 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
85.440/729
LBJustin Rowe
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.8
Coverage
94.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
94.13/1796
SKeke Adams
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
91.7
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
91.16/2969
TELukas Ungar
2 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.0
Run blocking
58.8
Penalties
0
86.010/1017
CBOmillio Agard
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.3
Coverage
79.2
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.4111/2969
DBPatrick Campbell
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.8241/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Jason Hammond · DLout · 2026-09-15

    Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Rico Flores Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Flores left previous game due to a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Peyton Lewis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Triston Ward · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ward is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Newton-Short · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Newton-Short is managing a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Stevens · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tim Hamann · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UNC
UVA
vs
Offense
71.8
#96 of 138
QB
85.4
#37 of 138
67.5
#131 of 138
RB
69.8
#122 of 138
72.0
#62 of 138
WR
69.4
#89 of 138
77.2
#33 of 138
TE
86.0
#10 of 138
66.5
#84 of 138
OL
81.1
#2 of 138
Defense
74.8
#55 of 138
DL
77.6
#29 of 138
71.9
#89 of 138
LB
78.8
#31 of 138
77.4
#12 of 138
DB
76.8
#17 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

North Carolina
opponent
Virginia
H-0.3
NCSU#63
+26.0H
A-13.5
DUKE#34
-2.2H
H+6.4
SYR#68
+3.0H