AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#61Away
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
26p
#49Home
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
30p
UNC 38%62% UVA
Spread
UVA -4.3
Total
56
Moneyline
UNC+163UVA-163
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNC advantageevenUVA advantage →
UNC throw
UVA +62
UNC run
UVA +53
UVA throw
UVA WR #93
UVA +5
UVA run
UVA +38

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Pribula
Noah Josey
vs
Melkart Abou Jaoude
LT · UVA
EDGE · UNC
77.5
87.3
UNC +10
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
Jam Jackson
X · UNC
CB1 · UVA
56.0
86.4
UVA +30
when UNC runs
Demon June
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · UNC
MLB · UVA
56.8
83.5
UVA +27
over the middle
Jelani Thurman
vs
Kevon Gray
TE · UNC
FS · UVA
61.1
70.7
UVA +10
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Daniel Anderson
RB · UVA
MLB · UNC
70.6
61.1
UVA +9
when UVA throws
Tyson Davis
vs
Peyton Waters
X · UVA
CB1 · UNC
53.4
69.9
UNC +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Carolina
opponent
Virginia
home-3.2
NC State#34
+26.0home
away-6.2
Duke#39
+0.6home
home+6.3
Syracuse#71
+8.1home

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUVA +4.395% interval: -19.6 to 28.280% interval: -13.1 to 21.7-13+22UNC wins 38%UVA wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UVA 32–25 UNCUVA 28–49 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 32–46 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 35–42 UNC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUVA 39–39 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 42–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 46–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 49–28 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 53–25 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 56–21 UNC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUVA 25–46 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 28–42 UNC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 32–39 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 35–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUVA 39–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUVA 42–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 46–25 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUVA 49–21 UNC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 53–18 UNC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 21–42 UNC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 25–39 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 28–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 32–32 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 35–28 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 39–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUVA 42–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 46–18 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 49–14 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 18–39 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 21–35 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 25–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 28–28 UNC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUVA 32–25 UNC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUVA 35–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUVA 39–18 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 42–14 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 46–11 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 14–35 UNC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 18–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 21–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUVA 25–25 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 28–21 UNC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUVA 32–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUVA 35–14 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 39–11 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 42–7 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 11–32 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 14–28 UNC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 18–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 21–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUVA 25–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 28–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 32–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 35–7 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 39–4 UNC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 7–28 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 11–25 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 14–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 18–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUVA 21–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 25–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 28–7 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUVA 32–4 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 35–0 UNC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNC +21UNC +7UVA +7UVA +21UVA +35margin →