AVRCFB Model
All rankings
ACC

Virginia

Cavaliers1-011th in ACC
Scott Stadium · Charlottesville, VA · 61,500
Rank —
49
Rating
55.7
TeamDefense-leaning roster · winning more than the play suggests
OffenseUnproven
DefenseStrong front seven, experienced secondary

The season

1 games played
Best win
W 34-8 vs #34 NC State
Wk 1 · Aug 29 · model had 81%
Undefeated.

Rank by week

Not enough weekly data

Schedule

model 1/1 straight up
WkOpponentWin probResultModelGame page
1
vs#34NC State
81%
W 34-8
+11.7✓
›
2
vsNorfolk State
99%
Sep 11
+29.8
›
3
vs#66West VirginiaN
63%
Sep 19
+4.5
›
4
vs#102Delaware
88%
Sep 26
+15.9
›
5
at#30Florida State
21%
Oct 3
-10.7
›
6
vs#71Syracuse
73%
Oct 10
+8.1
›
7
at#18SMU
15%
Oct 17
-14.1
›
8
vs#39Duke
52%
Oct 23
+0.6
›
9
at#46Wake Forest
43%
Oct 31
-2.4
›
11
vs#68California
71%
Nov 14
+7.6
›
12
vs#61North Carolina
63%
Nov 21
+4.3
›
13
at#57Virginia TechCommonwealth Cup
48%
Nov 28
-0.5
›

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Personnel
#7967
Talent
#3475
Position groups2025 player ratings
QB32nd
RB34th
WR93rd
TE71st
OL31st
DL22nd
LB37th
DB17th

Starting eleven

11 personnel
11 of 11 named10 ratedavg 60.22025 ratings
X53.4
T. Davis
WR · SR209th
LT77.5
N. Josey
OL · SR49th
LG73.2
M. Thomas
OL · SR62nd
C70.9
D. Metcalf
OL · SR68th
RG35.6
R. Brubaker
OL · SR197th
RT—
B. York
OL · JR
TE52.1
J. Rogers
TE · SO114th
SL46.8
I. Robinson
WR · SO417th
Z49.0
D. Martin
WR · JR341st
QB72.5
B. Pribula
QB · SR32nd
RB70.6
J. Middlebrook
RB · SR50th

Roster

Core lineup

2025 ratings
Offense
QB
Beau PribulaSR
72.5
32nd QB
RB
Jekail MiddlebrookSR
70.6
50th RB
WR
Tyson DavisSR
53.4
209th WR
WR
Da'Shawn MartinJR
49.0
341st WR
TE
John RogersSO
52.1
114th TE
Defense
LB
Kam RobinsonSR
83.5
30th LB
LB
Maddox MarcellusSR
69.9
146th LB
CB
Jam JacksonSR
86.4
33rd DB
S
Ethan MinterJR
79.1
99th DB
DB
Donavon PlattSR
77.8
118th DB

Injury report

16 out · 3 starters
out
Alex Dunn
08-27
out
Bull RichardsonDL
08-27
out
Chase MorrisonDL
08-27
out
Dillon Newton-ShortWR
08-27
out
Ezekiel LarryDL
08-27
out
Grant EllingerOL
08-27
out
Isaiah ReeseLB
08-27
out
Isaiah RobinsonWR
08-27
out
Jack StevensRB
08-27
out
Lukas UngarTE
08-27
out
Noah HartsoeOL
08-27
out
Rico Flores Jr.WR
08-27
out
Solomon BeebeRBstarter
08-27
out
Tim HamannK
08-27
out
Triston WardWR
08-27
out
Tyler SimmonsDL
08-27
questionable
Corey CostnerSstarter
08-27
questionable
Kam RobinsonLBstarter
08-27
probable
Jon AdairOL
08-25

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

0%–5% playoff odds, on these results

Ranked by how far the result is likely to move their playoff odds. A close game against a good team moves more than a near-certain win, even when losing that one would hurt more.

W7
at#18SMU
0% lose5% win
±0.9
likely move
in odds
17% to win
W8
vs#39Duke
0% lose2% win
±0.7
likely move
in odds
53% to win
W13
at#57Virginia Tech
0% lose2% win
±0.6
likely move
in odds
49% to win
W9
at#46Wake Forest
0% lose2% win
±0.6
likely move
in odds
43% to win
W5
at#30Florida State
1% lose3% win
±0.6
likely move
in odds
23% to win
W12
vs#61North Carolina
0% lose2% win
±0.5
likely move
in odds
62% to win
W11
vs#68California
0% lose2% win
±0.5
likely move
in odds
70% to win
W6
vs#71Syracuse
0% lose2% win
±0.5
likely move
in odds
71% to win