CFB
Model
All rankings
ACC

Virginia

Cavaliers4-29th in ACC
Scott Stadium · Charlottesville, VA · 61,500
TeamMiddle of the pack
OffenseSolid attackweak point: explosiveness, 98th
DefenseDisciplined · solid · built to defend the passweak point: run defense, 84th

The season

Best win
W 34-8 vs #63 NC State
Wk 1 · Aug 29 · model had 60%
Worst loss
L 27-38 vs (N) #86 West Virginia
Wk 3 · Sep 19 · lost as a 78% favorite

Schedule

model 4/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Aug 29
    vsNC State
    W 34–8
    Win chance 60%Model margin +3.2Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 11
    vsNorfolk State
    W 59–3
    Win chance >99%Model margin +52.5Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsWest VirginiaNeutral
    L 27–38
    Win chance 78%Model margin +10.3Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsDelaware
    W 42–3
    Win chance 89%Model margin +16.3Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    atFlorida State
    L 7–38
    Win chance 51%Model margin +0.5Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsSyracuse
    W 28–25
    Win chance 75%Model margin +9.0Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atSMU
    Win chance 23%Model margin -10.1Game details
  8. Week 8 · Oct 23
    vsDuke
    Win chance 44%Model margin -2.2Game details
  9. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atWake Forest
    Win chance 32%Model margin -6.2Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsCalifornia
    Win chance 84%Model margin +13.2Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsNorth Carolina
    Win chance 74%Model margin +8.6Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atVirginia Tech
    Win chance 53%Model margin +1.0Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
48
#76 of 138
Defense efficiency
71
#36 of 138
Efficiency
#550.18
EPA / play
#38-0.01
#450.29
Pass
#200.00
#630.12
Rush
#840.07
#6244%
Success
#4137%
Big plays & havoc
#981.17
Explosive
#251.11
#4213%
Havoc
#4217%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB37th
RB122nd
WR89th
TE10th
OL2nd
DL29th
LB31st
DB17th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Eli HolsteinSR
180 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
85.4
40th QB
RB
Jekail MiddlebrookSR
242 yds · 1 TD · 4.8 YPC
73.1
220th RB
WR
Isaiah RobinsonSO
5 rec · 98 yds · 1 TD
69.7
276th WR
WR
Rico Flores Jr.SR
11 rec · 152 yds · 1 TD
69.4
282nd WR
TE
Lukas UngarSR
2 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
86.0
10th TE
Defense
LB
Justin RoweSO
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
94.1
3rd LB
LB
Cayden Cook-CashJR
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
71.4
313th LB
S
Keke AdamsJR
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
91.1
6th DB
CB
Omillio AgardJR
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
77.4
111th DB
DB
Patrick CampbellSR
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
73.8
241st DB

Injury report

1 out
out
Jason HammondDL

Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

60.409-15
Ques.
Rico Flores Jr.WR

Flores left previous game due to a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

69.410-11
Ques.
Peyton LewisRB

Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

61.910-11
Ques.
Triston WardWR

Ward is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

60.610-11
Ques.
Dillon Newton-ShortWR

Newton-Short is managing a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

60.7202510-11
Ques.
Jack StevensRB

Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-11
Ques.
Tim HamannK

Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atSMU
    Playoff chance if win
    4.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 23
    vsDuke
    Playoff chance if win
    2.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atWake Forest
    Playoff chance if win
    2.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsCalifornia
    Playoff chance if win
    1.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsNorth Carolina
    Playoff chance if win
    1.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atVirginia Tech
    Playoff chance if win
    2.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.4%

Past seasons

Year by year
+11.6 points since 2022
405060708054.5202254.2202362.5202466.12025
2022 54.52023 54.22024 62.52025 66.1

2025

10-3
D-I rank
#49
Rating
66.1
Listed games · 13
WLWWWWWWWLWWL
418 pts scored267 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Coastal CarolinaW 48–7
  2. W2 at NC StateL 31–35
  3. W3 vs William & MaryW 55–16
  4. W4 vs StanfordW 48–20
  5. W5 vs Florida StateW 46–38
  6. W6 at LouisvilleW 30–27
  7. W8 vs Washington StateW 22–20
  8. W9 at North CarolinaW 17–16
  9. W10 at CaliforniaW 31–21
  10. W11 vs Wake ForestL 9–16
  11. W12 at DukeW 34–17
  12. W14 vs Virginia TechW 27–7
  13. W15 vs DukeL 20–27

2024

5-7
D-I rank
#63
Rating
62.5
Listed games · 12
WWLWWLLLWLLL
272 pts scored345 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs RichmondW 34–13
  2. W2 at Wake ForestW 31–30
  3. W3 vs MarylandL 13–27
  4. W4 at Coastal CarolinaW 43–24
  5. W6 vs Boston CollegeW 24–14
  6. W7 vs LouisvilleL 20–24
  7. W8 at ClemsonL 31–48
  8. W9 vs North CarolinaL 14–41
  9. W11 at PittsburghW 24–19
  10. W12 at Notre DameL 14–35
  11. W13 vs SMUL 7–33
  12. W14 at Virginia TechL 17–37

2023

3-9
D-I rank
#95
Rating
54.2
Listed games · 12
LLLLLWWLLLWL
279 pts scored405 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs TennesseeL 13–49
  2. W2 vs James MadisonL 35–36
  3. W3 at MarylandL 14–42
  4. W4 vs NC StateL 21–24
  5. W5 at Boston CollegeL 24–27
  6. W6 vs William & MaryW 27–13
  7. W8 at North CarolinaW 31–27
  8. W9 at MiamiL 26–29
  9. W10 vs Georgia TechL 17–45
  10. W11 at LouisvilleL 24–31
  11. W12 vs DukeW 30–27
  12. W13 vs Virginia TechL 17–55

2022

3-7
D-I rank
#101
Rating
54.5
Listed games · 10
WLWLLLWLLL
170 pts scored240 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs RichmondW 34–17
  2. W2 at IllinoisL 3–24
  3. W3 vs Old DominionW 16–14
  4. W4 at SyracuseL 20–22
  5. W5 at DukeL 17–38
  6. W6 vs LouisvilleL 17–34
  7. W8 at Georgia TechW 16–9
  8. W9 vs MiamiL 12–14
  9. W10 vs North CarolinaL 28–31
  10. W11 vs PittsburghL 7–37