CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 12:00 AM ET
Commonwealth Cup
#50Away
Virginia
4-2 · AVR 63.1
28p
#46Home
Virginia Tech
4-2 · AVR 64.0
27p
Forecast win probability
UVA 52.8%47.2% VT
Projected margin
UVA by 1.0
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
UVA 20 to VT 18
Win probability
UVA 52.8%

Current team profiles

Virginia
Virginia Tech

When Virginia has the ball

Passing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA offense
#45
VT defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.29
#45
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

VT defense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA offense
#63
VT defense
#16
EPA comparison
0.12
#63
-0.11
#16
Rush EPA

Drive success

VT defense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA offense
#62
VT defense
#15
Success rates
44%
#62
34%
#15
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#55
0.01
#47
EPA / play
1.17
#98
1.34
#113
Explosiveness
13%
#42
24%
#2
Havoc

When Virginia Tech has the ball

Passing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA defense
#20
VT offense
#24
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.40
#24
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA defense
#84
VT offense
#85
EPA comparison
0.07
#84
0.07
#85
Rush EPA

Drive success

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA defense
#41
VT offense
#43
Success rates
37%
#41
47%
#43
Success rate
More metrics
-0.01
#38
0.21
#44
EPA / play
1.11
#25
1.26
#45
Explosiveness
17%
#42
13%
#31
Havoc

Current key players

Virginia
QBEli Holstein
180 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
85.440/729
LBJustin Rowe
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.8
Coverage
94.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
94.13/1796
SKeke Adams
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
91.7
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
91.16/2969
TELukas Ungar
2 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.0
Run blocking
58.8
Penalties
0
86.010/1017
CBOmillio Agard
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.3
Coverage
79.2
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.4111/2969
DBPatrick Campbell
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.8241/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Jason Hammond · DLout · 2026-09-15

    Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Rico Flores Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Flores left previous game due to a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Peyton Lewis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Triston Ward · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ward is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Newton-Short · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Newton-Short is managing a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Stevens · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tim Hamann · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

Virginia Tech
QBBryce Baker
127 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
85.638/729
TELuke Reynolds
37 rec · 373 yds · 4 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
74.5
Run blocking
66.8
Penalties
0
86.49/1017
LBGeorge Ballance
7 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.5
Coverage
63.8
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
85.237/1796
LBMathieu Lamah
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.1
Coverage
61.5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.645/1796
DBDQ Smith
10 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.6
Coverage
76.5
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
8
Passer rating allowed
100.0
Missed tackles
0
78.193/2969
RBJeffrey Overton Jr.
455 yds · 4 TD · 5.9 YPC
77.9113/1044
Availability reports · 6
  • Kyle Altuner · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Altuner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Brody Meadows · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Meadows is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Bill Davis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Davis is dealing with an undisclosed injury and, and he is not expected to play against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Luke Stuewe · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stuewe is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Shamarius Peterkin · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Peterkin is dealing with a foot injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Takye Heath · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Heath is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will suit up against the Yellow Jackets on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UVA
VT
vs
Offense
85.4
#37 of 138
QB
85.6
#35 of 138
69.8
#122 of 138
RB
76.8
#58 of 138
69.4
#89 of 138
WR
66.4
#125 of 138
86.0
#10 of 138
TE
86.4
#9 of 138
81.1
#2 of 138
OL
72.2
#34 of 138
Defense
77.6
#29 of 138
DL
81.8
#7 of 138
78.8
#31 of 138
LB
83.0
#11 of 138
76.8
#17 of 138
DB
71.4
#77 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Virginia
opponent
Virginia Tech
H+13.2
CAL#90
-5.0A
A-10.1
SMU#39
-13.8A