AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
Commonwealth Cup
#49Away
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
29p
#57Home
Virginia Tech
0-0 · AVR 52.8
29p
UVA 49%51% VT
Spread
VT -0.5
Total
58
Moneyline
UVA+103VT-103
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UVA advantageevenVT advantage →
UVA throw
UVA WR #93
even
UVA run
UVA +17
VT throw
UVA +19
VT run
UVA +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when VT throws
Que'Sean Brown
vs
Jam Jackson
X · VT
CB1 · UVA
74.1
86.4
UVA +12
off the edge· hunting Grunkemeyer
Brody Meadows
vs
Fisher Camac
LT · VT
EDGE · UVA
73.1
84.8
UVA +12
off the edge· hunting Pribula
Noah Josey
vs
Kemari Copeland
LT · UVA
EDGE · VT
77.5
78.8
dead even
when VT runs
Marcellous Hawkins
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · VT
MLB · UVA
71.4
83.5
UVA +12
when UVA throws
Tyson Davis
vs
Jaquez White
X · UVA
CB1 · VT
53.4
90.0
VT +37
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Curtis Jones Jr.
RB · UVA
MLB · VT
70.6
68.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

Virginia Tech
CBJaquez White
90.012/1427
CBCam Chadwick Jr.
75.7146/1427
WRQue'Sean Brown
74.136/777
RBMarcellous Hawkins
71.446/514
LBCurtis Jones Jr.
68.4170/878
TELuke Reynolds
67.216/287

also out — Gabe Williams (LB)

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Virginia
opponent
Virginia Tech
home+7.6
California#68
+0.6away
away-14.1
SMU#18
-16.1away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKVT +0.595% interval: -24.1 to 25.180% interval: -17.4 to 18.4-17+18UVA wins 49%VT wins 51%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ VT 28–28 UVAVT 25–53 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 28–49 UVA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 32–46 UVA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesVT 35–42 UVA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 39–39 UVA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVT 42–35 UVA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 46–32 UVA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesVT 49–28 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVT 53–25 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 21–49 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 25–46 UVA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 28–42 UVA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVT 32–39 UVA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesVT 35–35 UVA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVT 39–32 UVA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVT 42–28 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVT 46–25 UVA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 49–21 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 18–46 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 21–42 UVA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 25–39 UVA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVT 28–35 UVA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVT 32–32 UVA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesVT 35–28 UVA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVT 39–25 UVA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 42–21 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesVT 46–18 UVA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVT 14–42 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 18–39 UVA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 21–35 UVA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesVT 25–32 UVA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesVT 28–28 UVA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesVT 32–25 UVA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesVT 35–21 UVA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesVT 39–18 UVA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVT 42–14 UVA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesVT 11–39 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 14–35 UVA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesVT 18–32 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesVT 21–28 UVA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesVT 25–25 UVA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesVT 28–21 UVA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesVT 32–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVT 35–14 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesVT 39–11 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesVT 7–35 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 11–32 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesVT 14–28 UVA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesVT 18–25 UVA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesVT 21–21 UVA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesVT 25–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesVT 28–14 UVA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesVT 32–11 UVA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesVT 35–7 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesVT 4–32 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesVT 7–28 UVA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesVT 11–25 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesVT 14–21 UVA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVT 18–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesVT 21–14 UVA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesVT 25–11 UVA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesVT 28–7 UVA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesVT 32–4 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUVA +28UVA +14PKVT +14VT +28margin →