CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 12:00 PM ET
Away
Virginia
4-2
24p
Home
SMU
4-1
34p
Forecast win probability
UVA 25.9%74.1% SMU
Projected margin
SMU by 10.1
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
UVA 8 to SMU 29
Win probability
SMU 74.1%

Current team profiles

Virginia
SMU

When Virginia has the ball

Passing

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA offense
#45
SMU defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.29
#45
0.05
#34
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA offense
#63
SMU defense
#81
EPA comparison
0.12
#63
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA offense
#62
SMU defense
#37
Success rates
44%
#62
37%
#37
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#55
0.04
#58
EPA / play
1.17
#98
1.38
#124
Explosiveness
13%
#42
22%
#5
Havoc

When SMU has the ball

Passing

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA defense
#20
SMU offense
#10
EPA comparison
0.00
#20
0.51
#10
Pass EPA

Rushing

UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA defense
#84
SMU offense
#116
EPA comparison
0.07
#84
-0.02
#116
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UVA defense
#41
SMU offense
#26
Success rates
37%
#41
49%
#26
Success rate
More metrics
-0.01
#38
0.22
#41
EPA / play
1.11
#25
1.27
#44
Explosiveness
17%
#42
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

Virginia
QBEli Holstein
180 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
85.440/729
LBJustin Rowe
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.8
Coverage
94.4
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
0
94.13/1796
SKeke Adams
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
91.7
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
0.0
Missed tackles
1
91.16/2969
TELukas Ungar
2 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
64.0
Run blocking
58.8
Penalties
0
86.010/1017
CBOmillio Agard
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.3
Coverage
79.2
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
77.4111/2969
DBPatrick Campbell
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
73.4
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
73.8241/2969
Availability reports · 7
  • Jason Hammond · DLout · 2026-09-15

    Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Rico Flores Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Flores left previous game due to a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Peyton Lewis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Triston Ward · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ward is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Dillon Newton-Short · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Newton-Short is managing a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Stevens · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Tim Hamann · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.

SMU
QBTy Hawkins
104 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
90.124/729
SJarvis Lee
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
90.9
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
139
Passer rating allowed
75.7
Missed tackles
2
87.318/2969
SJaylen Moses
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
50.1
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-2
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
1
86.520/2969
TEZack Turner
3 rec · 53 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.5
Run blocking
55.8
Penalties
0
78.631/1017
LBAlexander Kilgore
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.8
Coverage
69.8
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.3113/1796
LBJamal Anderson
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.4
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.6148/1796
Availability reports · 8
  • Ira Singleton · DLout · 2026-09-29

    Singleton is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Link Rhodes · RBout · 2026-08-26

    Rhodes has been out of the lineup with a tore ACL injury, and he will be out of commission for the remainder of the season.

  • Yamir Knight · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Knight is dealing with un undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston College.

  • Yannick Smith · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston

  • Nick Reed · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Reed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston.

  • Miles Uter · TEQues. · 2026-09-12

    Uter is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septembe

  • Christian Rhodes · RBQues. · 2026-09-12

    Rhodes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septem

  • EJ Kelly · RBprobable · 2026-09-17

    Kelly is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Louisville on Saturday, 19th September.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UVA
SMU
vs
Offense
85.4
#37 of 138
QB
90.1
#23 of 138
69.8
#122 of 138
RB
70.7
#115 of 138
69.4
#89 of 138
WR
73.9
#44 of 138
86.0
#10 of 138
TE
78.6
#28 of 138
81.1
#2 of 138
OL
66.6
#83 of 138
Defense
77.6
#29 of 138
DL
77.2
#33 of 138
78.8
#31 of 138
LB
71.9
#90 of 138
76.8
#17 of 138
DB
78.1
#9 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Virginia
opponent
SMU
A-31.0
FSU#49
+3.0A
A+1.0
VT#46
+13.8H
A-6.2
WAKE#26
+6.5H
H+3.0
SYR#68
+14.5A
H+13.2
CAL#90
+20.6H