AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#49Away
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
22p
#18Home
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
37p
UVA 17%83% SMU
Spread
SMU -14.1
Total
59
Moneyline
UVA+505SMU-505
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UVA advantageevenSMU advantage →
UVA throw
UVA WR #93
SMU +23
UVA run
SMU +10
SMU throw
UVA +6
SMU run
UVA +13

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Pribula
Noah Josey
vs
Marques White
LT · UVA
EDGE · SMU
77.5
83.4
SMU +6
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · SMU
MLB · UVA
77.0
83.5
UVA +6
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Jam Jackson
X · SMU
CB1 · UVA
67.8
86.4
UVA +19
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Brandon Miyazono
RB · UVA
MLB · SMU
70.6
79.3
SMU +9
off the edge· hunting Jennings
Addison Nichols
vs
Fisher Camac
LT · SMU
EDGE · UVA
64.4
84.8
UVA +20
over the middle
Randy Pittman
vs
Kevon Gray
TE · SMU
FS · UVA
70.6
70.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Virginia
opponent
SMU
away-0.5
Virginia Tech#57
+16.1home
away-2.4
Wake Forest#46
+14.2home
away-10.7
Florida State#30
+2.5away
home+7.6
California#68
+19.2home
home+8.1
Syracuse#71
+14.7away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +14.195% interval: -9.8 to 3880% interval: -3.3 to 31.5-3+32UVA wins 17%SMU wins 83%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SMU 35–21 UVASMU 32–46 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 35–42 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 39–39 UVA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSMU 42–35 UVA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSMU 46–32 UVA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSMU 49–28 UVA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSMU 53–25 UVA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSMU 56–21 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 60–18 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 28–42 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 32–39 UVA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 35–35 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 39–32 UVA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSMU 42–28 UVA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 46–25 UVA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSMU 49–21 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 53–18 UVA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 56–14 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 25–39 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 28–35 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 32–32 UVA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 35–28 UVA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 39–25 UVA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSMU 42–21 UVA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 46–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 49–14 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 53–11 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 21–35 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 25–32 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 28–28 UVA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 32–25 UVA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 35–21 UVA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSMU 39–18 UVA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 42–14 UVA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 46–11 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 49–7 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 18–32 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 21–28 UVA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 25–25 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 28–21 UVA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSMU 32–18 UVA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSMU 35–14 UVA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 39–11 UVA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 42–7 UVA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 46–4 UVA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 14–28 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 18–25 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 21–21 UVA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSMU 25–18 UVA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 28–14 UVA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSMU 32–11 UVA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSMU 35–7 UVA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSMU 39–4 UVA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 42–0 UVA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 11–25 UVA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 14–21 UVA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 18–18 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 21–14 UVA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 25–11 UVA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 28–7 UVA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 32–4 UVA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 35–0 UVA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalUVA +14PKSMU +14SMU +28SMU +42margin →