CFB
Model
All rankings
ACC

SMU

Mustangs4-16th in ACC
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · University Park, TX · 32,000
TeamWell-rounded
OffenseGrinding passing attack · solidweak point: run game, 116th
DefenseHavoc-driven · average · built to defend the passweak point: big plays allowed, 124th

The season

Best win
W 27-24 @ #49 Florida State
Wk 1 · Sep 7 · won as a 30% underdog
Worst loss
L 31-41 @ #27 Louisville
Wk 3 · Sep 19 · model had 46%

Schedule

model 4/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 7
    atFlorida State
    W 27–24
    Win chance 30%Model margin -7.1Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsUC Davis
    W 56–10
    Win chance 99%Model margin +33.8Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    atLouisville
    L 31–41
    Win chance 46%Model margin -1.5Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsMissouri State
    W 34–24
    Win chance 99%Model margin +29.2Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsBoston College
    W 25–16
    Win chance 93%Model margin +20.2Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsVirginia
    Win chance 77%Model margin +10.1Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsCalifornia
    Win chance 94%Model margin +20.6Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atSyracuse
    Win chance 86%Model margin +14.5Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsVirginia Tech
    Win chance 85%Model margin +13.8Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsWake Forest
    Win chance 69%Model margin +6.5Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 22
    atNotre Dame
    Win chance 15%Model margin -13.9Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atStanford
    Win chance 89%Model margin +16.7Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
73
#26 of 138
Defense efficiency
76
#29 of 138
Efficiency
#410.22
EPA / play
#580.04
#100.51
Pass
#340.05
#116-0.02
Rush
#810.06
#2649%
Success
#3737%
Big plays & havoc
#441.27
Explosive
#1241.38
#5214%
Havoc
#522%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB23rd
RB115th
WR44th
TE28th
OL83rd
DL33rd
LB90th
DB9th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Ty HawkinsFR
104 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
90.1
24th QB
RB
Kendrick RaphaelSR
418 yds · 6 TD · 5.4 YPC
76.5
140th RB
WR
Aljour Miles IIFR
1 rec · 3 yds · 1 TD
75.6
118th WR
WR
Yamir KnightSR
29 rec · 367 yds · 2 TD
74.8
129th WR
TE
Zack TurnerFR
3 rec · 53 yds · 1 TD
78.6
31st TE
Defense
LB
Alexander KilgoreSR
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
78.3
113th LB
LB
Jamal AndersonJR
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
76.6
148th LB
S
Jarvis LeeSR
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
87.3
18th DB
S
Jaylen MosesSO
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
86.5
20th DB
S
Tyren PolleySO
29 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
74.9
197th DB

Injury report

2 out
out
Ira SingletonDL

Singleton is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

71.309-29
out
Link RhodesRB

Rhodes has been out of the lineup with a tore ACL injury, and he will be out of commission for the remainder of the season.

—08-26
Ques.
Yamir KnightWR

Knight is dealing with un undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston College.

74.809-29
Ques.
Yannick SmithWR

Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston

68.409-29
Ques.
Nick ReedK

Reed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston.

60.510-01
Ques.
Miles UterTE

Uter is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septembe

60.009-12
Ques.
Christian RhodesRB

Rhodes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septem

—09-12
probable
EJ KellyRB

Kelly is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Louisville on Saturday, 19th September.

—09-17

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsVirginia
    Playoff chance if win
    25.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.8%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    vsCalifornia
    Playoff chance if win
    22.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.9%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    atSyracuse
    Playoff chance if win
    23.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    7.4%
  4. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsVirginia Tech
    Playoff chance if win
    23.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.1%
  5. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsWake Forest
    Playoff chance if win
    27.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.9%
  6. Week 12 · Nov 22
    atNotre Dame
    Playoff chance if win
    31.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    18.0%
  7. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atStanford
    Playoff chance if win
    22.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    6.5%

Past seasons

Year by year
+9.8 points since 2022
506070809061.9202268.9202378.1202471.62025
2022 61.92023 68.92024 78.12025 71.6

2025

8-4
D-I rank
#25
Rating
71.6
Listed games · 12
WLWLWWWLWWWL
395 pts scored248 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs East Texas A&MW 42–13
  2. W2 vs BaylorL 45–48
  3. W3 at Missouri StateW 28–10
  4. W4 at TCUL 24–35
  5. W6 vs SyracuseW 31–18
  6. W7 vs StanfordW 34–10
  7. W8 at ClemsonW 35–24
  8. W9 at Wake ForestL 12–13
  9. W10 vs MiamiW 26–20
  10. W11 at Boston CollegeW 45–13
  11. W13 vs LouisvilleW 38–6
  12. W14 at CaliforniaL 35–38

2024

11-2
D-I rank
#11
Rating
78.1
Listed games · 13
WWLWWWWWWWWWL
501 pts scored271 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at NevadaW 29–24
  2. W1 vs Houston ChristianW 59–7
  3. W2 vs BYUL 15–18
  4. W4 vs TCUW 66–42
  5. W5 vs Florida StateW 42–16
  6. W6 at LouisvilleW 34–27
  7. W8 at StanfordW 40–10
  8. W9 at DukeW 28–27
  9. W10 vs PittsburghW 48–25
  10. W12 vs Boston CollegeW 38–28
  11. W13 at VirginiaW 33–7
  12. W14 vs CaliforniaW 38–6
  13. W15 vs ClemsonL 31–34

2023

11-2
D-I rank
#29
Rating
68.9
Listed games · 13
WLWLWWWWWWWWW
528 pts scored226 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Louisiana TechW 38–14
  2. W2 at OklahomaL 11–28
  3. W3 vs Prairie View A&MW 69–0
  4. W4 at TCUL 17–34
  5. W5 vs CharlotteW 34–16
  6. W7 at East CarolinaW 31–10
  7. W8 at TempleW 55–0
  8. W9 vs TulsaW 69–10
  9. W10 at RiceW 36–31
  10. W11 vs North TexasW 45–21
  11. W12 at MemphisW 38–34
  12. W13 vs NavyW 59–14
  13. W14 at TulaneW 26–14

2022

7-5
D-I rank
#65
Rating
61.9
Listed games · 12
WWLLLWLWWWLW
461 pts scored416 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at North TexasW 48–10
  2. W2 vs LamarW 45–16
  3. W3 at MarylandL 27–34
  4. W4 vs TCUL 34–42
  5. W6 at UCFL 19–41
  6. W7 vs NavyW 40–34
  7. W8 vs CincinnatiL 27–29
  8. W9 at TulsaW 45–34
  9. W10 vs HoustonW 77–63
  10. W11 at South FloridaW 41–23
  11. W12 at TulaneL 24–59
  12. W13 vs MemphisW 34–31