CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 AM ET
#90Away
California
3-3 · AVR 56.1
17p
#39Home
SMU
4-1 · AVR 66.1
38p
Forecast win probability
CAL 9.6%90.4% SMU
Projected margin
SMU by 20.6
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
SMU 2 to SMU 39
Win probability
SMU 90.4%

Current team profiles

California
SMU

When California has the ball

Passing

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#92
SMU defense
#34
EPA comparison
0.13
#92
0.05
#34
Pass EPA

Rushing

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#123
SMU defense
#81
EPA comparison
-0.07
#123
0.06
#81
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL offense
#113
SMU defense
#37
Success rates
39%
#113
37%
#37
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#119
0.04
#58
EPA / play
1.28
#42
1.38
#124
Explosiveness
17%
#114
22%
#5
Havoc

When SMU has the ball

Passing

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#26
SMU offense
#10
EPA comparison
0.01
#26
0.51
#10
Pass EPA

Rushing

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#122
SMU offense
#116
EPA comparison
0.19
#122
-0.02
#116
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
CAL defense
#36
SMU offense
#26
Success rates
37%
#36
49%
#26
Success rate
More metrics
0.06
#70
0.22
#41
EPA / play
1.40
#128
1.27
#44
Explosiveness
14%
#97
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

California
QBDominic Ingrassia
— yds · — TD · — INT
76.3103/729
DBKingston Lopa
27 tkl · 1 PD · 5 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.6
Coverage
90.8
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
71
Passer rating allowed
42.1
Missed tackles
6
85.523/2969
RBAdam Mohammed
336 yds · 3 TD · 4.6 YPC
78.5100/1044
DBCam Sidney
9 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.1
Coverage
77.1
Targets allowed
10
Rec allowed
5
Yards allowed
37
Passer rating allowed
59.2
Missed tackles
1
76.6142/2969
DBIsaiah Crosby
24 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.7
Coverage
77.2
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
19
Passer rating allowed
22.2
Missed tackles
3
76.3150/2969
LBJoshua Pierce
6 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.8
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
71.6301/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Adam Mohammed · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Mohammed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is un determined if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sagapolutele is dealing with a head injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Vargas · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Vargas is dealing with a leg injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17t

  • Cole Boscia · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Boscia is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Rico Walker · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Walker is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Trevor Rogers · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rogers is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to established to play against the Demon Deacons on Saturday, October 17th.

SMU
QBTy Hawkins
104 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
90.124/729
SJarvis Lee
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
90.9
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
139
Passer rating allowed
75.7
Missed tackles
2
87.318/2969
SJaylen Moses
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
50.1
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-2
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
1
86.520/2969
TEZack Turner
3 rec · 53 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.5
Run blocking
55.8
Penalties
0
78.631/1017
LBAlexander Kilgore
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.8
Coverage
69.8
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.3113/1796
LBJamal Anderson
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.4
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.6148/1796
Availability reports · 8
  • Ira Singleton · DLout · 2026-09-29

    Singleton is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Link Rhodes · RBout · 2026-08-26

    Rhodes has been out of the lineup with a tore ACL injury, and he will be out of commission for the remainder of the season.

  • Yamir Knight · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Knight is dealing with un undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston College.

  • Yannick Smith · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston

  • Nick Reed · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Reed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston.

  • Miles Uter · TEQues. · 2026-09-12

    Uter is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septembe

  • Christian Rhodes · RBQues. · 2026-09-12

    Rhodes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septem

  • EJ Kelly · RBprobable · 2026-09-17

    Kelly is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Louisville on Saturday, 19th September.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

CAL
SMU
vs
Offense
76.3
#77 of 138
QB
90.1
#23 of 138
73.2
#93 of 138
RB
70.7
#115 of 138
66.0
#128 of 138
WR
73.9
#44 of 138
57.9
#132 of 138
TE
78.6
#28 of 138
67.0
#78 of 138
OL
66.6
#83 of 138
Defense
70.3
#102 of 138
DL
77.2
#33 of 138
70.6
#99 of 138
LB
71.9
#90 of 138
77.1
#15 of 138
DB
78.1
#9 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

California
opponent
SMU
A-13.2
UVA#50
+10.1H
H-11.4
WAKE#26
+6.5H
H+4.0
STAN#106
+16.7A
A+3.0
SYR#68
+14.5A
H+5.0
VT#46
+13.8H