AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#68Away
California
0-0 · AVR 49.3
18p
#18Home
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
37p
CAL 10%90% SMU
Spread
SMU -19.2
Total
54
Moneyline
CAL+916SMU-916
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CAL advantageevenSMU advantage →
CAL throw
CAL protection #105
SMU +15
CAL run
CAL line #105CAL backs #48
SMU +46
SMU throw
CAL coverage #52CAL pass rush #151
SMU +43
SMU run
CAL linebackers #81
SMU +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when CAL throws
Ian Strong
vs
Marcellus Barnes Jr.
X · CAL
CB1 · SMU
78.7
80.1
dead even
when CAL runs
Adam Mohammed
vs
Brandon Miyazono
RB · CAL
MLB · SMU
69.4
79.3
SMU +10
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Tristan Jernigan
RB · SMU
MLB · CAL
77.0
69.7
SMU +7
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Cam Sidney
X · SMU
CB1 · CAL
67.8
78.5
CAL +11
over the middle
Dorian Thomas
vs
Tyren Polley
TE · CAL
FS · SMU
63.0
76.6
SMU +14
over the middle
Randy Pittman
vs
Khamani Hudson
TE · SMU
FS · CAL
70.6
61.9
SMU +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
California
QBJaron-Keawe Sagapolutele
79.323/308
WRIan Strong
78.725/777
DBCam Sidney
78.5107/1427
DBIsaiah Crosby
74.0165/1427
DBAiden Manutai
69.9243/1427
LBTristan Jernigan
69.7149/878
SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
California
opponent
SMU
away-7.6
Virginia#49
+14.1home
home-0.6
Virginia Tech#57
+16.1home
away-2.0
Syracuse#71
+14.7away
home-2.5
Wake Forest#46
+14.2home
home+9.2
Stanford#96
+20.9away

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +19.295% interval: -4.7 to 43.180% interval: 1.8 to 36.6+2+37CAL wins 10%SMU wins 90%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SMU 39–18 CALSMU 35–42 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 39–39 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 42–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 46–32 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 49–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 53–25 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 56–21 CAL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 60–18 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 63–14 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 32–39 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 35–35 CAL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSMU 39–32 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 42–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSMU 46–25 CAL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSMU 49–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSMU 53–18 CAL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSMU 56–14 CAL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSMU 60–11 CAL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSMU 28–35 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 32–32 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSMU 35–28 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSMU 39–25 CAL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSMU 42–21 CAL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSMU 46–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSMU 49–14 CAL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSMU 53–11 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSMU 56–7 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 25–32 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 28–28 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 32–25 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 35–21 CAL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSMU 39–18 CAL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSMU 42–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 46–11 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 49–7 CAL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 53–4 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 21–28 CAL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSMU 25–25 CAL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSMU 28–21 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 32–18 CAL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSMU 35–14 CAL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSMU 39–11 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 42–7 CAL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSMU 46–4 CAL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 49–0 CAL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSMU 18–25 CAL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSMU 21–21 CAL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSMU 25–18 CAL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSMU 28–14 CAL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSMU 32–11 CAL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSMU 35–7 CAL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSMU 39–4 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 42–0 CAL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)SMU 14–21 CAL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSMU 18–18 CAL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSMU 21–14 CAL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSMU 25–11 CAL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSMU 28–7 CAL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSMU 32–4 CAL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSMU 35–0 CAL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalCAL +7SMU +7SMU +21SMU +35SMU +49margin →