AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Mon Sep 7 · 7:30 PM
#18Away
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
28p
#30Home
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 62.6
26p
SMU 58%42% FSU
Spread
SMU -2.5
Total
54
Moneyline
SMU-137FSU+137
Against the market
with itline SMU -2.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SMU advantageevenFSU advantage →
SMU throw
SMU +19
SMU run
FSU +5
FSU throw
FSU WR #3FSU protection #74
SMU +24
FSU run
SMU +28

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FSU throws
Duce Robinson
vs
Marcellus Barnes Jr.
X · FSU
CB1 · SMU
87.7
80.1
FSU +8
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Blake Nichelson
RB · SMU
MLB · FSU
77.0
79.5
dead even
off the edge· hunting Sperry
Xavier Chaplin
vs
Marques White
LT · FSU
EDGE · SMU
68.0
83.4
SMU +15
when FSU runs
Quintrevion Wisner
vs
Brandon Miyazono
RB · FSU
MLB · SMU
68.8
79.3
SMU +10
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Nehemiah Chandler
X · SMU
CB1 · FSU
67.8
73.6
FSU +6
over the middle
Landen Thomas
vs
Tyren Polley
TE · FSU
FS · SMU
59.4
76.6
SMU +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Florida State
WRDuce Robinson
87.74/777
WRMicahi Danzy
86.98/777
LBBlake Nichelson
79.560/878
LBChris Jones
73.9113/878
DBNehemiah Chandler
73.6168/1427
DBAshlynd Barker
71.8195/1427

also out — Daniel Lyons, Malachi Marshall (QB), DB Transfer, Karson Hobbs, Devin Carter (WR), FSU freshman wide receiver (WR), Mike Norvell (WR), Dexter Carter Speaks +1 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
SMU
opponent
Florida State
home+20.0
Boston College#79
+11.6away
home+14.1
Virginia#49
+10.7home
away+3.5
Louisville#28
+0.1away

Projected margin

80% between -22 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +2.5MKT95% interval: -34 to 2880% interval: -22.1 to 16-22+16SMU wins 58%FSU wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FSU 28–28 SMUFSU 25–53 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 28–49 SMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFSU 32–46 SMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 35–42 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 39–39 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 42–35 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFSU 46–32 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFSU 49–28 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 53–25 SMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFSU 21–49 SMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFSU 25–46 SMU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesFSU 28–42 SMU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesFSU 32–39 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFSU 35–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFSU 39–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFSU 42–28 SMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFSU 46–25 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 49–21 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 18–46 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 21–42 SMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFSU 25–39 SMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFSU 28–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFSU 32–32 SMU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesFSU 35–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFSU 39–25 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFSU 42–21 SMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFSU 46–18 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 14–42 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 18–39 SMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 21–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFSU 25–32 SMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFSU 28–28 SMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFSU 32–25 SMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFSU 35–21 SMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFSU 39–18 SMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFSU 42–14 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 11–39 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 14–35 SMU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFSU 18–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFSU 21–28 SMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFSU 25–25 SMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesFSU 28–21 SMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFSU 32–18 SMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFSU 35–14 SMU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesFSU 39–11 SMU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesFSU 7–35 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 11–32 SMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFSU 14–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFSU 18–25 SMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesFSU 21–21 SMU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesFSU 25–18 SMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFSU 28–14 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFSU 32–11 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFSU 35–7 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFSU 4–32 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFSU 7–28 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFSU 11–25 SMU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesFSU 14–21 SMU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesFSU 18–18 SMU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesFSU 21–14 SMU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesFSU 25–11 SMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFSU 28–7 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFSU 32–4 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalSMU +28SMU +14PKFSU +14FSU +28margin →