CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Mon Sep 7 · 7:30 PM ET
#19Away
SMU
0-0 · AVR 67.2
27
Final
#43Home
Florida State
0-0 · AVR 60.9
24
Forecast win probability
SMU 32.8%67.2% FSU
Projected margin
FSU by 7.1
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
SMU 13 to FSU 28
Win probability
FSU 67.2%
FinalSMU 27 · FSU 24model had +7.1, off by 10.1

Current team profiles

SMU
Florida State

When SMU has the ball

Passing

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU offense
#10
FSU defense
#84
EPA comparison
0.51
#10
0.19
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

FSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU offense
#116
FSU defense
#112
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.15
#112
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU offense
#26
FSU defense
#88
Success rates
49%
#26
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#41
0.16
#110
EPA / play
1.27
#44
1.31
#106
Explosiveness
14%
#52
16%
#68
Havoc

When Florida State has the ball

Passing

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU defense
#34
FSU offense
#72
EPA comparison
0.05
#34
0.22
#72
Pass EPA

Rushing

FSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU defense
#81
FSU offense
#8
EPA comparison
0.06
#81
0.28
#8
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU defense
#37
FSU offense
#57
Success rates
37%
#37
45%
#57
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#58
0.22
#40
EPA / play
1.38
#124
1.38
#11
Explosiveness
22%
#5
15%
#74
Havoc

Current key players

SMU
QBTy Hawkins
104 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
90.124/729
SJarvis Lee
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
90.9
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
139
Passer rating allowed
75.7
Missed tackles
2
87.318/2969
SJaylen Moses
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
50.1
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-2
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
1
86.520/2969
TEZack Turner
3 rec · 53 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.5
Run blocking
55.8
Penalties
0
78.631/1017
LBAlexander Kilgore
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.8
Coverage
69.8
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.3113/1796
LBJamal Anderson
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.4
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.6148/1796
Availability reports · 8
  • Ira Singleton · DLout · 2026-09-29

    Singleton is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Link Rhodes · RBout · 2026-08-26

    Rhodes has been out of the lineup with a tore ACL injury, and he will be out of commission for the remainder of the season.

  • Yamir Knight · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Knight is dealing with un undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston College.

  • Yannick Smith · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston

  • Nick Reed · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Reed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston.

  • Miles Uter · TEQues. · 2026-09-12

    Uter is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septembe

  • Christian Rhodes · RBQues. · 2026-09-12

    Rhodes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septem

  • EJ Kelly · RBprobable · 2026-09-17

    Kelly is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Louisville on Saturday, 19th September.

Florida State
QBAshton Daniels
1111 yds · 6 TD · 6 INT
77.794/729
RBOusmane Kromah
477 yds · 5 TD · 5.9 YPC
87.322/1044
LBBlake Nichelson
3 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.1
Coverage
64.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.3175/1796
DBAntonio Cromartie Jr.
4 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
74.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
74.0234/2969
LBKaron Maycock
4 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
77.4
Coverage
64.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
10
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
71.4312/1796
WRJayvan Boggs
13 rec · 257 yds · 1 TD
71.1225/2069
Availability reports · 4
  • Samuel Singleton Jr. · RBout · 2026-09-21

    Singleton is managing a lower body injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Tae'Shaun Gelsey · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Gelsey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Devin Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carter is hampered with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Gavin Markey · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Markey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Hurricanes on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SMU
FSU
vs
Offense
90.1
#23 of 138
QB
77.7
#71 of 138
70.7
#115 of 138
RB
82.2
#22 of 138
73.9
#44 of 138
WR
68.3
#102 of 138
78.6
#28 of 138
TE
61.0
#112 of 138
66.6
#83 of 138
OL
66.4
#85 of 138
Defense
77.2
#33 of 138
DL
67.7
#127 of 138
71.9
#90 of 138
LB
72.0
#87 of 138
78.1
#9 of 138
DB
68.8
#114 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

SMU
opponent
Florida State
H+10.1
UVA#50
+31.0H
A-10.0
LOU#27
-24.0A
H+9.0
BC#121
+17.3A