CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET
#16Away
SMU
2-0 · AVR 73.5
31
Final
#29Home
Louisville
1-1 · AVR 70.0
41
Forecast win probability
SMU 45.6%54.4% LOU
Projected margin
LOU by 1.5
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
SMU 17 to LOU 19
Win probability
LOU 54.4%
FinalSMU 31 · LOU 41model had +1.5, off by 8.5

Current team profiles

SMU
Louisville

When SMU has the ball

Passing

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU offense
#10
LOU defense
#116
EPA comparison
0.51
#10
0.33
#116
Pass EPA

Rushing

LOU defense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU offense
#116
LOU defense
#47
EPA comparison
-0.02
#116
0.00
#47
Rush EPA

Drive success

SMU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU offense
#26
LOU defense
#74
Success rates
49%
#26
41%
#74
Success rate
More metrics
0.22
#41
0.12
#93
EPA / play
1.27
#44
1.25
#86
Explosiveness
14%
#52
14%
#104
Havoc

When Louisville has the ball

Passing

LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU defense
#34
LOU offense
#15
EPA comparison
0.05
#34
0.45
#15
Pass EPA

Rushing

LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU defense
#81
LOU offense
#17
EPA comparison
0.06
#81
0.25
#17
Rush EPA

Drive success

LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
SMU defense
#37
LOU offense
#18
Success rates
37%
#37
50%
#18
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#58
0.34
#6
EPA / play
1.38
#124
1.39
#9
Explosiveness
22%
#5
15%
#84
Havoc

Current key players

SMU
QBTy Hawkins
104 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT
90.124/729
SJarvis Lee
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
90.9
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
139
Passer rating allowed
75.7
Missed tackles
2
87.318/2969
SJaylen Moses
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
50.1
Coverage
90.0
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-2
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
1
86.520/2969
TEZack Turner
3 rec · 53 yds · 1 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
68.5
Run blocking
55.8
Penalties
0
78.631/1017
LBAlexander Kilgore
25 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.8
Coverage
69.8
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
78.3113/1796
LBJamal Anderson
12 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
72.4
Coverage
72.1
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
14
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
76.6148/1796
Availability reports · 8
  • Ira Singleton · DLout · 2026-09-29

    Singleton is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Link Rhodes · RBout · 2026-08-26

    Rhodes has been out of the lineup with a tore ACL injury, and he will be out of commission for the remainder of the season.

  • Yamir Knight · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Knight is dealing with un undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston College.

  • Yannick Smith · WRQues. · 2026-09-29

    Smith is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston

  • Nick Reed · KQues. · 2026-10-01

    Reed is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play Saturday against the Boston.

  • Miles Uter · TEQues. · 2026-09-12

    Uter is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septembe

  • Christian Rhodes · RBQues. · 2026-09-12

    Rhodes is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be available against Louisville on Saturday, Septem

  • EJ Kelly · RBprobable · 2026-09-17

    Kelly is dealing with an undisclosed injury , but he is likely to play against Louisville on Saturday, 19th September.

Louisville
QBLincoln Kienholz
1394 yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
83.951/729
LBTrent Carter
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
84.2
Coverage
72.8
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
90.013/1796
RBBraxton Jennings
31 yds · 1 TD · 7.8 YPC
86.326/1044
WRTre Richardson
28 rec · 445 yds · 2 TD
80.258/2069
LBJacob Smith
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.0
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
78.1117/1796
DBBrycen Scott
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
79.5
Coverage
72.1
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
92
Passer rating allowed
76.4
Missed tackles
0
74.6204/2969
Availability reports · 8
  • Antonio Watts · CBout · 2026-09-25

    Watts has been out of commission due to a knee injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kris Hughes · WRout · 2026-08-11

    Huges has been out of commission due to lower body injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Keyjuan Brown · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Brown is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Hamilton Atkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Atkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Elizjah Lewis · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Lewis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Anwar O'Neal · OGQues. · 2026-10-10

    O'Neal is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Montavin Quisenberry · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Quisenberry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Payton Cook · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Cook is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SMU
LOU
vs
Offense
90.1
#23 of 138
QB
83.9
#45 of 138
70.7
#115 of 138
RB
82.9
#21 of 138
73.9
#44 of 138
WR
74.4
#38 of 138
78.6
#28 of 138
TE
71.7
#52 of 138
66.6
#83 of 138
OL
63.9
#104 of 138
Defense
77.2
#33 of 138
DL
83.8
#4 of 138
71.9
#90 of 138
LB
79.3
#24 of 138
78.1
#9 of 138
DB
70.7
#87 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

SMU
opponent
Louisville
A+3.0
FSU#49
+24.0H
H+6.5
WAKE#26
-3.0H
A+14.5
SYR#68
+8.3A
A+16.7
STAN#106
+15.7H