AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM
#18Away
SMU
0-0 · AVR 69.4
30p
#28Home
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
27p
SMU 60%40% LOU
Spread
SMU -3.5
Total
57
Moneyline
SMU-148LOU+148
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SMU advantageevenLOU advantage →
SMU throw
LOU +7
SMU run
LOU +10
LOU throw
LOU WR #19
SMU +22
LOU run
SMU +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
Marcellus Barnes Jr.
X · LOU
CB1 · SMU
92.9
80.1
LOU +13
when SMU throws
Yannick Smith
vs
Antonio Watts
X · SMU
CB1 · LOU
67.8
91.0
LOU +23
off the edge· hunting Jennings
Addison Nichols
vs
Clev Lubin
LT · SMU
EDGE · LOU
64.4
93.1
LOU +29
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Brandon Miyazono
RB · LOU
MLB · SMU
73.6
79.3
SMU +6
off the edge· hunting Kienholz
Evan Wibberley
vs
Marques White
LT · LOU
EDGE · SMU
68.8
83.4
SMU +15
when SMU runs
Kendrick Raphael
vs
Jacob Smith
RB · SMU
MLB · LOU
77.0
67.9
SMU +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
SMU
QBKevin Jennings
82.117/308
CBMarcellus Barnes Jr.
80.190/1427
LBBrandon Miyazono
79.363/878
CBJaelyn Davis-Robinson
78.8103/1427
RBKendrick Raphael
77.032/514
SJimmy Wyrick
77.0124/1427

also out — Braylon Williams (LB), Abel Hoopii (OL), L. Rhodes (RB)

Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
SMU
opponent
Louisville
away+14.7
Syracuse#71
+8.7away
home+14.2
Wake Forest#46
+8.2home
away+2.5
Florida State#30
-0.1home
away+20.9
Stanford#96
+19.9home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKSMU +3.595% interval: -27.4 to 20.480% interval: -20.9 to 13.9-21+14SMU wins 60%LOU wins 40%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SMU 32–25 LOULOU 25–53 SMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 28–49 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 32–46 SMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLOU 35–42 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 39–39 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 42–35 SMU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLOU 46–32 SMU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLOU 49–28 SMU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLOU 53–25 SMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesLOU 21–49 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 25–46 SMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLOU 28–42 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 32–39 SMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLOU 35–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLOU 39–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLOU 42–28 SMU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLOU 46–25 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 49–21 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 18–46 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 21–42 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 25–39 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLOU 28–35 SMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLOU 32–32 SMU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLOU 35–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLOU 39–25 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 42–21 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 46–18 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 14–42 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 18–39 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 21–35 SMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLOU 25–32 SMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLOU 28–28 SMU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLOU 32–25 SMU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLOU 35–21 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 39–18 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 42–14 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 11–39 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 14–35 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 18–32 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLOU 21–28 SMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLOU 25–25 SMU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLOU 28–21 SMU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLOU 32–18 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 35–14 SMU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLOU 39–11 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 7–35 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 11–32 SMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 14–28 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 18–25 SMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLOU 21–21 SMU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLOU 25–18 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 28–14 SMU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLOU 32–11 SMU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLOU 35–7 SMU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLOU 4–32 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 7–28 SMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLOU 11–25 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 14–21 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 18–18 SMU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLOU 21–14 SMU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLOU 25–11 SMU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLOU 28–7 SMU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLOU 32–4 SMU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalSMU +28SMU +14PKLOU +14LOU +28margin →