CFB
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All rankings
ACC

Louisville

Cardinals3-33rd in ACC
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville, KY · 60,000
TeamCarried by the offense
OffenseEfficient and explosive · eliteweak point: avoiding disruption, 84th
DefenseStout against the run · weakweak point: pass defense, 116th

The season

Best win
W 41-31 vs #39 SMU
Wk 3 · Sep 19 · model had 55%
Worst loss
L 27-30 vs #26 Wake Forest
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · lost as a 83% favorite

Schedule

model 3/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 6
    vsOle MissNeutral
    L 38–41
    Win chance 25%Model margin -9.1Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 11
    vsVillanova
    W 59–13
    Win chance >99%Model margin +39.8Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsSMU
    W 41–31
    Win chance 55%Model margin +1.5Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsWake Forest
    L 27–30
    Win chance 83%Model margin +12.6Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    atNC State
    L 28–31
    Win chance 61%Model margin +3.7Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 9
    vsFlorida State
    W 44–20
    Win chance 49%Model margin -0.2Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atSyracuse
    Win chance 73%Model margin +8.3Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsStanford
    Win chance 88%Model margin +15.7Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atGeorgia Tech
    Win chance 61%Model margin +3.6Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atNorth Carolina
    Win chance 63%Model margin +4.5Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsPittsburgh
    Win chance 54%Model margin +1.5Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atKentucky
    Win chance 47%Model margin -1.0Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
92
#2 of 138
Defense efficiency
35
#93 of 138
Efficiency
#60.34
EPA / play
#930.12
#150.45
Pass
#1160.33
#170.25
Rush
#470.00
#1850%
Success
#7441%
Big plays & havoc
#91.39
Explosive
#861.25
#8415%
Havoc
#10414%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB45th
RB21st
WR38th
TE52nd
OL104th
DL4th
LB24th
DB87th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Lincoln KienholzJR
1394 yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
83.9
51st QB
RB
Braxton JenningsFR
31 yds · 1 TD · 7.8 YPC
86.3
26th RB
WR
Tre RichardsonSR
28 rec · 445 yds · 2 TD
80.2
58th WR
WR
Lawayne McCoyJR
17 rec · 342 yds · 4 TD
73.9
151st WR
TE
Hamilton AtkinsSO
— rec · — yds · — TD
71.7
71st TE
Defense
LB
Trent CarterSO
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
90.0
13th LB
LB
Jacob SmithSO
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
78.1
117th LB
DB
Brycen ScottJR
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
74.6
204th DB
DB
Kaleb BeasleyJR
35 tkl · 2 PD · 3 INT
74.1
223rd DB
DB
Tayon HollowaySR
14 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
69.5
471st DB

Injury report

2 out
out
Antonio WattsCB

Watts has been out of commission due to a knee injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

61.609-25
out
Kris HughesWR

Huges has been out of commission due to lower body injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

62.4202508-11
Ques.
Keyjuan BrownRB

Brown is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

75.110-10
Ques.
Hamilton AtkinsTE

Atkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

71.710-10
Ques.
Elizjah LewisWR

Lewis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

69.010-10
Ques.
Anwar O'NealOG

O'Neal is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

50.210-10
Ques.
Montavin QuisenberryWR

Quisenberry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

55.7202510-10
Ques.
Payton CookWR

Cook is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-10

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    atSyracuse
    Playoff chance if win
    1.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.0%
  2. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsStanford
    Playoff chance if win
    1.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.0%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atGeorgia Tech
    Playoff chance if win
    1.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atNorth Carolina
    Playoff chance if win
    1.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsPittsburgh
    Playoff chance if win
    1.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.0%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atKentucky
    Playoff chance if win
    1.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.5%

Past seasons

Year by year
+2.2 points since 2022
506070809069.1202269.8202374.9202471.42025
2022 69.12023 69.82024 74.92025 71.4

2025

8-4
D-I rank
#27
Rating
71.4
Listed games · 12
WWWWLWWWLLLW
362 pts scored253 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Eastern KentuckyW 51–17
  2. W2 vs James MadisonW 28–14
  3. W4 vs Bowling GreenW 40–17
  4. W5 at PittsburghW 34–27
  5. W6 vs VirginiaL 27–30
  6. W8 at MiamiW 24–21
  7. W9 vs Boston CollegeW 38–24
  8. W10 at Virginia TechW 28–16
  9. W11 vs CaliforniaL 26–29
  10. W12 vs ClemsonL 19–20
  11. W13 at SMUL 6–38
  12. W14 vs KentuckyW 41–0

2024

8-4
D-I rank
#13
Rating
74.9
Listed games · 12
WWWLLWLWWLWW
439 pts scored279 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Austin PeayW 62–0
  2. W2 vs Jacksonville StateW 49–14
  3. W4 vs Georgia TechW 31–19
  4. W5 at Notre DameL 24–31
  5. W6 vs SMUL 27–34
  6. W7 at VirginiaW 24–20
  7. W8 vs MiamiL 45–52
  8. W9 at Boston CollegeW 31–27
  9. W10 at ClemsonW 33–21
  10. W12 at StanfordL 35–38
  11. W13 vs PittsburghW 37–9
  12. W14 at KentuckyW 41–14

2023

10-3
D-I rank
#26
Rating
69.8
Listed games · 13
WWWWWWLWWWWLL
402 pts scored256 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Georgia TechW 39–34
  2. W2 vs Murray StateW 56–0
  3. W3 vs IndianaW 21–14
  4. W4 vs Boston CollegeW 56–28
  5. W5 at NC StateW 13–10
  6. W6 vs Notre DameW 33–20
  7. W7 at PittsburghL 21–38
  8. W9 vs DukeW 23–0
  9. W10 vs Virginia TechW 34–3
  10. W11 vs VirginiaW 31–24
  11. W12 at MiamiW 38–31
  12. W13 vs KentuckyL 31–38
  13. W14 vs Florida StateL 6–16

2022

7-5
D-I rank
#29
Rating
69.1
Listed games · 12
LWLWLWWWWLWL
326 pts scored242 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at SyracuseL 7–31
  2. W2 at UCFW 20–14
  3. W3 vs Florida StateL 31–35
  4. W4 vs South FloridaW 41–3
  5. W5 at Boston CollegeL 33–34
  6. W6 at VirginiaW 34–17
  7. W8 vs PittsburghW 24–10
  8. W9 vs Wake ForestW 48–21
  9. W10 vs James MadisonW 34–10
  10. W11 at ClemsonL 16–31
  11. W12 vs NC StateW 25–10
  12. W13 at KentuckyL 13–26