AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#28Away
Louisville
0-0 · AVR 63.9
28p
#34Home
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
29p
LOU 48%52% NCSU
Spread
NCSU -0.8
Total
57
Moneyline
LOU+109NCSU-109
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LOU advantageevenNCSU advantage →
LOU throw
LOU WR #19
LOU +35
LOU run
NCSU linebackers #64
LOU +37
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90
LOU +16
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49
LOU +32

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LOU throws
Tre Richardson
vs
King Mack
X · LOU
CB1 · NCSU
92.9
75.8
LOU +17
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
Antonio Watts
X · NCSU
CB1 · LOU
73.0
91.0
LOU +18
when LOU runs
Isaac Brown
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · LOU
MLB · NCSU
73.6
70.6
LOU +3
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Jacob Smith
RB · NCSU
MLB · LOU
72.5
67.9
NCSU +5
off the edge· hunting Bailey
Rylan Vann
vs
Clev Lubin
LT · NCSU
EDGE · LOU
42.5
93.1
LOU +51
over the middle
Preston Douglas
vs
Blake Ruffin
TE · NCSU
FS · LOU
59.2
61.9
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisville
WRTre Richardson
92.92/777
DBAntonio Watts
91.09/1427
DBTayon Holloway
81.082/1427
DBKoen Entringer
75.0153/1427
RBIsaac Brownout
73.642/514
LBJacob Smith
67.9178/878

also out — K. Hughes (WR), M. Quisenberry (WR)

NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisville
opponent
NC State
home-0.1
Florida State#30
-6.8away
home+19.9
Stanford#96
+13.2away
away+8.7
Syracuse#71
+12.0home
away+4.9
North Carolina#61
+3.2away
home+8.2
Wake Forest#46
+6.5home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNCSU +0.895% interval: -23.1 to 24.780% interval: -16.6 to 18.2-17+18LOU wins 48%NCSU wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NCSU 28–28 LOUNCSU 25–53 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 28–49 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 32–46 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 35–42 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 39–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 42–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 46–32 LOU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 49–28 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 53–25 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 21–49 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 25–46 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 28–42 LOU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 32–39 LOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 35–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 39–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNCSU 42–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 46–25 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNCSU 49–21 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 18–46 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 21–42 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNCSU 25–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 28–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 32–32 LOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 35–28 LOU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNCSU 39–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 42–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 46–18 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 14–42 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 18–39 LOU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNCSU 21–35 LOU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 25–32 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNCSU 28–28 LOU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNCSU 32–25 LOU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNCSU 35–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 39–18 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 42–14 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 11–39 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 14–35 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNCSU 18–32 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 21–28 LOU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 25–25 LOU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 28–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNCSU 32–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 35–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 39–11 LOU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 7–35 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 11–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 14–28 LOU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNCSU 18–25 LOU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNCSU 21–21 LOU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 25–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 28–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNCSU 32–11 LOU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNCSU 35–7 LOU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 4–32 LOU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 7–28 LOU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 11–25 LOU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 14–21 LOU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNCSU 18–18 LOU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 21–14 LOU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 25–11 LOU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 28–7 LOU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNCSU 32–4 LOU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalLOU +28LOU +14PKNCSU +14NCSU +28margin →