Passing
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU offense
- #15
- NCSU defense
- #122
EPA comparison
0.45
#15
0.36
#122
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
LOU 59.3%40.8% NCSU
- Projected margin
- LOU by 3.7
- Projected total
- 62
- 80% outcome range
- LOU 24 to NCSU 17
- Win probability
- LOU 59.3%
FinalLOU 28 · NCSU 31model had -3.7, off by 6.7
Current team profiles
Louisville
NC StateWhen Louisville has the ball
Rushing
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU offense
- #17
- NCSU defense
- #68
EPA comparison
0.25
#17
0.04
#68
Rush EPA
Drive success
LOU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU offense
- #18
- NCSU defense
- #88
Success rates
50%
#18
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.34
#6
0.16
#109
EPA / play
1.39
#9
1.30
#104
Explosiveness
15%
#84
16%
#65
Havoc
When NC State has the ball
Passing
NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU defense
- #116
- NCSU offense
- #44
EPA comparison
0.33
#116
0.31
#44
Pass EPA
Rushing
LOU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU defense
- #47
- NCSU offense
- #72
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.10
#72
Rush EPA
Drive success
NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- LOU defense
- #74
- NCSU offense
- #48
Success rates
41%
#74
46%
#48
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#93
0.19
#53
EPA / play
1.25
#86
1.24
#63
Explosiveness
14%
#104
15%
#79
Havoc
Current key players
LouisvilleQBLincoln Kienholz
1394 yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
83.951/729
LBTrent Carter
7 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 84.2
- Coverage
- 72.8
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
90.013/1796
RBBraxton Jennings
31 yds · 1 TD · 7.8 YPC
86.326/1044
WRTre Richardson
28 rec · 445 yds · 2 TD
80.258/2069
LBJacob Smith
1 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 78.0
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
78.1117/1796
DBBrycen Scott
13 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 79.5
- Coverage
- 72.1
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 7
- Yards allowed
- 92
- Passer rating allowed
- 76.4
- Missed tackles
- 0
74.6204/2969
Availability reports · 8
- Antonio Watts · CBout · 2026-09-25
Watts has been out of commission due to a knee injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Kris Hughes · WRout · 2026-08-11
Huges has been out of commission due to lower body injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.
- Keyjuan Brown · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Brown is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Hamilton Atkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Atkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Elizjah Lewis · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Lewis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Anwar O'Neal · OGQues. · 2026-10-10
O'Neal is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will suit up against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Montavin Quisenberry · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Quisenberry is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
- Payton Cook · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Cook is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against the Orange on Saturday, October 17th.
NC StateQBWill Wilson
33 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
86.134/729
RBDylan McCoy
73 yds · 1 TD · 18.2 YPC
94.11/1044
TEIan Flynt
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 67.9
- Run blocking
- 81.3
- Penalties
- 0
90.51/1017
LBZane Williams
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 83.7
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.728/1796
CBMichael Tate
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 77.5
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
78.485/2969
LBElijah Satchell
7 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.5
- Coverage
- 53.3
- Pressures
- 6
- Pass-rush snaps
- 41
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 1
75.4172/1796
Availability reports · 6
- Gus Ritchey · TEout · 2026-10-10
Ritchey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Tyreek Copper · WRout · 2026-10-10
Copper is bothered by a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Noah Moss · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Moss is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday, October
- Ian Flynt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Flynt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.
- Vander Ploog · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Ploog is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.
- Nick Konieczynski · KQues. · 2026-10-10
Konieczynski is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October
Position units
Position-unit comparison
LOULouisville
NCSUNC State
vs
Offense
83.9
#45 of 138
QB
Quarterback
86.1
#32 of 138
82.9
#21 of 138
RB
Running backs
92.4
#1 of 138
74.4
#38 of 138
WR
Receivers
68.1
#107 of 138
71.7
#52 of 138
TE
Tight ends
90.5
#1 of 138
63.9
#104 of 138
OL
Offensive line
73.9
#21 of 138
Defense
83.8
#4 of 138
DL
Defensive line
71.7
#89 of 138
79.3
#24 of 138
LB
Linebackers
78.8
#30 of 138
70.7
#87 of 138
DB
Secondary
72.7
#61 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Louisville
opponent
NC State
Hhome+24.0
FSUFlorida State#49-13.6Aaway
Hhome-3.0
WAKEWake Forest#26-24.0Hhome
Hhome+15.7
STANStanford#106+6.2Aaway
Aaway+4.5
UNCNorth Carolina#60+0.3Aaway
Aaway+8.3
SYRSyracuse#68+9.4Hhome