CFB
Model
All rankings
ACC

NC State

Wolfpack3-312th in ACC
Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh, NC · 58,000
TeamMiddle of the pack
OffensePassing attack · solid
DefenseStout against the run · poorweak point: pass defense, 122nd

The season

Best win
W 31-28 vs #27 Louisville
Wk 5 · Oct 3 · won as a 39% underdog
Worst loss
L 31-35 @ #58 Vanderbilt
Wk 3 · Sep 19 · model had 37%

Schedule

model 5/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Aug 29
    atVirginia
    L 8–34
    Win chance 41%Model margin -3.2Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 11
    vsRichmond
    W 73–0
    Win chance 99%Model margin +30.4Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    atVanderbilt
    L 31–35
    Win chance 37%Model margin -4.5Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsApp State
    W 41–31
    Win chance 72%Model margin +7.9Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    vsLouisville
    W 31–28
    Win chance 39%Model margin -3.7Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsWake Forest
    L 14–38
    Win chance 46%Model margin -1.2Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atStanford
    Win chance 68%Model margin +6.2Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsCalifornia
    Win chance 77%Model margin +10.2Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsDuke
    Win chance 35%Model margin -5.2Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsSyracuse
    Win chance 76%Model margin +9.4Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atFlorida State
    Win chance 16%Model margin -13.6Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atNorth Carolina
    Win chance 51%Model margin +0.3Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
61
#44 of 138
Defense efficiency
37
#88 of 138
Efficiency
#530.19
EPA / play
#1090.16
#440.31
Pass
#1220.36
#720.10
Rush
#680.04
#4846%
Success
#8842%
Big plays & havoc
#631.24
Explosive
#1041.30
#7915%
Havoc
#6516%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB32nd
RB1st
WR107th
TE1st
OL21st
DL89th
LB30th
DB61st

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Will WilsonSO
33 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
86.1
34th QB
RB
Dylan McCoyFR
73 yds · 1 TD · 18.2 YPC
94.1
1st RB
WR
Keenan JacksonJR
22 rec · 339 yds · 5 TD
72.2
190th WR
WR
Davion DozierSR
4 rec · 35 yds · 0 TD
66.5
401st WR
TE
Ian FlyntJR
— rec · — yds · — TD
90.5
1st TE
Defense
LB
Zane WilliamsJR
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
86.7
28th LB
LB
Elijah SatchellFR
7 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
75.4
172nd LB
CB
Michael TateSR
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
78.4
85th DB
S
Brody BarnhardtJR
12 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
73.5
254th DB
CB
Asaad Brown Jr.JR
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
71.9
332nd DB

Injury report

2 out
out
Gus RitcheyTE

Ritchey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

—10-10
out
Tyreek CopperWR

Copper is bothered by a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

—10-10
Ques.
Noah MossRB

Moss is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday, October

90.810-10
Ques.
Ian FlyntTE

Flynt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

90.510-10
Ques.
Vander PloogTE

Ploog is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

70.610-10
Ques.
Nick KonieczynskiK

Konieczynski is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October

54.5202510-10

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atStanford
    Playoff chance if win
    0.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  2. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsCalifornia
    Playoff chance if win
    0.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.0%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 7
    vsDuke
    Playoff chance if win
    1.2%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsSyracuse
    Playoff chance if win
    0.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atFlorida State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atNorth Carolina
    Playoff chance if win
    0.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%

Past seasons

Year by year
-2.3 points since 2022
505865738066.4202266.0202361.4202464.12025
2022 66.42023 66.02024 61.42025 64.1

2025

7-5
D-I rank
#54
Rating
64.1
Listed games · 12
WWWLLWLLWLWW
362 pts scored346 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs East CarolinaW 24–17
  2. W2 vs VirginiaW 35–31
  3. W3 at Wake ForestW 34–24
  4. W4 at DukeL 33–45
  5. W5 vs Virginia TechL 21–23
  6. W6 vs CampbellW 56–10
  7. W7 at Notre DameL 7–36
  8. W9 at PittsburghL 34–53
  9. W10 vs Georgia TechW 48–36
  10. W12 at MiamiL 7–41
  11. W13 vs Florida StateW 21–11
  12. W14 vs North CarolinaW 42–19

2024

6-6
D-I rank
#68
Rating
61.4
Listed games · 12
WLWLWLLWWLLW
350 pts scored366 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Western CarolinaW 38–21
  2. W2 vs TennesseeL 10–51
  3. W3 vs Louisiana TechW 30–20
  4. W4 at ClemsonL 35–59
  5. W5 vs Northern IllinoisW 24–17
  6. W6 vs Wake ForestL 30–34
  7. W7 vs SyracuseL 17–24
  8. W8 at CaliforniaW 24–23
  9. W10 vs StanfordW 59–28
  10. W11 vs DukeL 19–29
  11. W13 at Georgia TechL 29–30
  12. W14 at North CarolinaW 35–30

2023

9-3
D-I rank
#41
Rating
66.0
Listed games · 12
WLWWLWLWWWWW
322 pts scored242 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at UConnW 24–14
  2. W2 vs Notre DameL 24–45
  3. W3 vs VMIW 45–7
  4. W4 at VirginiaW 24–21
  5. W5 vs LouisvilleL 10–13
  6. W6 vs MarshallW 48–41
  7. W7 at DukeL 3–24
  8. W9 vs ClemsonW 24–17
  9. W10 vs MiamiW 20–6
  10. W11 at Wake ForestW 26–6
  11. W12 at Virginia TechW 35–28
  12. W13 vs North CarolinaW 39–20

2022

8-4
D-I rank
#41
Rating
66.4
Listed games · 12
WWWWLWLWWLLW
304 pts scored233 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at East CarolinaW 21–20
  2. W2 vs Charleston SouthernW 55–3
  3. W3 vs Texas TechW 27–14
  4. W4 vs UConnW 41–10
  5. W5 at ClemsonL 20–30
  6. W6 vs Florida StateW 19–17
  7. W7 at SyracuseL 9–24
  8. W9 vs Virginia TechW 22–21
  9. W10 vs Wake ForestW 30–21
  10. W11 vs Boston CollegeL 20–21
  11. W12 at LouisvilleL 10–25
  12. W13 at North CarolinaW 30–27