Passing
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #28
- NCSU defense
- #122
EPA comparison
0.39
#28
0.36
#122
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
DUKE 62.8%37.2% NCSU
- Projected margin
- DUKE by 5.2
- Projected total
- 57
- 80% outcome range
- DUKE 24 to NCSU 13
- Win probability
- DUKE 62.8%
Current team profiles
Duke
NC StateWhen Duke has the ball
Rushing
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #21
- NCSU defense
- #68
EPA comparison
0.23
#21
0.04
#68
Rush EPA
Drive success
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #60
- NCSU defense
- #88
Success rates
44%
#60
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.29
#19
0.16
#109
EPA / play
1.34
#19
1.30
#104
Explosiveness
10%
#7
16%
#65
Havoc
When NC State has the ball
Passing
NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #60
- NCSU offense
- #44
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
0.31
#44
Pass EPA
Rushing
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #14
- NCSU offense
- #72
EPA comparison
-0.12
#14
0.10
#72
Rush EPA
Drive success
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #43
- NCSU offense
- #48
Success rates
37%
#43
46%
#48
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#46
0.19
#53
EPA / play
1.16
#36
1.24
#63
Explosiveness
17%
#52
15%
#79
Havoc
Current key players
DukeQBDan Mahan
126 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
90.618/729
WRPaxon Kettering
1 rec · 32 yds · 0 TD
90.16/2069
RBNate Sheppard
644 yds · 6 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.237/1044
LBElliott Schaper
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.8
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.250/1796
WRJonah Burton
13 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
81.942/2069
TEJeremiah Hasley
13 rec · 195 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 67.1
- Run blocking
- 72.0
- Penalties
- 0
78.332/1017
Availability reports · 3
- Cosme Salas · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Salas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Lawrence Gardner · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Qeanu Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Johnson is hampered up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
NC StateQBWill Wilson
33 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
86.134/729
RBDylan McCoy
73 yds · 1 TD · 18.2 YPC
94.11/1044
TEIan Flynt
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 67.9
- Run blocking
- 81.3
- Penalties
- 0
90.51/1017
LBZane Williams
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 83.7
- Coverage
- 60.0
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.728/1796
CBMichael Tate
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 77.5
- Targets allowed
- 3
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
78.485/2969
LBElijah Satchell
7 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.5
- Coverage
- 53.3
- Pressures
- 6
- Pass-rush snaps
- 41
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 1
75.4172/1796
Availability reports · 6
- Gus Ritchey · TEout · 2026-10-10
Ritchey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Tyreek Copper · WRout · 2026-10-10
Copper is bothered by a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- Noah Moss · RBQues. · 2026-10-10
Moss is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday, October
- Ian Flynt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Flynt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.
- Vander Ploog · TEQues. · 2026-10-10
Ploog is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.
- Nick Konieczynski · KQues. · 2026-10-10
Konieczynski is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October
Position units
Position-unit comparison
DUKEDuke
NCSUNC State
vs
Offense
90.6
#16 of 138
QB
Quarterback
86.1
#32 of 138
80.8
#32 of 138
RB
Running backs
92.4
#1 of 138
83.0
#3 of 138
WR
Receivers
68.1
#107 of 138
78.3
#29 of 138
TE
Tight ends
90.5
#1 of 138
75.4
#16 of 138
OL
Offensive line
73.9
#21 of 138
Defense
81.7
#9 of 138
DL
Defensive line
71.7
#89 of 138
77.8
#38 of 138
LB
Linebackers
78.8
#30 of 138
69.3
#108 of 138
DB
Secondary
72.7
#61 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Duke
opponent
NC State
Aaway+2.2
UVAVirginia#50-26.0Aaway
Aaway-1.4
WAKEWake Forest#26-24.0Hhome
Hhome+28.0
STANStanford#106+6.2Aaway
Hhome+13.5
UNCNorth Carolina#60+0.3Aaway