AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#39Away
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
27p
#34Home
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
31p
DUKE 38%63% NCSU
Spread
NCSU -4.6
Total
58
Moneyline
DUKE+167NCSU-167
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DUKE advantageevenNCSU advantage →
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
DUKE +26
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33NCSU linebackers #64
DUKE +19
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90
NCSU +37
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · NCSU
CB1 · DUKE
73.0
85.9
DUKE +13
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · DUKE
MLB · NCSU
83.8
70.6
DUKE +13
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · NCSU
MLB · DUKE
72.5
79.0
DUKE +6
when DUKE throws
Javen Nicholas
vs
King Mack
X · DUKE
CB1 · NCSU
51.0
75.8
NCSU +25
over the middle
Jeremiah Hasley
vs
Jackson Vick
TE · DUKE
FS · NCSU
66.8
48.4
DUKE +18
off the edge· hunting Bailey
Rylan Vann
vs
Preston Watson
LT · NCSU
EDGE · DUKE
42.5
68.2
DUKE +26

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287
NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Duke
opponent
NC State
away-0.6
Virginia#49
-26.0away
away-0.6
Wake Forest#46
+6.5home
home+6.2
North Carolina#61
+3.2away
home+16.1
Stanford#96
+13.2away

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNCSU +4.695% interval: -19.3 to 28.580% interval: -12.8 to 21.9-13+22DUKE wins 38%NCSU wins 63%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NCSU 32–25 DUKENCSU 28–49 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 32–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNCSU 35–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 39–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 42–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 46–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 49–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 53–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 56–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 25–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 28–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 32–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 35–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 39–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNCSU 42–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNCSU 46–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNCSU 49–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNCSU 53–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 21–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 25–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 28–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNCSU 32–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNCSU 35–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 39–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 42–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNCSU 46–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 49–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 18–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 21–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 25–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 28–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 32–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesNCSU 35–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 39–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNCSU 42–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 46–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 14–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 18–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 21–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 25–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNCSU 28–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNCSU 32–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 35–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 39–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 42–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 11–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 14–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 18–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 21–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 25–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNCSU 28–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 32–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 35–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 39–4 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 7–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 11–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 14–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 18–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 21–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 25–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 28–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNCSU 32–4 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 35–0 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalDUKE +21DUKE +7NCSU +7NCSU +21NCSU +35margin →