CFB
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All rankings
ACC

Duke

Blue Devils4-15th in ACC
Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham, NC · 40,004
TeamWell-rounded
OffenseBig-play · strong
DefenseDisciplined · solid · stout against the run

The season

Best win
W 31-27 @ #47 Illinois
Wk 2 · Sep 12 · won as a 36% underdog
Worst loss
L 25-28 @ #66 Georgia Tech
Wk 6 · Oct 10 · lost as a 63% favorite

Schedule

model 3/5 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsTulane
    W 17–3
    Win chance 70%Model margin +7.0Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    atIllinois
    W 31–27
    Win chance 36%Model margin -4.8Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsStanford
    W 35–7
    Win chance 88%Model margin +16.0Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    vsWilliam & Mary
    W 62–7
    Win chance >99%Model margin +46.4Game details
  5. Week 6 · Oct 10
    atGeorgia Tech
    L 25–28
    Win chance 63%Model margin +4.6Game details
  6. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsNorth Carolina
    Win chance 84%Model margin +13.5Game details
  7. Week 8 · Oct 23
    atVirginia
    Win chance 56%Model margin +2.2Game details
  8. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsBoston College
    Win chance 93%Model margin +19.5Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atNC State
    Win chance 65%Model margin +5.2Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atMiami
    Win chance 16%Model margin -13.6Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsClemson
    Win chance 72%Model margin +7.8Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atWake Forest
    Win chance 46%Model margin -1.4Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
77
#18 of 138
Defense efficiency
66
#44 of 138
Efficiency
#190.29
EPA / play
#460.01
#280.39
Pass
#600.11
#210.23
Rush
#14-0.12
#6044%
Success
#4337%
Big plays & havoc
#191.34
Explosive
#361.16
#710%
Havoc
#5217%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB16th
RB32nd
WR3rd
TE29th
OL16th
DL9th
LB38th
DB108th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Dan MahanFR
126 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
90.6
18th QB
RB
Nate SheppardSO
644 yds · 6 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.2
37th RB
WR
Paxon KetteringSO
1 rec · 32 yds · 0 TD
90.1
6th WR
WR
Jonah BurtonSR
13 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
81.9
42nd WR
TE
Jeremiah HasleySR
13 rec · 195 yds · 0 TD
78.3
32nd TE
Defense
LB
Elliott SchaperSO
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
84.2
50th LB
LB
Nick Morris Jr.SR
23 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
75.2
177th LB
CB
Kyon LoudSO
10 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
73.6
250th DB
S
Leon Griffin IIIJR
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
71.7
344th DB
CB
Kaleb LanierFR
2 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
67.9
609th DB

Injury report

3 listed
Ques.
Cosme SalasK

Salas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.

70.710-11
Ques.
Lawrence GardnerQB

Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.

—10-11
Ques.
Qeanu JohnsonWR

Johnson is hampered up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.

60.0202510-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsNorth Carolina
    Playoff chance if win
    10.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    2.3%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 23
    atVirginia
    Playoff chance if win
    13.6%
    Playoff chance if loss
    3.5%
  3. Week 9 · Oct 31
    vsBoston College
    Playoff chance if win
    9.9%
    Playoff chance if loss
    1.9%
  4. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atNC State
    Playoff chance if win
    12.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    3.4%
  5. Week 11 · Nov 14
    atMiami
    Playoff chance if win
    24.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    5.4%
  6. Week 12 · Nov 21
    vsClemson
    Playoff chance if win
    11.7%
    Playoff chance if loss
    3.2%
  7. Week 13 · Nov 28
    atWake Forest
    Playoff chance if win
    15.0%
    Playoff chance if loss
    4.1%

Past seasons

Year by year
+7.7 points since 2022
405060708058.4202269.6202364.3202466.22025
2022 58.42023 69.62024 64.32025 66.2

2025

8-5
D-I rank
#48
Rating
66.2
Listed games · 13
WLLWWWLWLLWWW
442 pts scored373 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs ElonW 45–17
  2. W2 vs IllinoisL 19–45
  3. W3 at TulaneL 27–34
  4. W4 vs NC StateW 45–33
  5. W5 at SyracuseW 38–3
  6. W6 at CaliforniaW 45–21
  7. W8 vs Georgia TechL 18–27
  8. W10 at ClemsonW 46–45
  9. W11 at UConnL 34–37
  10. W12 vs VirginiaL 17–34
  11. W13 at North CarolinaW 32–25
  12. W14 vs Wake ForestW 49–32
  13. W15 vs VirginiaW 27–20

2024

9-3
D-I rank
#55
Rating
64.3
Listed games · 12
WWWWWLWLLWWW
322 pts scored266 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs ElonW 26–3
  2. W2 vs NorthwesternW 26–20
  3. W3 vs UConnW 26–21
  4. W4 at Middle TennesseeW 45–17
  5. W5 vs North CarolinaW 21–20
  6. W6 at Georgia TechL 14–24
  7. W8 vs Florida StateW 23–16
  8. W9 vs SMUL 27–28
  9. W10 at MiamiL 31–53
  10. W11 at NC StateW 29–19
  11. W13 vs Virginia TechW 31–28
  12. W14 at Wake ForestW 23–17

2023

7-5
D-I rank
#27
Rating
69.6
Listed games · 12
WWWWLWLLWLLW
333 pts scored237 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs ClemsonW 28–7
  2. W2 vs LafayetteW 42–7
  3. W3 vs NorthwesternW 38–14
  4. W4 at UConnW 41–7
  5. W5 vs Notre DameL 14–21
  6. W7 vs NC StateW 24–3
  7. W8 at Florida StateL 20–38
  8. W9 at LouisvilleL 0–23
  9. W10 vs Wake ForestW 24–21
  10. W11 at North CarolinaL 45–47
  11. W12 at VirginiaL 27–30
  12. W13 vs PittsburghW 30–19

2022

8-4
D-I rank
#77
Rating
58.4
Listed games · 12
WWWLWLLWWWLW
397 pts scored274 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs TempleW 30–0
  2. W2 at NorthwesternW 31–23
  3. W3 vs North Carolina A&TW 49–20
  4. W4 at KansasL 27–35
  5. W5 vs VirginiaW 38–17
  6. W6 at Georgia TechL 20–23
  7. W7 vs North CarolinaL 35–38
  8. W8 at MiamiW 45–21
  9. W10 at Boston CollegeW 38–31
  10. W11 vs Virginia TechW 24–7
  11. W12 at PittsburghL 26–28
  12. W13 vs Wake ForestW 34–31