AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 8:00 PM
#96Away
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
20p
#39Home
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
36p
STAN 14%86% DUKE
Spread
DUKE -16.1
Total
55
Moneyline
STAN+634DUKE-634
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← STAN advantageevenDUKE advantage →
STAN throw
STAN protection #61
DUKE +15
STAN run
even
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
DUKE +15
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33STAN front #97
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
Matt Rose
RB · DUKE
MLB · STAN
83.8
78.1
DUKE +6
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · STAN
MLB · DUKE
64.3
79.0
DUKE +15
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · STAN
CB1 · DUKE
52.4
85.9
DUKE +34
when DUKE throws
Javen Nicholas
vs
Jay Green
X · DUKE
CB1 · STAN
51.0
70.7
STAN +20
off the edge· hunting Mirer
Nathan Mejia
vs
Preston Watson
LT · STAN
EDGE · DUKE
52.8
68.2
DUKE +15
over the middle
Jeremiah Hasley
vs
Scotty Edwards
TE · DUKE
FS · STAN
66.8
49.3
DUKE +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Stanford
opponent
Duke
away-14.2
Wake Forest#46
-0.6away
home-12.8
Georgia Tech#38
-4.2away
home-13.2
NC State#34
-4.6away
home-14.8
Miami#6
-16.4away

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKDUKE +16.195% interval: -7.8 to 4080% interval: -1.2 to 33.5-1+34STAN wins 14%DUKE wins 86%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DUKE 35–21 STANDUKE 32–46 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 35–42 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 39–39 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 42–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDUKE 46–32 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDUKE 49–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 53–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 56–21 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 60–18 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 28–42 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 32–39 STAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 35–35 STAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 39–32 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 42–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDUKE 46–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 49–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 53–18 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 56–14 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 25–39 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 28–35 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 32–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 35–28 STAN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 39–25 STAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDUKE 42–21 STAN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDUKE 46–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 49–14 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDUKE 53–11 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 21–35 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 25–32 STAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDUKE 28–28 STAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDUKE 32–25 STAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 35–21 STAN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDUKE 39–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDUKE 42–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDUKE 46–11 STAN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 49–7 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 18–32 STAN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 21–28 STAN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 25–25 STAN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDUKE 28–21 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDUKE 32–18 STAN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDUKE 35–14 STAN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDUKE 39–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 42–7 STAN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDUKE 46–4 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 14–28 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 18–25 STAN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 21–21 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 25–18 STAN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDUKE 28–14 STAN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 32–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDUKE 35–7 STAN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 39–4 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 42–0 STAN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 11–25 STAN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 14–21 STAN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 18–18 STAN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 21–14 STAN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDUKE 25–11 STAN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 28–7 STAN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDUKE 32–4 STAN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 35–0 STAN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalSTAN +14PKDUKE +14DUKE +28DUKE +42margin →