Passing
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- STAN offense
- #88
- DUKE defense
- #60
EPA comparison
0.14
#88
0.11
#60
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 4:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
STAN 12.7%87.3% DUKE
- Projected margin
- DUKE by 16.0
- Projected total
- 53
- 80% outcome range
- STAN 3 to DUKE 36
- Win probability
- DUKE 87.3%
FinalSTAN 7 · DUKE 35model had +16.0, off by 12.0
Current team profiles
StanfordDukeWhen Stanford has the ball
Rushing
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- STAN offense
- #126
- DUKE defense
- #14
EPA comparison
-0.08
#126
-0.12
#14
Rush EPA
Drive success
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- STAN offense
- #126
- DUKE defense
- #43
Success rates
37%
#126
37%
#43
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#111
0.01
#46
EPA / play
1.20
#91
1.16
#36
Explosiveness
14%
#60
17%
#52
Havoc
When Duke has the ball
Passing
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- STAN defense
- #136
- DUKE offense
- #28
EPA comparison
0.47
#136
0.39
#28
Pass EPA
Rushing
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- STAN defense
- #138
- DUKE offense
- #21
EPA comparison
0.32
#138
0.23
#21
Rush EPA
Drive success
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- STAN defense
- #133
- DUKE offense
- #60
Success rates
50%
#133
44%
#60
Success rate
More metrics
0.37
#138
0.29
#19
EPA / play
1.35
#117
1.34
#19
Explosiveness
11%
#131
10%
#7
Havoc
Current key players
StanfordQBDavis Warren
1207 yds · 5 TD · 1 INT
70.0153/729
WRNico Brown
10 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
79.363/2069
RBTuna Altahir
8 yds · 0 TD · 4.0 YPC
75.3173/1044
LBGabe Kaminski
11 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 75.0
- Coverage
- 70.9
- Pressures
- 9
- Pass-rush snaps
- 61
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 0
73.2253/1796
CBBrandon Nicholson
9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 57.2
- Coverage
- 74.5
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 57
- Passer rating allowed
- 52.4
- Missed tackles
- 2
72.6298/2969
WRCaden High
17 rec · 236 yds · 3 TD
72.3187/2069
Availability reports · 5
- Niki Prongos · OGQues. · 2026-10-11
Prongos is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.
- Aidan Kilstrom · OGQues. · 2026-10-11
Kilstrom is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.
- Carter Shaw · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Shaw is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.
- Daylen Sharper · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Sharper is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.
- London Bironas · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Bironas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.
DukeQBDan Mahan
126 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
90.618/729
WRPaxon Kettering
1 rec · 32 yds · 0 TD
90.16/2069
RBNate Sheppard
644 yds · 6 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.237/1044
LBElliott Schaper
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.8
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.250/1796
WRJonah Burton
13 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
81.942/2069
TEJeremiah Hasley
13 rec · 195 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 67.1
- Run blocking
- 72.0
- Penalties
- 0
78.332/1017
Availability reports · 3
- Cosme Salas · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Salas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Lawrence Gardner · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Qeanu Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Johnson is hampered up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
STANStanford
DUKEDuke
vs
Offense
70.0
#100 of 138
QB
Quarterback
90.6
#16 of 138
73.3
#92 of 138
RB
Running backs
80.8
#32 of 138
72.2
#56 of 138
WR
Receivers
83.0
#3 of 138
57.5
#133 of 138
TE
Tight ends
78.3
#29 of 138
67.0
#79 of 138
OL
Offensive line
75.4
#16 of 138
Defense
65.3
#134 of 138
DL
Defensive line
81.7
#9 of 138
68.4
#119 of 138
LB
Linebackers
77.8
#38 of 138
68.3
#116 of 138
DB
Secondary
69.3
#108 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Stanford
opponent
Duke
Aaway-54.0
WAKEWake Forest#26-1.4Aaway
Hhome-39.0
MIAMiami#4-13.6Aaway
Hhome-6.2
NCSUNC State#63+5.2Aaway
Hhome+7.0
GTGeorgia Tech#66-3.0Aaway