Passing
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #28
- ILL defense
- #126
EPA comparison
0.39
#28
0.37
#126
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
DUKE 38.9%61.1% ILL
- Projected margin
- ILL by 4.8
- Projected total
- 55
- 80% outcome range
- DUKE 14 to ILL 25
- Win probability
- ILL 61.1%
FinalDUKE 31 · ILL 27model had +4.8, off by 8.8
Current team profiles
Duke
IllinoisWhen Duke has the ball
Rushing
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #21
- ILL defense
- #101
EPA comparison
0.23
#21
0.12
#101
Rush EPA
Drive success
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #60
- ILL defense
- #117
Success rates
44%
#60
46%
#117
Success rate
More metrics
0.29
#19
0.25
#130
EPA / play
1.34
#19
1.27
#93
Explosiveness
10%
#7
12%
#125
Havoc
When Illinois has the ball
Passing
ILL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #60
- ILL offense
- #41
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
0.32
#41
Pass EPA
Rushing
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #14
- ILL offense
- #39
EPA comparison
-0.12
#14
0.18
#39
Rush EPA
Drive success
ILL offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #43
- ILL offense
- #15
Success rates
37%
#43
50%
#15
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#46
0.23
#34
EPA / play
1.16
#36
1.25
#60
Explosiveness
17%
#52
11%
#14
Havoc
Current key players
DukeQBDan Mahan
126 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
90.618/729
WRPaxon Kettering
1 rec · 32 yds · 0 TD
90.16/2069
RBNate Sheppard
644 yds · 6 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.237/1044
LBElliott Schaper
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.8
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.250/1796
WRJonah Burton
13 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
81.942/2069
TEJeremiah Hasley
13 rec · 195 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 67.1
- Run blocking
- 72.0
- Penalties
- 0
78.332/1017
Availability reports · 3
- Cosme Salas · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Salas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Lawrence Gardner · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Qeanu Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Johnson is hampered up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
IllinoisQBKatin Houser
1246 yds · 11 TD · 3 INT
90.814/729
WRCollin Dixon
40 rec · 546 yds · 8 TD
87.019/2069
LBCameron Thomas
5 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 74.3
- Coverage
- 84.7
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 18
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 1
80.676/1796
LBWill Holmes
13 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.4
- Coverage
- 60.3
- Pressures
- 16
- Pass-rush snaps
- 92
- Missed tackles
- 1
- Forced fumbles
- 1
79.491/1796
RBJavari Barnett
54 yds · 1 TD · 5.4 YPC
79.393/1044
DBMatthew Bailey
37 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.2
- Coverage
- 79.8
- Targets allowed
- 7
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 38
- Passer rating allowed
- 20.8
- Missed tackles
- 3
78.681/2969
Availability reports · 11
- Tanner Hollinger · TEout · 2026-08-11
Hollinger has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season
- Alex Perry · WRout · 2026-08-13
Perry is batting with a shoulder injury and will undergo surgery, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.
- BJ Thurman · TEout · 2026-08-13
Thurman is laid up with foot surgery, and he is likely to miss the remainder of the season.
- Grant Smith · TEout · 2026-08-23
Smith is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.
- Will Vala III · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Vala III is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will take the field against Ducks on Sunday, October 24t
- Jacob Eberhart · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Eberhart is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will take the field against Ducks on Sunday, October 24t
- Jacob Harvey · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.
- Jayshon Platt · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Platt is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will partake against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.
- John Forster · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Forster is nursing with a knee injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.
- Kenyon Alston · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Alston is managing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.
- Nas Rankin · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Rankin is nursing with a leg injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Ducks on Sunday, October 24th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
DUKEDuke
ILLIllinois
vs
Offense
90.6
#16 of 138
QB
Quarterback
90.8
#14 of 138
80.8
#32 of 138
RB
Running backs
75.4
#70 of 138
83.0
#3 of 138
WR
Receivers
75.8
#31 of 138
78.3
#29 of 138
TE
Tight ends
73.7
#44 of 138
75.4
#16 of 138
OL
Offensive line
69.2
#60 of 138
Defense
81.7
#9 of 138
DL
Defensive line
72.8
#74 of 138
77.8
#38 of 138
LB
Linebackers
76.7
#48 of 138
69.3
#108 of 138
DB
Secondary
73.0
#57 of 138