AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#39Away
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
27p
#35Home
Illinois
0-0 · AVR 60.4
32p
DUKE 38%62% ILL
Spread
ILL -4.8
Total
59
Moneyline
DUKE+166ILL-166
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DUKE advantageevenILL advantage →
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
DUKE +18
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33
DUKE +9
ILL throw
ILL +39
ILL run
ILL +22

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ILL throws
Collin Dixon
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · ILL
CB1 · DUKE
68.9
85.9
DUKE +17
when ILL runs
Ca'Lil Valentine
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · ILL
MLB · DUKE
68.9
79.0
DUKE +10
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
James Kreutz
RB · DUKE
MLB · ILL
83.8
63.3
DUKE +21
off the edge· hunting Houser
TJ McMillen
vs
Preston Watson
LT · ILL
EDGE · DUKE
61.6
68.2
DUKE +7
off the edge· hunting Eget
Matt Craycraft
vs
Isaiah Thomison
LT · DUKE
EDGE · ILL
44.1
78.8
ILL +35
over the middle
Kaden Feagin
vs
Evan Smith
TE · ILL
FS · DUKE
72.7
42.0
ILL +31

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287
Illinois
TEKaden Feagin
72.77/287
QBKatin Houser
71.038/308
RBCa'Lil Valentine
68.960/514
WRCollin Dixon
68.960/777
WRHudson Clement
66.773/777
LBJames Kreutz
63.3236/878

also out — T. Hollinger (TE), A. Perry (WR), B. Thurman (TE), G. Smith (TE), D. Brown (LB), J. Platt (WR)

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKILL +4.895% interval: -19.1 to 28.780% interval: -12.6 to 22.2-13+22DUKE wins 38%ILL wins 62%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ILL 32–25 DUKEILL 28–49 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 32–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 35–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 39–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesILL 42–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 46–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesILL 49–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 53–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 56–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 25–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 28–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesILL 32–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesILL 35–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesILL 39–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesILL 42–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 46–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 49–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesILL 53–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 21–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 25–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesILL 28–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 32–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesILL 35–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesILL 39–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesILL 42–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 46–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 49–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 18–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 21–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesILL 25–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesILL 28–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesILL 32–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesILL 35–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesILL 39–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesILL 42–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesILL 46–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 14–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 18–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesILL 21–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesILL 25–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesILL 28–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesILL 32–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 35–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesILL 39–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 42–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 11–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesILL 14–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 18–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesILL 21–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesILL 25–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesILL 28–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesILL 32–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesILL 35–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesILL 39–4 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesILL 7–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesILL 11–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesILL 14–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesILL 18–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesILL 21–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesILL 25–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesILL 28–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesILL 32–4 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesILL 35–0 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalDUKE +21DUKE +7ILL +7ILL +21ILL +35margin →