CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 AM ET
#121Away
Boston College
2-3 · AVR 50.1
17p
#34Home
Duke
4-1 · AVR 66.8
38p
Forecast win probability
BC 10.3%89.7% DUKE
Projected margin
DUKE by 19.5
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
DUKE 1 to DUKE 38
Win probability
DUKE 89.7%

Current team profiles

Boston College
Duke

When Boston College has the ball

Passing

DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#114
DUKE defense
#60
EPA comparison
0.07
#114
0.11
#60
Pass EPA

Rushing

DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#100
DUKE defense
#14
EPA comparison
0.03
#100
-0.12
#14
Rush EPA

Drive success

DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#114
DUKE defense
#43
Success rates
39%
#114
37%
#43
Success rate
More metrics
0.00
#122
0.01
#46
EPA / play
1.25
#57
1.16
#36
Explosiveness
20%
#133
17%
#52
Havoc

When Duke has the ball

Passing

DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#69
DUKE offense
#28
EPA comparison
0.14
#69
0.39
#28
Pass EPA

Rushing

DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#52
DUKE offense
#21
EPA comparison
0.01
#52
0.23
#21
Rush EPA

Drive success

BC defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#52
DUKE offense
#60
Success rates
39%
#52
44%
#60
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#49
0.29
#19
EPA / play
1.26
#88
1.34
#19
Explosiveness
18%
#31
10%
#7
Havoc

Current key players

Boston College
QBMason McKenzie
967 yds · 5 TD · 5 INT
67.1194/729
RBMekhi Dodd
32 yds · 0 TD · 16.0 YPC
78.0109/1044
LBAnthony Palano
43 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.1
Coverage
72.3
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
29
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
73.8228/1796
WRLandon Wright
5 rec · 91 yds · 0 TD
72.7175/2069
DBMarcelous Townsend
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
66.0
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
70.9390/2969
DBCameron Martinez
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.4
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
70.6405/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Bo MacCormack III · RBout · 2026-09-19

    MacCormack III is dealing with an shoulder injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Brady Clough · TEout · 2026-10-02

    Clough has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against SMU on Saturday.

  • Reed Swanson · WRprobable · 2026-09-24

    Swanson is managing with a Undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against the Virginia Tech on Saturday.

Duke
QBDan Mahan
126 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
90.618/729
WRPaxon Kettering
1 rec · 32 yds · 0 TD
90.16/2069
RBNate Sheppard
644 yds · 6 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.237/1044
LBElliott Schaper
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
87.8
Coverage
71.2
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.250/1796
WRJonah Burton
13 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
81.942/2069
TEJeremiah Hasley
13 rec · 195 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.1
Run blocking
72.0
Penalties
0
78.332/1017
Availability reports · 3
  • Cosme Salas · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Salas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Lawrence Gardner · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Qeanu Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Johnson is hampered up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BC
DUKE
vs
Offense
67.1
#114 of 138
QB
90.6
#16 of 138
69.8
#120 of 138
RB
80.8
#32 of 138
69.2
#90 of 138
WR
83.0
#3 of 138
52.0
#137 of 138
TE
78.3
#29 of 138
59.6
#133 of 138
OL
75.4
#16 of 138
Defense
69.0
#116 of 138
DL
81.7
#9 of 138
67.1
#125 of 138
LB
77.8
#38 of 138
70.1
#96 of 138
DB
69.3
#108 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Boston College
opponent
Duke
A-30.4
MIA#4
-13.6A
A-9.6
GT#66
-3.0A