AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#79Away
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
24p
#39Home
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
35p
BC 25%75% DUKE
Spread
DUKE -10.3
Total
59
Moneyline
BC+300DUKE-300
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BC advantageevenDUKE advantage →
BC throw
BC +15
BC run
BC +18
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
DUKE +18
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · DUKE
MLB · BC
83.8
75.5
DUKE +8
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · BC
MLB · DUKE
79.5
79.0
dead even
when BC throws
Dawson Pough
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · BC
CB1 · DUKE
55.9
85.9
DUKE +30
off the edge· pass rush vs protection
Reggie Jackson
vs
Preston Watson
LT · BC
EDGE · DUKE
62.7
68.2
DUKE +5
when DUKE throws
Javen Nicholas
vs
Kameron Howard
X · DUKE
CB1 · BC
51.0
75.7
BC +25
off the edge· hunting Eget
Matt Craycraft
vs
Josiah Griffin
LT · DUKE
EDGE · BC
44.1
75.6
BC +31

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878
Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Boston College
opponent
Duke
away-24.2
Miami#6
-16.4away
away-11.9
Georgia Tech#38
-4.2away

Projected margin

80% between -7 and 28
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKDUKE +10.395% interval: -13.6 to 34.280% interval: -7.1 to 27.7-7+28BC wins 25%DUKE wins 75%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DUKE 32–25 BCDUKE 28–49 BC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesDUKE 32–46 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 35–42 BC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 39–39 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDUKE 42–35 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDUKE 46–32 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDUKE 49–28 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDUKE 53–25 BC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 56–21 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 25–46 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 28–42 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 32–39 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 35–35 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDUKE 39–32 BC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDUKE 42–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDUKE 46–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 49–21 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDUKE 53–18 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 21–42 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 25–39 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 28–35 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 32–32 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 35–28 BC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDUKE 39–25 BC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDUKE 42–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 46–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 49–14 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 18–39 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 21–35 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 25–32 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 28–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 32–25 BC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDUKE 35–21 BC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDUKE 39–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 42–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 46–11 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 14–35 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 18–32 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 21–28 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 25–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDUKE 28–21 BC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDUKE 32–18 BC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDUKE 35–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDUKE 39–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 42–7 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 11–32 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 14–28 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 18–25 BC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDUKE 21–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 25–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDUKE 28–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDUKE 32–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 35–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 39–4 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 7–28 BC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesDUKE 11–25 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 14–21 BC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDUKE 18–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 21–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDUKE 25–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDUKE 28–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 32–4 BC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 35–0 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalBC +21BC +7DUKE +7DUKE +21DUKE +35margin →