AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#39Away
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
20p
#6Home
Miami
0-0 · AVR 77.0
36p
DUKE 13%87% MIA
Spread
MIA -16.4
Total
56
Moneyline
DUKE+685MIA-685
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DUKE advantageevenMIA advantage →
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
MIA +40
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33
MIA +41
MIA throw
MIA +59
MIA run
MIA +48

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MIA throws
Cooper Barkate
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · MIA
CB1 · DUKE
87.0
85.9
dead even
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
Kamal Bonner
RB · DUKE
MLB · MIA
83.8
82.9
dead even
when MIA runs
Mark Fletcher Jr.
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · MIA
MLB · DUKE
84.5
79.0
MIA +6
off the edge· hunting Mensah
Samson Okunlola
vs
Preston Watson
LT · MIA
EDGE · DUKE
87.5
68.2
MIA +19
over the middle
Jeremiah Hasley
vs
Zechariah Poyser
TE · DUKE
FS · MIA
66.8
77.9
MIA +11
off the edge· hunting Eget
Matt Craycraft
vs
Damon Wilson II
LT · DUKE
EDGE · MIA
44.1
93.8
MIA +50

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287
Miami
WRCooper Barkate
87.06/777
DBXavier Lucas
85.442/1427
RBMark Fletcher Jr.
84.59/514
QBDarian Mensah
84.311/308
DBBryce Fitzgerald
83.561/1427
LBKamal Bonner
82.935/878

also out — Hayden Lowe, Luka Gilbert, Jontavius Wyman

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Duke
opponent
Miami
away-0.6
Wake Forest#46
+13.3away
home+10.3
Boston College#79
+24.2home
home-4.0
Clemson#27
+4.9away
home+6.2
North Carolina#61
+15.1away
home+16.1
Stanford#96
+14.8away

Projected margin

80% between -1 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMIA +16.495% interval: -7.5 to 40.380% interval: -1 to 33.8-1+34DUKE wins 13%MIA wins 87%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MIA 35–21 DUKEMIA 32–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesMIA 35–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 39–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIA 42–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 46–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 49–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 53–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 56–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMIA 60–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMIA 28–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 32–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 35–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIA 39–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIA 42–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 46–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 49–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMIA 53–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIA 56–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 25–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 28–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIA 32–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 35–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 39–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 42–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIA 46–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIA 49–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 53–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 21–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 25–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIA 28–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 32–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIA 35–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMIA 39–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 42–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesMIA 46–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIA 49–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 18–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMIA 21–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMIA 25–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMIA 28–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMIA 32–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesMIA 35–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMIA 39–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMIA 42–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesMIA 46–4 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMIA 14–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 18–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMIA 21–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMIA 25–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMIA 28–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMIA 32–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMIA 35–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 39–4 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMIA 42–0 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 11–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMIA 14–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMIA 18–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMIA 21–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMIA 25–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMIA 28–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMIA 32–4 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMIA 35–0 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalDUKE +14PKMIA +14MIA +28MIA +42margin →