Passing
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #28
- MIA defense
- #30
EPA comparison
0.39
#28
0.02
#30
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
DUKE 19.2%80.8% MIA
- Projected margin
- MIA by 13.6
- Projected total
- 56
- 80% outcome range
- DUKE 5 to MIA 32
- Win probability
- MIA 80.8%
Current team profiles
Duke
MiamiWhen Duke has the ball
Rushing
MIA defense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #21
- MIA defense
- #10
EPA comparison
0.23
#21
-0.15
#10
Rush EPA
Drive success
MIA defense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #60
- MIA defense
- #16
Success rates
44%
#60
34%
#16
Success rate
More metrics
0.29
#19
-0.06
#19
EPA / play
1.34
#19
1.19
#53
Explosiveness
10%
#7
16%
#70
Havoc
When Miami has the ball
Passing
MIA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #60
- MIA offense
- #1
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
0.74
#1
Pass EPA
Rushing
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #14
- MIA offense
- #51
EPA comparison
-0.12
#14
0.15
#51
Rush EPA
Drive success
MIA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #43
- MIA offense
- #1
Success rates
37%
#43
56%
#1
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#46
0.42
#1
EPA / play
1.16
#36
1.26
#55
Explosiveness
17%
#52
8%
#3
Havoc
Current key players
DukeQBDan Mahan
126 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
90.618/729
WRPaxon Kettering
1 rec · 32 yds · 0 TD
90.16/2069
RBNate Sheppard
644 yds · 6 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.237/1044
LBElliott Schaper
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.8
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.250/1796
WRJonah Burton
13 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
81.942/2069
TEJeremiah Hasley
13 rec · 195 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 67.1
- Run blocking
- 72.0
- Penalties
- 0
78.332/1017
Availability reports · 3
- Cosme Salas · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Salas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Lawrence Gardner · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Qeanu Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Johnson is hampered up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
MiamiQBDarian Mensah
1438 yds · 15 TD · 0 INT
92.82/729
WRMalachi Toney
39 rec · 604 yds · 6 TD
93.03/2069
RBCharMar Brown
97 yds · 1 TD · 7.5 YPC
84.840/1044
TEJack Nickel
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Run blocking
- 80.9
- Penalties
- 0
84.014/1017
DBEthan O'Connor
16 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 59.2
- Coverage
- 86.8
- Targets allowed
- 18
- Rec allowed
- 10
- Yards allowed
- 65
- Passer rating allowed
- 40.3
- Missed tackles
- 4
83.930/2969
DBBryce Fitzgerald
13 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.5
- Coverage
- 80.3
- Targets allowed
- 16
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 75
- Passer rating allowed
- 68.5
- Missed tackles
- 2
79.372/2969
Availability reports · 5
- CharMar Brown · RBout · 2026-09-21
Brown is dealing with a lower body injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.
- Joshua Moore · WRout · 2026-09-21
Moore is battling with an upper body injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season.
- Owen Ruskavich · TEout · 2026-10-01
Ruskavich is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he is not expected to face against Clemson on Saturday.
- Luka Gilbert · TEout · 2026-08-11
Gilbert has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be idle for the remainder of the season
- Mark Fletcher Jr. · RBQues. · 2026-09-27
Fletcher Jr is hampered by upper body injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be active against Clemson on Saturday, October 3th
Position units
Position-unit comparison
DUKEDuke
MIAMiami
vs
Offense
90.6
#16 of 138
QB
Quarterback
92.8
#2 of 138
80.8
#32 of 138
RB
Running backs
83.8
#16 of 138
83.0
#3 of 138
WR
Receivers
80.8
#8 of 138
78.3
#29 of 138
TE
Tight ends
84.0
#14 of 138
75.4
#16 of 138
OL
Offensive line
77.6
#7 of 138
Defense
81.7
#9 of 138
DL
Defensive line
72.6
#76 of 138
77.8
#38 of 138
LB
Linebackers
71.0
#97 of 138
69.3
#108 of 138
DB
Secondary
77.2
#14 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Duke
opponent
Miami
Hhome+7.8
CLEMClemson#57+28.0Aaway
Aaway-1.4
WAKEWake Forest#26+13.0Aaway
Hhome+28.0
STANStanford#106+39.0Aaway
Hhome+19.5
BCBoston College#121+30.4Hhome
Hhome+13.5
UNCNorth Carolina#60+19.1Aaway