AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM
#88Away
Tulane
0-0 · AVR 44.4
16p
#39Home
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
37p
TULN 9%91% DUKE
Spread
DUKE -21.0
Total
53
Moneyline
TULN+1049DUKE-1049
Against the market
DUKE +12.5line DUKE -8.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TULN advantageevenDUKE advantage →
TULN throw
TULN QB #139TULN WR #63
TULN +4
TULN run
TULN backs #82
TULN +19
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
DUKE +11
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33
DUKE +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
Chris Rodgers
RB · DUKE
MLB · TULN
83.8
68.3
DUKE +16
when TULN throws
Anthony Brown-Stephens
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · TULN
CB1 · DUKE
59.8
85.9
DUKE +26
off the edge· hunting Chriss-Gremillion
John Bock II
vs
Preston Watson
LT · TULN
EDGE · DUKE
70.5
68.2
dead even
when TULN runs
Jamauri McClure
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · TULN
MLB · DUKE
55.6
79.0
DUKE +23
when DUKE throws
Javen Nicholas
vs
Macho Stevenson
X · DUKE
CB1 · TULN
51.0
81.9
TULN +31
over the middle
Jeremiah Hasley
vs
E'zaiah Shine
TE · DUKE
FS · TULN
66.8
58.9
DUKE +8

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tulane
CBMacho Stevenson
81.971/1427
LBChris Rodgers
68.3172/878
SDorion Jackson
66.4324/1427
TEDawson Johnson
61.242/287
WRAnthony Brown-Stephens
59.8117/777
DBKajuan Banks
59.7492/1427
Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 40
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKDUKE +21.0MKT95% interval: -7 to 4980% interval: 2 to 40+2+40TULN wins 9%DUKE wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DUKE 39–18 TULNDUKE 35–42 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 39–39 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 42–35 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 46–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 49–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDUKE 53–25 TULN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 56–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 60–18 TULN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 63–14 TULN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 32–39 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 35–35 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 39–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 42–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 46–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 49–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 53–18 TULN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 56–14 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 60–11 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 28–35 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 32–32 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDUKE 35–28 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 39–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 42–21 TULN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDUKE 46–18 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 49–14 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 53–11 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDUKE 56–7 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 25–32 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 28–28 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 32–25 TULN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDUKE 35–21 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDUKE 39–18 TULN neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesDUKE 42–14 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDUKE 46–11 TULN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDUKE 49–7 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 53–4 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 21–28 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 25–25 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 28–21 TULN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDUKE 32–18 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDUKE 35–14 TULN neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesDUKE 39–11 TULN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDUKE 42–7 TULN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDUKE 46–4 TULN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 49–0 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 18–25 TULN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 21–21 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDUKE 25–18 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 28–14 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 32–11 TULN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDUKE 35–7 TULN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 39–4 TULN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 42–0 TULN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)DUKE 14–21 TULN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 18–18 TULN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 21–14 TULN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 25–11 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 28–7 TULN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 32–4 TULN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 35–0 TULN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalTULN +7DUKE +7DUKE +21DUKE +35DUKE +49margin →