AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#39Away
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
27p
#38Home
Georgia Tech
0-0 · AVR 59.1
31p
DUKE 39%61% GT
Spread
GT -4.2
Total
58
Moneyline
DUKE+158GT-158
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DUKE advantageevenGT advantage →
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
DUKE +10
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33
DUKE +15
GT throw
GT protection #23
GT +26
GT run
GT +40

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when GT runs
Justice Haynes
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · GT
MLB · DUKE
77.3
79.0
dead even
off the edge· hunting Mendoza
Will Reed
vs
Preston Watson
LT · GT
EDGE · DUKE
84.8
68.2
GT +17
when GT throws
Jordan Allen
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · GT
CB1 · DUKE
64.6
85.9
DUKE +21
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
Kyle Efford
RB · DUKE
MLB · GT
83.8
60.9
DUKE +23
when DUKE throws
Javen Nicholas
vs
Jonas Duclona
X · DUKE
CB1 · GT
51.0
85.0
GT +34
over the middle
Jeremiah Hasley
vs
Tae Harris
TE · DUKE
FS · GT
66.8
49.2
DUKE +18

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287
Georgia Tech
CBJonas Duclona
85.044/1427
CBJaylen Mbakwe
81.281/1427
RBJustice Haynes
77.331/514
WRJordan Allen
64.686/777
LBKyle Efford
60.9268/878
LBCayman Spaulding
60.1284/878

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Duke
opponent
Georgia Tech
away-0.6
Wake Forest#46
+6.1home
home-4.0
Clemson#27
-7.4away
home+16.1
Stanford#96
+12.8away
home+10.3
Boston College#79
+11.9home

Projected margin

80% between -13 and 22
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKGT +4.295% interval: -19.8 to 28.180% interval: -13.2 to 21.5-13+22DUKE wins 39%GT wins 61%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ GT 32–25 DUKEGT 28–49 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 32–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 35–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGT 39–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGT 42–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGT 46–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 49–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGT 53–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 56–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGT 25–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 28–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGT 32–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGT 35–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGT 39–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGT 42–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGT 46–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGT 49–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 53–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGT 21–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 25–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGT 28–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 32–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGT 35–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGT 39–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGT 42–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGT 46–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 49–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 18–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 21–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGT 25–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 28–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGT 32–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGT 35–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGT 39–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGT 42–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 46–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 14–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 18–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 21–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGT 25–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGT 28–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGT 32–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 35–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGT 39–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 42–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGT 11–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 14–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGT 18–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 21–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 25–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGT 28–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 32–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 35–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 39–4 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGT 7–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 11–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 14–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGT 18–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 21–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 25–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGT 28–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 32–4 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 35–0 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalDUKE +21DUKE +7GT +7GT +21GT +35margin →