Passing
UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #28
- UVA defense
- #20
EPA comparison
0.39
#28
0.00
#20
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 8 · Fri Oct 23 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
DUKE 55.1%44.9% UVA
- Projected margin
- DUKE by 2.2
- Projected total
- 56
- 80% outcome range
- DUKE 21 to UVA 16
- Win probability
- DUKE 55.1%
Current team profiles
DukeVirginiaWhen Duke has the ball
Rushing
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #21
- UVA defense
- #84
EPA comparison
0.23
#21
0.07
#84
Rush EPA
Drive success
UVA defense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE offense
- #60
- UVA defense
- #41
Success rates
44%
#60
37%
#41
Success rate
More metrics
0.29
#19
-0.01
#38
EPA / play
1.34
#19
1.11
#25
Explosiveness
10%
#7
17%
#42
Havoc
When Virginia has the ball
Passing
UVA offense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #60
- UVA offense
- #45
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
0.29
#45
Pass EPA
Rushing
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #14
- UVA offense
- #63
EPA comparison
-0.12
#14
0.12
#63
Rush EPA
Drive success
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- DUKE defense
- #43
- UVA offense
- #62
Success rates
37%
#43
44%
#62
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#46
0.18
#55
EPA / play
1.16
#36
1.17
#98
Explosiveness
17%
#52
13%
#42
Havoc
Current key players
DukeQBDan Mahan
126 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
90.618/729
WRPaxon Kettering
1 rec · 32 yds · 0 TD
90.16/2069
RBNate Sheppard
644 yds · 6 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.237/1044
LBElliott Schaper
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.8
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.250/1796
WRJonah Burton
13 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
81.942/2069
TEJeremiah Hasley
13 rec · 195 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 67.1
- Run blocking
- 72.0
- Penalties
- 0
78.332/1017
Availability reports · 3
- Cosme Salas · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Salas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Lawrence Gardner · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Qeanu Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Johnson is hampered up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
VirginiaQBEli Holstein
180 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
85.440/729
LBJustin Rowe
6 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.8
- Coverage
- 94.4
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 1
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
94.13/1796
SKeke Adams
6 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 63.5
- Coverage
- 91.7
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.0
- Missed tackles
- 1
91.16/2969
TELukas Ungar
2 rec · 15 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 64.0
- Run blocking
- 58.8
- Penalties
- 0
86.010/1017
CBOmillio Agard
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 61.3
- Coverage
- 79.2
- Targets allowed
- 10
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 19
- Passer rating allowed
- 39.6
- Missed tackles
- 2
77.4111/2969
DBPatrick Campbell
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 67.0
- Coverage
- 73.4
- Targets allowed
- 0
- Rec allowed
- 0
- Yards allowed
- 0
- Missed tackles
- 0
73.8241/2969
Availability reports · 7
- Jason Hammond · DLout · 2026-09-15
Jason is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an extended period.
- Rico Flores Jr. · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Flores left previous game due to a undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Peyton Lewis · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Lewis is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Triston Ward · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Ward is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Dillon Newton-Short · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Newton-Short is managing a hamstring injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jack Stevens · RBQues. · 2026-10-11
Stevens is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.
- Tim Hamann · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Hamann is sidelined by a undisclosed injury, and it is up in the air if he will face against Mustangs on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
DUKEDuke
UVAVirginia
vs
Offense
90.6
#16 of 138
QB
Quarterback
85.4
#37 of 138
80.8
#32 of 138
RB
Running backs
69.8
#122 of 138
83.0
#3 of 138
WR
Receivers
69.4
#89 of 138
78.3
#29 of 138
TE
Tight ends
86.0
#10 of 138
75.4
#16 of 138
OL
Offensive line
81.1
#2 of 138
Defense
81.7
#9 of 138
DL
Defensive line
77.6
#29 of 138
77.8
#38 of 138
LB
Linebackers
78.8
#31 of 138
69.3
#108 of 138
DB
Secondary
76.8
#17 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
Duke
opponent
Virginia
Aaway+5.2
NCSUNC State#63+26.0Hhome
Hhome+13.5
UNCNorth Carolina#60+8.6Hhome
Aaway-1.4
WAKEWake Forest#26-6.2Aaway