AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Fri Oct 23 · 11:00 PM
#39Away
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
30p
#49Home
Virginia
1-0 · AVR 55.7
30p
DUKE 47%53% UVA
Spread
UVA -0.6
Total
60
Moneyline
DUKE+111UVA-111
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DUKE advantageevenUVA advantage →
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
UVA +32
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33
UVA +27
UVA throw
UVA WR #93
UVA +29
UVA run
UVA +29

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
Kam Robinson
RB · DUKE
MLB · UVA
83.8
83.5
dead even
when UVA runs
Jekail Middlebrook
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · UVA
MLB · DUKE
70.6
79.0
DUKE +8
off the edge· hunting Pribula
Noah Josey
vs
Preston Watson
LT · UVA
EDGE · DUKE
77.5
68.2
UVA +9
when UVA throws
Tyson Davis
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · UVA
CB1 · DUKE
53.4
85.9
DUKE +33
over the middle
Jeremiah Hasley
vs
Kevon Gray
TE · DUKE
FS · UVA
66.8
70.7
UVA +4
when DUKE throws
Javen Nicholas
vs
Jam Jackson
X · DUKE
CB1 · UVA
51.0
86.4
UVA +35

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287
Virginia
CBJam Jackson
86.433/1427
LBKam Robinsonquestionable
83.530/878
SEthan Minter
79.199/1427
DBDonavon Platt
77.8118/1427
QBBeau Pribula
72.532/308
RBJekail Middlebrook
70.650/514

also out — Alex Dunn, Bull Richardson (DL), Chase Morrison (DL), Dillon Newton-Short (WR), Ezekiel Larry (DL), Grant Ellinger (OL), Isaiah Reese (LB), Isaiah Robinson (WR) +8 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Duke
opponent
Virginia
away-4.6
NC State#34
+26.0home
home+6.2
North Carolina#61
+4.3home
away-0.6
Wake Forest#46
-2.4away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUVA +0.695% interval: -23.3 to 24.580% interval: -16.7 to 18-17+18DUKE wins 47%UVA wins 53%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UVA 32–32 DUKEUVA 28–56 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 32–53 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 35–49 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUVA 39–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 42–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 46–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 49–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUVA 53–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUVA 56–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUVA 25–53 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 28–49 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 32–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 35–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 39–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 42–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 46–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUVA 49–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 53–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 21–49 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 25–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 28–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUVA 32–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUVA 35–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUVA 39–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 42–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 46–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUVA 49–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 18–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 21–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 25–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 28–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUVA 32–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUVA 35–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUVA 39–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 42–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 46–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 14–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 18–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 21–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 25–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUVA 28–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUVA 32–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUVA 35–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 39–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUVA 42–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUVA 11–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 14–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUVA 18–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUVA 21–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUVA 25–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUVA 28–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUVA 32–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUVA 35–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUVA 39–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUVA 7–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUVA 11–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUVA 14–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUVA 18–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUVA 21–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUVA 25–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUVA 28–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUVA 32–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUVA 35–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalDUKE +28DUKE +14PKUVA +14UVA +28margin →