AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 12:30 AM
#27Away
Clemson
0-0 · AVR 65.6
30p
#39Home
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
26p
CLEM 61%39% DUKE
Spread
CLEM -4.0
Total
55
Moneyline
CLEM-157DUKE+157
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CLEM advantageevenDUKE advantage →
CLEM throw
CLEM QB #108CLEM WR #31
CLEM +18
CLEM run
CLEM +19
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
CLEM +40
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33
CLEM +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
Sammy Brown
RB · DUKE
MLB · CLEM
83.8
80.8
DUKE +3
when CLEM throws
T.J. Moore
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · CLEM
CB1 · DUKE
71.6
85.9
DUKE +14
when CLEM runs
Chris Johnson Jr.
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · CLEM
MLB · DUKE
68.0
79.0
DUKE +11
off the edge· hunting Eget
Matt Craycraft
vs
Will Heldt
LT · DUKE
EDGE · CLEM
44.1
102.2
CLEM +58
over the middle
Jeremiah Hasley
vs
Branden Strozier
TE · DUKE
FS · CLEM
66.8
76.1
CLEM +9
off the edge· hunting Denson
Dietrick Pennington
vs
Preston Watson
LT · CLEM
EDGE · DUKE
70.7
68.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Clemson
CBAshton Hampton
87.127/1427
SCorey Myrick
84.747/1427
SJerome Carter III
81.873/1427
LBSammy Brown
80.848/878
WRT.J. Moore
71.643/777
RBChris Johnson Jr.
68.068/514

also out — Clemson defensive tackle (DL), Former Clemson corner (CB), P. Streko (RB), Clemson, Clemson defensive back (DB), Clemson freshman standout, Clemson player, Clemson safety (S) +10 more

Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Clemson
opponent
Duke
home+7.4
Georgia Tech#38
-4.2away
home-4.9
Miami#6
-16.4away
home+12.7
North Carolina#61
+6.2home

Projected margin

80% between -21 and 13
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCLEM +4.095% interval: -27.9 to 19.980% interval: -21.4 to 13.4-21+13CLEM wins 61%DUKE wins 39%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CLEM 32–25 DUKEDUKE 21–56 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesDUKE 25–53 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 28–49 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDUKE 32–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 35–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDUKE 39–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 42–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 46–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDUKE 49–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 18–53 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 21–49 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 25–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDUKE 28–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDUKE 32–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDUKE 35–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 39–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDUKE 42–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDUKE 46–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 14–49 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 18–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 21–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 25–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDUKE 28–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDUKE 32–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDUKE 35–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDUKE 39–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 42–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 11–46 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 14–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 18–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 21–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDUKE 25–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDUKE 28–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDUKE 32–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDUKE 35–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 39–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 7–42 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 11–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 14–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 18–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 21–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDUKE 25–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDUKE 28–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDUKE 32–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 35–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 4–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 7–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 11–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDUKE 14–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 18–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 21–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDUKE 25–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDUKE 28–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDUKE 32–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 0–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesDUKE 4–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 7–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 11–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDUKE 14–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDUKE 18–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDUKE 21–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 25–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDUKE 28–7 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalCLEM +35CLEM +21CLEM +7DUKE +7DUKE +21margin →