AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 13 · Sat Nov 28 · 5:00 AM
#39Away
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
28p
#46Home
Wake Forest
0-0 · AVR 56.4
28p
DUKE 48%52% WAKE
Spread
WAKE -0.6
Total
56
Moneyline
DUKE+108WAKE-108
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DUKE advantageevenWAKE advantage →
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
WAKE +29
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33
WAKE +33
WAKE throw
WAKE +14
WAKE run
DUKE +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
Aiden Hall
RB · DUKE
MLB · WAKE
83.8
84.0
dead even
when WAKE throws
Carlos Hernandez
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · WAKE
CB1 · DUKE
56.6
85.9
DUKE +29
off the edge· hunting Eget
Matt Craycraft
vs
Langston Hardy
LT · DUKE
EDGE · WAKE
44.1
96.3
WAKE +52
when WAKE runs
Ty Clark III
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · WAKE
MLB · DUKE
59.7
79.0
DUKE +19
when DUKE throws
Javen Nicholas
vs
Davaughn Patterson
X · DUKE
CB1 · WAKE
51.0
84.7
WAKE +34
over the middle
Jeremiah Hasley
vs
Freddie Gillens
TE · DUKE
FS · WAKE
66.8
66.4
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287
Wake Forest
DBDavaughn Patterson
84.746/1427
LBAiden Hall
84.028/878
DBDeuce Blades II
73.7167/1427
DBKoredell Bartley
69.7245/1427
LBFrank Cusano
69.3157/878
RBTy Clark III
59.7116/514

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Duke
opponent
Wake Forest
away-16.4
Miami#6
-13.3home
away-0.6
Virginia#49
+2.4home
home+16.1
Stanford#96
+14.2home
away-4.6
NC State#34
-6.5away
away-4.2
Georgia Tech#38
-6.1away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKWAKE +0.695% interval: -24 to 25.280% interval: -17.3 to 18.5-17+19DUKE wins 48%WAKE wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ WAKE 28–28 DUKEWAKE 25–53 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWAKE 28–49 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWAKE 32–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWAKE 35–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWAKE 39–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 42–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 46–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWAKE 49–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWAKE 53–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 21–49 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 25–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWAKE 28–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWAKE 32–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWAKE 35–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWAKE 39–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWAKE 42–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWAKE 46–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWAKE 49–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 18–46 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 21–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 25–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWAKE 28–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWAKE 32–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWAKE 35–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWAKE 39–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWAKE 42–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 46–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWAKE 14–42 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 18–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 21–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 25–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWAKE 28–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWAKE 32–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWAKE 35–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 39–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWAKE 42–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWAKE 11–39 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 14–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWAKE 18–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWAKE 21–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWAKE 25–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesWAKE 28–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWAKE 32–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWAKE 35–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWAKE 39–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWAKE 7–35 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWAKE 11–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWAKE 14–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWAKE 18–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWAKE 21–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWAKE 25–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesWAKE 28–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWAKE 32–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWAKE 35–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWAKE 4–32 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWAKE 7–28 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesWAKE 11–25 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWAKE 14–21 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesWAKE 18–18 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWAKE 21–14 DUKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWAKE 25–11 DUKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWAKE 28–7 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWAKE 32–4 DUKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalDUKE +28DUKE +14PKWAKE +14WAKE +28margin →