Passing
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC offense
- #78
- DUKE defense
- #60
EPA comparison
0.19
#78
0.11
#60
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 3:30 PM ET
Victory Bell (Duke-UNC)
Forecast win probability
UNC 20.0%80.0% DUKE
- Projected margin
- DUKE by 13.5
- Projected total
- 52
- 80% outcome range
- UNC 5 to DUKE 32
- Win probability
- DUKE 80.0%
Current team profiles
North CarolinaDukeWhen North Carolina has the ball
Rushing
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC offense
- #93
- DUKE defense
- #14
EPA comparison
0.04
#93
-0.12
#14
Rush EPA
Drive success
DUKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC offense
- #64
- DUKE defense
- #43
Success rates
44%
#64
37%
#43
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#91
0.01
#46
EPA / play
1.13
#117
1.16
#36
Explosiveness
16%
#104
17%
#52
Havoc
When Duke has the ball
Passing
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC defense
- #32
- DUKE offense
- #28
EPA comparison
0.03
#32
0.39
#28
Pass EPA
Rushing
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC defense
- #88
- DUKE offense
- #21
EPA comparison
0.08
#88
0.23
#21
Rush EPA
Drive success
DUKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
- UNC defense
- #100
- DUKE offense
- #60
Success rates
43%
#100
44%
#60
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#47
0.29
#19
EPA / play
0.99
#4
1.34
#19
Explosiveness
13%
#119
10%
#7
Havoc
Current key players
North CarolinaQBMiles O'Neill
22 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
71.8141/729
DBGreg Smith
21 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 68.1
- Coverage
- 89.6
- Targets allowed
- 5
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 9
- Passer rating allowed
- 0.0
- Missed tackles
- 3
86.619/2969
DBJalon Thompson
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 64.7
- Coverage
- 79.9
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 3
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
80.259/2969
WRZamaurious Robertson
1 rec · 4 yds · 0 TD
78.270/2069
DBAde Willie
1 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 60.0
- Coverage
- 78.6
- Targets allowed
- 2
- Rec allowed
- 1
- Yards allowed
- 6
- Passer rating allowed
- 56.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
78.095/2969
WRJordan Shipp
20 rec · 273 yds · 0 TD
77.877/2069
Availability reports · 5
- Jaxxon Warren · TEout · 2026-08-21
Warren is managing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jordan Washington · TEout · 2026-10-10
Washington is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.
- Jaylen Harvey · DLQues. · 2026-10-10
Harvey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remain to seen if he will face Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
- Carnell Warren · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Carnell is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
- Keeyun Chapman · WRQues. · 2026-10-10
Chapman is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face against Duke on Saturday, October 17th.
DukeQBDan Mahan
126 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
90.618/729
WRPaxon Kettering
1 rec · 32 yds · 0 TD
90.16/2069
RBNate Sheppard
644 yds · 6 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.237/1044
LBElliott Schaper
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.8
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.250/1796
WRJonah Burton
13 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
81.942/2069
TEJeremiah Hasley
13 rec · 195 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 67.1
- Run blocking
- 72.0
- Penalties
- 0
78.332/1017
Availability reports · 3
- Cosme Salas · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Salas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Lawrence Gardner · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Qeanu Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Johnson is hampered up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
UNCNorth Carolina
DUKEDuke
vs
Offense
71.8
#96 of 138
QB
Quarterback
90.6
#16 of 138
67.5
#131 of 138
RB
Running backs
80.8
#32 of 138
72.0
#62 of 138
WR
Receivers
83.0
#3 of 138
77.2
#33 of 138
TE
Tight ends
78.3
#29 of 138
66.5
#84 of 138
OL
Offensive line
75.4
#16 of 138
Defense
74.8
#55 of 138
DL
Defensive line
81.7
#9 of 138
71.9
#89 of 138
LB
Linebackers
77.8
#38 of 138
77.4
#12 of 138
DB
Secondary
69.3
#108 of 138
Common opponents
Common opponents
North Carolina
opponent
Duke
Aaway-8.0
CLEMClemson#57+7.8Hhome
Aaway-8.6
UVAVirginia#50+2.2Aaway
Hhome-19.1
MIAMiami#4-13.6Aaway
Hhome-0.3
NCSUNC State#63+5.2Aaway