AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
Victory Bell (Duke-UNC)
#61Away
North Carolina
1-0 · AVR 50.8
24p
#39Home
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
30p
UNC 34%67% DUKE
Spread
DUKE -6.2
Total
55
Moneyline
UNC+199DUKE-199
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UNC advantageevenDUKE advantage →
UNC throw
DUKE +10
UNC run
DUKE +19
DUKE throw
DUKE protection #83
UNC +4
DUKE run
DUKE backs #33
DUKE +16

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DUKE runs
Nate Sheppard
vs
Daniel Anderson
RB · DUKE
MLB · UNC
83.8
61.1
DUKE +23
when UNC throws
Jordan Shipp
vs
Dylan Flowers
X · UNC
CB1 · DUKE
56.0
85.9
DUKE +30
when UNC runs
Demon June
vs
Luke Mergott
RB · UNC
MLB · DUKE
56.8
79.0
DUKE +22
over the middle
Jeremiah Hasley
vs
Kaleb Cost
TE · DUKE
FS · UNC
66.8
67.3
dead even
off the edge· hunting Eget
Matt Craycraft
vs
Melkart Abou Jaoude
LT · DUKE
EDGE · UNC
44.1
87.3
UNC +43
when DUKE throws
Javen Nicholas
vs
Peyton Waters
X · DUKE
CB1 · UNC
51.0
69.9
UNC +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
North Carolina
DBPeyton Waters
69.9242/1427
DBJaiden Patterson
68.6271/1427
DBGreg Smith
68.2275/1427
TEJelani Thurman
61.143/287
LBDaniel Anderson
61.1267/878
RBDemon June
56.8146/514

also out — J. Warren (TE)

Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
North Carolina
opponent
Duke
away-12.7
Clemson#27
-4.0home
away-4.3
Virginia#49
-0.6away
home-3.2
NC State#34
-4.6away
home-15.1
Miami#6
-16.4away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKDUKE +6.295% interval: -17.7 to 30.180% interval: -11.2 to 23.5-11+24UNC wins 34%DUKE wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DUKE 32–25 UNCDUKE 28–49 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 32–46 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 35–42 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDUKE 39–39 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDUKE 42–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDUKE 46–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDUKE 49–28 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 53–25 UNC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 56–21 UNC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 25–46 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 28–42 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDUKE 32–39 UNC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDUKE 35–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDUKE 39–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDUKE 42–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 46–25 UNC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 49–21 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 53–18 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 21–42 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 25–39 UNC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 28–35 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDUKE 32–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDUKE 35–28 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDUKE 39–25 UNC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDUKE 42–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDUKE 46–18 UNC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDUKE 49–14 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 18–39 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 21–35 UNC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDUKE 25–32 UNC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDUKE 28–28 UNC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesDUKE 32–25 UNC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesDUKE 35–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDUKE 39–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 42–14 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDUKE 46–11 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 14–35 UNC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 18–32 UNC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDUKE 21–28 UNC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDUKE 25–25 UNC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDUKE 28–21 UNC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDUKE 32–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 35–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 39–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDUKE 42–7 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 11–32 UNC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 14–28 UNC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesDUKE 18–25 UNC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesDUKE 21–21 UNC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 25–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDUKE 28–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDUKE 32–11 UNC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 35–7 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 39–4 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 7–28 UNC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDUKE 11–25 UNC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDUKE 14–21 UNC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 18–18 UNC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDUKE 21–14 UNC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDUKE 25–11 UNC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 28–7 UNC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDUKE 32–4 UNC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 35–0 UNC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUNC +21UNC +7DUKE +7DUKE +21DUKE +35margin →