Passing
No comparison
- W&M offense
- —
- DUKE defense
- #60
EPA comparison
—
0.11
#60
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
W&M 0.1%99.9% DUKE
- Projected margin
- DUKE by 46.4
- Projected total
- 60
- 80% outcome range
- DUKE 25 to DUKE 66
- Win probability
- DUKE 99.9%
FinalW&M 7 · DUKE 62model had +46.4, off by 8.6
Current team profiles
William & Mary
DukeWhen William & Mary has the ball
Rushing
No comparison
- W&M offense
- —
- DUKE defense
- #14
EPA comparison
—
-0.12
#14
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- W&M offense
- #115
- DUKE defense
- #43
Success rates
39%
#115
37%
#43
Success rate
More metrics
-0.03
#118
0.01
#46
EPA / play
0.18
#115
1.16
#36
Explosiveness
—
17%
#52
Havoc
When Duke has the ball
Passing
No comparison
- W&M defense
- —
- DUKE offense
- #28
EPA comparison
—
0.39
#28
Pass EPA
Rushing
No comparison
- W&M defense
- —
- DUKE offense
- #21
EPA comparison
—
0.23
#21
Rush EPA
Drive success
No comparison
- W&M defense
- #127
- DUKE offense
- #60
Success rates
50%
#127
44%
#60
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#116
0.29
#19
EPA / play
0.25
#122
1.34
#19
Explosiveness
—
10%
#7
Havoc
Current key players
William & MaryQBWinston Watkins
1146 yds · 7 TD · 1 INT
72.483/370
RBJack Reuter
— yds · — TD · — YPC
87.48/631
LBDeclan Ta'amai
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 70.2
- Coverage
- 58.7
- Pressures
- 6
- Pass-rush snaps
- 10
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
81.335/1054
DBCade Ellis
27 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 72.3
- Coverage
- 75.5
- Targets allowed
- 17
- Rec allowed
- 9
- Yards allowed
- 104
- Passer rating allowed
- 71.7
- Missed tackles
- 6
75.5131/1765
WRKhylil Johnson
16 rec · 393 yds · 1 TD
74.385/1229
KMax Lipinski
8/12 FG · 0%
73.256/416
DukeQBDan Mahan
126 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT
90.618/729
WRPaxon Kettering
1 rec · 32 yds · 0 TD
90.16/2069
RBNate Sheppard
644 yds · 6 TD · 7.1 YPC
85.237/1044
LBElliott Schaper
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 87.8
- Coverage
- 71.2
- Pressures
- 1
- Pass-rush snaps
- 2
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
84.250/1796
WRJonah Burton
13 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
81.942/2069
TEJeremiah Hasley
13 rec · 195 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
- Pass blocking
- 67.1
- Run blocking
- 72.0
- Penalties
- 0
78.332/1017
Availability reports · 3
- Cosme Salas · KQues. · 2026-10-11
Salas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Lawrence Gardner · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Gardner is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
- Qeanu Johnson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11
Johnson is hampered up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the Tar Heels on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
W&MWilliam & Mary
DUKEDuke
vs
Offense
72.4
#61 of 125
QB
Quarterback
90.6
#16 of 138
77.0
#25 of 126
RB
Running backs
80.8
#32 of 138
70.3
#53 of 126
WR
Receivers
83.0
#3 of 138
60.0
#94 of 124
TE
Tight ends
78.3
#29 of 138
62.0
#96 of 125
OL
Offensive line
75.4
#16 of 138
Defense
66.2
#110 of 126
DL
Defensive line
81.7
#9 of 138
73.1
#46 of 126
LB
Linebackers
77.8
#38 of 138
67.7
#108 of 126
DB
Secondary
69.3
#108 of 138