AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 7:30 PM
Away
William & Mary
—
13p
#39Home
Duke
0-0 · AVR 58.9
45p
W&M 1%99% DUKE
Spread
DUKE -31.6
Total
58
Moneyline
W&M—DUKE—
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Duke
CBDylan Flowers
85.935/1427
RBNate Sheppard
83.811/514
LBLuke Mergott
79.066/878
QBWalker Eget
70.140/308
SPatrick Smith-Young
70.0240/1427
TEJeremiah Hasley
66.818/287

Projected margin

80% between 15 and 48
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKDUKE +31.695% interval: 8.7 to 54.680% interval: 14.9 to 48.4+15+48W&M wins 1%DUKE wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DUKE 46–11 W&MDUKE 42–35 W&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 46–32 W&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 49–28 W&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 53–25 W&M neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDUKE 56–21 W&M neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDUKE 60–18 W&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDUKE 63–14 W&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDUKE 67–11 W&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 70–7 W&M neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesDUKE 39–32 W&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 42–28 W&M neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 46–25 W&M neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDUKE 49–21 W&M neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDUKE 53–18 W&M neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDUKE 56–14 W&M neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesDUKE 60–11 W&M neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDUKE 63–7 W&M neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDUKE 67–4 W&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 35–28 W&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 39–25 W&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 42–21 W&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 46–18 W&M neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesDUKE 49–14 W&M neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesDUKE 53–11 W&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 56–7 W&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 60–4 W&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 63–0 W&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDUKE 32–25 W&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 35–21 W&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDUKE 39–18 W&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 42–14 W&M neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesDUKE 46–11 W&M neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesDUKE 49–7 W&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesDUKE 53–4 W&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDUKE 56–0 W&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)DUKE 28–21 W&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDUKE 32–18 W&M neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 35–14 W&M neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 39–11 W&M neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesDUKE 42–7 W&M neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesDUKE 46–4 W&M neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDUKE 49–0 W&M neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)DUKE 25–18 W&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDUKE 28–14 W&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesDUKE 32–11 W&M neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDUKE 35–7 W&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 39–4 W&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDUKE 42–0 W&M neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)DUKE 21–14 W&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesDUKE 25–11 W&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDUKE 28–7 W&M neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDUKE 32–4 W&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDUKE 35–0 W&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalDUKE +7DUKE +21DUKE +35DUKE +49DUKE +63margin →