CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 7:30 PM ET
#87Away
App State
3-0 · AVR 56.5
31
Final
#49Home
NC State
1-2 · AVR 65.1
41
Forecast win probability
APP 29.6%70.4% NCSU
Projected margin
NCSU by 7.9
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
APP 10 to NCSU 28
Win probability
NCSU 70.4%
FinalAPP 31 · NCSU 41model had +7.9, off by 2.1

Current team profiles

App State
NC State

When App State has the ball

Passing

APP offense
Higher-ranked profile
APP offense
#47
NCSU defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.28
#47
0.36
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

NCSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
APP offense
#107
NCSU defense
#68
EPA comparison
0.01
#107
0.04
#68
Rush EPA

Drive success

APP offense
Higher-ranked profile
APP offense
#83
NCSU defense
#88
Success rates
42%
#83
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.12
#84
0.16
#109
EPA / play
1.26
#52
1.30
#104
Explosiveness
15%
#87
16%
#65
Havoc

When NC State has the ball

Passing

APP defense
Higher-ranked profile
APP defense
#41
NCSU offense
#44
EPA comparison
0.07
#41
0.31
#44
Pass EPA

Rushing

APP defense
Higher-ranked profile
APP defense
#56
NCSU offense
#72
EPA comparison
0.02
#56
0.10
#72
Rush EPA

Drive success

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
APP defense
#72
NCSU offense
#48
Success rates
40%
#72
46%
#48
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#52
0.19
#53
EPA / play
1.06
#12
1.24
#63
Explosiveness
19%
#28
15%
#79
Havoc

Current key players

App State
QBMalachi Singleton
1206 yds · 7 TD · 1 INT
91.28/729
RBKanye Roberts
31 yds · 0 TD · 7.8 YPC
81.361/1044
LBCarson Sloan
15 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
88.5
Coverage
59.9
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
9
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
78.6107/1796
WRJackson Grier
5 rec · 48 yds · 1 TD
77.976/2069
WRSam Pickett III
20 rec · 326 yds · 3 TD
76.795/2069
DBDre Walker
8 tkl · 0 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
39.2
Coverage
83.2
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
97
Passer rating allowed
34.6
Missed tackles
3
75.2187/2969
NC State
QBWill Wilson
33 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
86.134/729
RBDylan McCoy
73 yds · 1 TD · 18.2 YPC
94.11/1044
TEIan Flynt
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.9
Run blocking
81.3
Penalties
0
90.51/1017
LBZane Williams
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.7
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.728/1796
CBMichael Tate
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
77.5
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
78.485/2969
LBElijah Satchell
7 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.5
Coverage
53.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
41
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
75.4172/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Gus Ritchey · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Ritchey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Tyreek Copper · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Copper is bothered by a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Noah Moss · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moss is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday, October

  • Ian Flynt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Flynt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Vander Ploog · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ploog is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nick Konieczynski · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Konieczynski is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

APP
NCSU
vs
Offense
91.2
#9 of 138
QB
86.1
#32 of 138
77.7
#49 of 138
RB
92.4
#1 of 138
76.6
#28 of 138
WR
68.1
#107 of 138
67.0
#83 of 138
TE
90.5
#1 of 138
62.7
#116 of 138
OL
73.9
#21 of 138
Defense
76.3
#41 of 138
DL
71.7
#89 of 138
74.1
#68 of 138
LB
78.8
#30 of 138
67.2
#124 of 138
DB
72.7
#61 of 138
Common opponents