AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#103Away
App State
0-0 · AVR 38.9
19p
#34Home
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
38p
APP 10%90% NCSU
Spread
NCSU -18.6
Total
57
Moneyline
APP+900NCSU-900
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← APP advantageevenNCSU advantage →
APP throw
APP protection #46
NCSU +7
APP run
NCSU linebackers #64
APP +16
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90
NCSU +34
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
JaCari Henderson
X · NCSU
CB1 · APP
73.0
77.4
APP +4
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Colton Phares
RB · NCSU
MLB · APP
72.5
76.6
APP +4
when APP runs
Jaquari Lewis
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · APP
MLB · NCSU
60.6
70.6
NCSU +10
off the edge· hunting Ulatowski
Devon Manuel
vs
Adrian Farrow
LT · APP
EDGE · NCSU
81.7
46.6
APP +35
off the edge· hunting Bailey
Rylan Vann
vs
Aiden Benton
LT · NCSU
EDGE · APP
42.5
84.7
APP +42
when APP throws
Alexander Sanchez
vs
King Mack
X · APP
CB1 · NCSU
41.4
75.8
NCSU +34

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
App State
DBJaCari Henderson
77.4121/1427
LBColton Phares
76.691/878
LBKeshawn Thomas
73.1117/878
DBJaDen McBurrows
66.9312/1427
RBJaquari Lewis
60.6103/514
DBJuan Berchal
57.4552/1427
NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 36
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNCSU +18.695% interval: -5.3 to 42.580% interval: 1.2 to 36+1+36APP wins 10%NCSU wins 90%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NCSU 39–18 APPNCSU 35–42 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 39–39 APP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNCSU 42–35 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 46–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 49–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 53–25 APP neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 56–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 60–18 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 63–14 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 32–39 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 35–35 APP neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 39–32 APP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 42–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 46–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 49–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 53–18 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 56–14 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNCSU 60–11 APP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 28–35 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 32–32 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 35–28 APP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNCSU 39–25 APP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNCSU 42–21 APP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 46–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 49–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNCSU 53–11 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 56–7 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 25–32 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 28–28 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 32–25 APP neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 35–21 APP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 39–18 APP neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNCSU 42–14 APP neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 46–11 APP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNCSU 49–7 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 53–4 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 21–28 APP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 25–25 APP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 28–21 APP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 32–18 APP neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesNCSU 35–14 APP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 39–11 APP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNCSU 42–7 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 46–4 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 49–0 APP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 18–25 APP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 21–21 APP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 25–18 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 28–14 APP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNCSU 32–11 APP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 35–7 APP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 39–4 APP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 42–0 APP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)NCSU 14–21 APP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 18–18 APP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 21–14 APP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesNCSU 25–11 APP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 28–7 APP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 32–4 APP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 35–0 APP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalAPP +7NCSU +7NCSU +21NCSU +35NCSU +49margin →