CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 8 · Fri Oct 23 · 10:30 PM ET
#63Away
NC State
3-3 · AVR 61.1
31p
#106Home
Stanford
2-4 · AVR 53.0
24p
Forecast win probability
NCSU 65.5%34.5% STAN
Projected margin
NCSU by 6.2
Projected total
57
80% outcome range
NCSU 25 to STAN 12
Win probability
NCSU 65.5%

Current team profiles

NC State
Stanford

When NC State has the ball

Passing

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#44
STAN defense
#136
EPA comparison
0.31
#44
0.47
#136
Pass EPA

Rushing

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#72
STAN defense
#138
EPA comparison
0.10
#72
0.32
#138
Rush EPA

Drive success

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU offense
#48
STAN defense
#133
Success rates
46%
#48
50%
#133
Success rate
More metrics
0.19
#53
0.37
#138
EPA / play
1.24
#63
1.35
#117
Explosiveness
15%
#79
11%
#131
Havoc

When Stanford has the ball

Passing

STAN offense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#122
STAN offense
#88
EPA comparison
0.36
#122
0.14
#88
Pass EPA

Rushing

NCSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#68
STAN offense
#126
EPA comparison
0.04
#68
-0.08
#126
Rush EPA

Drive success

NCSU defense
Higher-ranked profile
NCSU defense
#88
STAN offense
#126
Success rates
42%
#88
37%
#126
Success rate
More metrics
0.16
#109
0.04
#111
EPA / play
1.30
#104
1.20
#91
Explosiveness
16%
#65
14%
#60
Havoc

Current key players

NC State
QBWill Wilson
33 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
86.134/729
RBDylan McCoy
73 yds · 1 TD · 18.2 YPC
94.11/1044
TEIan Flynt
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.9
Run blocking
81.3
Penalties
0
90.51/1017
LBZane Williams
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.7
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.728/1796
CBMichael Tate
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
77.5
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
78.485/2969
LBElijah Satchell
7 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.5
Coverage
53.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
41
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
75.4172/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Gus Ritchey · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Ritchey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Tyreek Copper · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Copper is bothered by a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Noah Moss · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moss is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday, October

  • Ian Flynt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Flynt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Vander Ploog · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ploog is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nick Konieczynski · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Konieczynski is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October

Stanford
QBDavis Warren
1207 yds · 5 TD · 1 INT
70.0153/729
WRNico Brown
10 rec · 148 yds · 1 TD
79.363/2069
RBTuna Altahir
8 yds · 0 TD · 4.0 YPC
75.3173/1044
LBGabe Kaminski
11 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
75.0
Coverage
70.9
Pressures
9
Pass-rush snaps
61
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
73.2253/1796
CBBrandon Nicholson
9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
57.2
Coverage
74.5
Targets allowed
13
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
57
Passer rating allowed
52.4
Missed tackles
2
72.6298/2969
WRCaden High
17 rec · 236 yds · 3 TD
72.3187/2069
Availability reports · 5
  • Niki Prongos · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Prongos is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will suit up against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Aidan Kilstrom · OGQues. · 2026-10-11

    Kilstrom is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Carter Shaw · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Shaw is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Daylen Sharper · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Sharper is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be available against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

  • London Bironas · KQues. · 2026-10-11

    Bironas is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Phoenix on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NCSU
STAN
vs
Offense
86.1
#32 of 138
QB
70.0
#100 of 138
92.4
#1 of 138
RB
73.3
#92 of 138
68.1
#107 of 138
WR
72.2
#56 of 138
90.5
#1 of 138
TE
57.5
#133 of 138
73.9
#21 of 138
OL
67.0
#79 of 138
Defense
71.7
#89 of 138
DL
65.3
#134 of 138
78.8
#30 of 138
LB
68.4
#119 of 138
72.7
#61 of 138
DB
68.3
#116 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

NC State
opponent
Stanford
H-24.0
WAKE#26
-54.0A
H-5.2
DUKE#34
-28.0A
H+3.0
LOU#27
-15.7A
H+10.2
CAL#90
-4.0A