AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 2:30 AM
#34Away
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
34p
#96Home
Stanford
0-0 · AVR 41.0
21p
NCSU 82%18% STAN
Spread
NCSU -13.2
Total
54
Moneyline
NCSU-448STAN+448
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NCSU advantageevenSTAN advantage →
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90
NCSU +31
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49STAN front #97
STAN +12
STAN throw
STAN protection #61
NCSU +9
STAN run
NCSU linebackers #64
STAN +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Matt Rose
RB · NCSU
MLB · STAN
72.5
78.1
STAN +6
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
Jay Green
X · NCSU
CB1 · STAN
73.0
70.7
dead even
when STAN runs
Micah Ford
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · STAN
MLB · NCSU
64.3
70.6
NCSU +6
when STAN throws
Caden High
vs
King Mack
X · STAN
CB1 · NCSU
52.4
75.8
NCSU +23
over the middle
Preston Douglas
vs
Scotty Edwards
TE · NCSU
FS · STAN
59.2
49.3
NCSU +10
off the edge· hunting Bailey
Rylan Vann
vs
Joe Asiain
LT · NCSU
EDGE · STAN
42.5
65.5
STAN +23

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

Stanford
LBMatt Rose
78.178/878
LBTevarua Tafiti
74.3111/878
SJay Green
70.7219/1427
CBBrandon Nicholson
70.6224/1427
RBMicah Ford
64.380/514
SJaylen'Dai Sumlin
55.5604/1427

also out — N. Prongos (OG)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
NC State
opponent
Stanford
home+4.6
Duke#39
-16.1away
home+0.8
Louisville#28
-19.9away
home+6.5
Wake Forest#46
-14.2away
home+11.5
California#68
-9.2away

Projected margin

80% between -31 and 4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNCSU +13.295% interval: -37.1 to 10.780% interval: -30.6 to 4.2-31+4NCSU wins 82%STAN wins 18%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NCSU 35–21 STANSTAN 18–60 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSTAN 21–56 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSTAN 25–53 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSTAN 28–49 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSTAN 32–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 35–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 39–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSTAN 42–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSTAN 46–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 14–56 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 18–53 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSTAN 21–49 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSTAN 25–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSTAN 28–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSTAN 32–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSTAN 35–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSTAN 39–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 42–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 11–53 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 14–49 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 18–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 21–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSTAN 25–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSTAN 28–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 32–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 35–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSTAN 39–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 7–49 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 11–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 14–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 18–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 21–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSTAN 25–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSTAN 28–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSTAN 32–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 35–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 4–46 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSTAN 7–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 11–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 14–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSTAN 18–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSTAN 21–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSTAN 25–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSTAN 28–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSTAN 32–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSTAN 0–42 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSTAN 4–39 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSTAN 7–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSTAN 11–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSTAN 14–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSTAN 18–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSTAN 21–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSTAN 25–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSTAN 28–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)STAN 0–35 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSTAN 4–32 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSTAN 7–28 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSTAN 11–25 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSTAN 14–21 NCSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSTAN 18–18 NCSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSTAN 21–14 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSTAN 25–11 NCSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalNCSU +42NCSU +28NCSU +14PKSTAN +14margin →