AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#46Away
Wake Forest
0-0 · AVR 56.4
24p
#34Home
NC State
0-1 · AVR 60.6
31p
WAKE 33%67% NCSU
Spread
NCSU -6.5
Total
55
Moneyline
WAKE+207NCSU-207
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WAKE advantageevenNCSU advantage →
WAKE throw
WAKE +20
WAKE run
NCSU linebackers #64
WAKE +6
NCSU throw
NCSU protection #90
WAKE +13
NCSU run
NCSU backs #49
WAKE +41

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NCSU throws
Teddy Hoffmann
vs
Davaughn Patterson
X · NCSU
CB1 · WAKE
73.0
84.7
WAKE +12
when NCSU runs
Jayden Scott
vs
Aiden Hall
RB · NCSU
MLB · WAKE
72.5
84.0
WAKE +11
off the edge· hunting Bailey
Rylan Vann
vs
Langston Hardy
LT · NCSU
EDGE · WAKE
42.5
96.3
WAKE +54
when WAKE throws
Carlos Hernandez
vs
King Mack
X · WAKE
CB1 · NCSU
56.6
75.8
NCSU +19
when WAKE runs
Ty Clark III
vs
Harvey Dyson III
RB · WAKE
MLB · NCSU
59.7
70.6
NCSU +11
over the middle
Preston Douglas
vs
Freddie Gillens
TE · NCSU
FS · WAKE
59.2
66.4
WAKE +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Wake Forest
DBDavaughn Patterson
84.746/1427
LBAiden Hall
84.028/878
DBDeuce Blades II
73.7167/1427
DBKoredell Bartley
69.7245/1427
LBFrank Cusano
69.3157/878
RBTy Clark III
59.7116/514
NC State
QBCJ Bailey
83.115/308
SKing Mack
75.8143/1427
WRTeddy Hoffmannout
73.039/777
RBJayden Scott
72.544/514
LBHarvey Dyson III
70.6134/878
LBPopo Aguirre
66.2197/878

also out — Carmelo McKenzie (DL), Gus Ritchey (TE), Isaiah Crowell, JJ Ferguson Jr. (DL), Rylan Vann (OL), Tyreek Copper (WR)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Wake Forest
opponent
NC State
home+2.4
Virginia#49
-26.0away
away-8.2
Louisville#28
+0.8home
away+2.5
California#68
+11.5home
home+0.6
Duke#39
+4.6home
home+14.2
Stanford#96
+13.2away

Projected margin

80% between -11 and 24
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKNCSU +6.595% interval: -17.4 to 30.480% interval: -10.9 to 23.9-11+24WAKE wins 33%NCSU wins 67%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ NCSU 32–25 WAKENCSU 28–49 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 32–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNCSU 35–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 39–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 42–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 46–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 49–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 53–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesNCSU 56–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesNCSU 25–46 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 28–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNCSU 32–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesNCSU 35–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 39–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesNCSU 42–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesNCSU 46–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 49–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesNCSU 53–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 21–42 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 25–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 28–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 32–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNCSU 35–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 39–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 42–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 46–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNCSU 49–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 18–39 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesNCSU 21–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesNCSU 25–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesNCSU 28–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesNCSU 32–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesNCSU 35–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNCSU 39–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 42–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNCSU 46–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 14–35 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 18–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesNCSU 21–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesNCSU 25–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesNCSU 28–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesNCSU 32–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 35–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 39–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNCSU 42–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 11–32 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesNCSU 14–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesNCSU 18–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesNCSU 21–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesNCSU 25–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesNCSU 28–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesNCSU 32–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesNCSU 35–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesNCSU 39–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 7–28 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesNCSU 11–25 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNCSU 14–21 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesNCSU 18–18 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 21–14 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesNCSU 25–11 WAKE neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesNCSU 28–7 WAKE neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesNCSU 32–4 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesNCSU 35–0 WAKE neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalWAKE +21WAKE +7NCSU +7NCSU +21NCSU +35margin →