CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
WAKE 53.9%46.1% NCSU
Projected margin
WAKE by 1.2
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
WAKE 21 to NCSU 18
Win probability
WAKE 53.9%
FinalWAKE 38 · NCSU 14model had -1.2, off by 22.8

Current team profiles

Wake Forest
NC State

When Wake Forest has the ball

Passing

WAKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE offense
#15
NCSU defense
#122
EPA comparison
0.45
#15
0.36
#122
Pass EPA

Rushing

WAKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE offense
#30
NCSU defense
#68
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
0.04
#68
Rush EPA

Drive success

WAKE offense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE offense
#34
NCSU defense
#88
Success rates
48%
#34
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.32
#12
0.16
#109
EPA / play
1.28
#37
1.30
#104
Explosiveness
11%
#18
16%
#65
Havoc

When NC State has the ball

Passing

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE defense
#75
NCSU offense
#44
EPA comparison
0.16
#75
0.31
#44
Pass EPA

Rushing

WAKE defense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE defense
#41
NCSU offense
#72
EPA comparison
-0.01
#41
0.10
#72
Rush EPA

Drive success

NCSU offense
Higher-ranked profile
WAKE defense
#105
NCSU offense
#48
Success rates
44%
#105
46%
#48
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#78
0.19
#53
EPA / play
1.06
#10
1.24
#63
Explosiveness
14%
#96
15%
#79
Havoc

Current key players

Wake Forest
QBGio Lopez
1377 yds · 10 TD · 1 INT
86.035/729
WRDevin Goldston
1 rec · 51 yds · 0 TD
87.318/2069
DBSomad Eaddy
12 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
84.5
Targets allowed
15
Rec allowed
11
Yards allowed
57
Passer rating allowed
51.2
Missed tackles
0
85.821/2969
LBVincent Firenze
38 tkl · 4.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.7
Coverage
70.0
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
16
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
1
84.742/1796
WRCarlos Hernandez
37 rec · 603 yds · 3 TD
83.333/2069
RBDeuce Lawrence
235 yds · 2 TD · 5.0 YPC
79.886/1044
Availability reports · 1
  • Ny Carr · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Carr is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against the California on Saturday, September 17th.

NC State
QBWill Wilson
33 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
86.134/729
RBDylan McCoy
73 yds · 1 TD · 18.2 YPC
94.11/1044
TEIan Flynt
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.9
Run blocking
81.3
Penalties
0
90.51/1017
LBZane Williams
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
83.7
Coverage
60.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
86.728/1796
CBMichael Tate
1 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
77.5
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
78.485/2969
LBElijah Satchell
7 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.5
Coverage
53.3
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
41
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
1
75.4172/1796
Availability reports · 6
  • Gus Ritchey · TEout · 2026-10-10

    Ritchey is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Tyreek Copper · WRout · 2026-10-10

    Copper is bothered by a undisclosed injury, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Noah Moss · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moss is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Stanford on Saturday, October

  • Ian Flynt · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Flynt is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against the Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Vander Ploog · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ploog is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Nick Konieczynski · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Konieczynski is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Stanford on Saturday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

WAKE
NCSU
vs
Offense
86.0
#33 of 138
QB
86.1
#32 of 138
73.0
#96 of 138
RB
92.4
#1 of 138
81.1
#6 of 138
WR
68.1
#107 of 138
67.3
#78 of 138
TE
90.5
#1 of 138
68.1
#67 of 138
OL
73.9
#21 of 138
Defense
73.4
#65 of 138
DL
71.7
#89 of 138
72.6
#82 of 138
LB
78.8
#30 of 138
77.0
#16 of 138
DB
72.7
#61 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Wake Forest
opponent
NC State
H+54.0
STAN#106
+6.2A
H+6.2
UVA#50
-26.0A
H+1.4
DUKE#34
-5.2H
A+11.4
CAL#90
+10.2H
A+3.0
LOU#27
+3.0H