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SEC

Vanderbilt

Commodores3-315th in SEC
FirstBank Stadium · Nashville, TN · 40,351
TeamShort on both sides · underachieving the roster
OffenseWeak attackweak point: staying on schedule, 102nd
DefenseWeak defenseweak point: getting off the field, 97th

The season

Best win
W 35-31 vs #63 NC State
Wk 3 · Sep 19 · model had 63%
Worst loss
L 15-21 @ #42 Auburn
Wk 4 · Sep 26 · model had 18%

Schedule

model 6/6 straight up

Opponent ranks use the selected season's current or final board.

  1. Week 1 · Sep 5
    vsAustin Peay
    W 28–9
    Win chance 99%Model margin +32.4Game details
  2. Week 2 · Sep 12
    vsDelaware
    W 35–26
    Win chance 93%Model margin +19.6Game details
  3. Week 3 · Sep 19
    vsNC State
    W 35–31
    Win chance 63%Model margin +4.5Game details
  4. Week 4 · Sep 26
    atAuburn
    L 15–21
    Win chance 18%Model margin -12.6Game details
  5. Week 5 · Oct 3
    atGeorgia
    L 14–38
    Win chance 6%Model margin -21.0Game details
  6. Week 6 · Oct 10
    vsOle Miss
    L 17–52
    Win chance 42%Model margin -2.8Game details
  7. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsArkansas
    Win chance 82%Model margin +12.5Game details
  8. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atKentucky
    Win chance 56%Model margin +2.0Game details
  9. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atMississippi State
    Win chance 44%Model margin -2.1Game details
  10. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsAlabama
    Win chance 16%Model margin -13.4Game details
  11. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atFlorida
    Win chance 38%Model margin -4.0Game details
  12. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsTennessee
    Win chance 34%Model margin -5.5Game details

Profile

Team DNA

rank of 138
Offense efficiency
36
#95 of 138
Defense efficiency
35
#93 of 138
Efficiency
#1050.05
EPA / play
#920.11
#760.20
Pass
#930.22
#790.09
Rush
#810.06
#10240%
Success
#9743%
Big plays & havoc
#571.25
Explosive
#721.22
#10116%
Havoc
#8315%
Position groupsby overall player grade
QB86th
RB123rd
WR122nd
TE18th
OL126th
DL92nd
LB107th
DB24th

Roster

Core lineup

overall grade
Offense
QB
Whit MuschampJR
18 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
73.9
121st QB
RB
Makhilyn YoungSR
134 yds · 1 TD · 3.9 YPC
74.4
186th RB
WR
Junior SherrillSR
28 rec · 474 yds · 3 TD
72.9
168th WR
WR
Kayleb BarnettSO
5 rec · 42 yds · 0 TD
66.9
383rd WR
TE
Maurice VeneyJR
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
82.8
18th TE
Defense
LB
Bryan LongwellSR
31 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
75.7
163rd LB
LB
Bryce CowanSR
14 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
67.5
470th LB
S
CJ HeardJR
40 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
80.9
51st DB
S
Mason LewisFR
20 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
79.2
74th DB
S
Ricardo JonesJR
22 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
75.1
190th DB

Injury report

2 listed
Ques.
Kahden SmithWR

Smith has been out of the lineup due to a leg injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

56.610-11
Ques.
J. CurtisLB

Curtis is nursing an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Razorbacks on Saturday, October 17th.

64.910-11

Ahead

From the full-season Monte Carlo

Playoff impact

Playoff chances in the published season simulation, depending on each game’s result. Games follow the remaining schedule.

  1. Week 7 · Oct 17
    vsArkansas
    Playoff chance if win
    0.8%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%
  2. Week 8 · Oct 24
    atKentucky
    Playoff chance if win
    1.1%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.1%
  3. Week 10 · Nov 7
    atMississippi State
    Playoff chance if win
    1.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%
  4. Week 11 · Nov 14
    vsAlabama
    Playoff chance if win
    2.3%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.3%
  5. Week 12 · Nov 21
    atFlorida
    Playoff chance if win
    1.4%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%
  6. Week 13 · Nov 28
    vsTennessee
    Playoff chance if win
    1.5%
    Playoff chance if loss
    0.2%

Past seasons

Year by year
+25.8 points since 2022
405365789052.7202250.1202365.5202478.42025
2022 52.72023 50.12024 65.52025 78.4

2025

10-2
D-I rank
#8
Rating
78.4
Listed games · 12
WWWWWLWWLWWW
473 pts scored263 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Charleston SouthernW 45–3
  2. W2 at Virginia TechW 44–20
  3. W3 at South CarolinaW 31–7
  4. W4 vs Georgia StateW 70–21
  5. W5 vs Utah StateW 55–35
  6. W6 at AlabamaL 14–30
  7. W8 vs LSUW 31–24
  8. W9 vs MissouriW 17–10
  9. W10 at TexasL 31–34
  10. W11 vs AuburnW 45–38
  11. W13 vs KentuckyW 45–17
  12. W14 at TennesseeW 45–24

2024

6-6
D-I rank
#50
Rating
65.5
Listed games · 12
WWLLWWWLWLLL
320 pts scored277 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Virginia TechW 34–27
  2. W2 vs Alcorn StateW 55–0
  3. W3 at Georgia StateL 32–36
  4. W4 at MissouriL 27–30
  5. W6 vs AlabamaW 40–35
  6. W7 at KentuckyW 20–13
  7. W8 vs Ball StateW 24–14
  8. W9 vs TexasL 24–27
  9. W10 at AuburnW 17–7
  10. W11 vs South CarolinaL 7–28
  11. W13 at LSUL 17–24
  12. W14 vs TennesseeL 23–36

2023

2-10
D-I rank
#120
Rating
50.1
Listed games · 12
WWLLLLLLLLLL
274 pts scored434 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 vs Hawai'iW 35–28
  2. W1 vs Alabama A&MW 47–13
  3. W2 at Wake ForestL 20–36
  4. W3 at UNLVL 37–40
  5. W4 vs KentuckyL 28–45
  6. W5 vs MissouriL 21–38
  7. W6 at FloridaL 14–38
  8. W7 vs GeorgiaL 20–37
  9. W9 at Ole MissL 7–33
  10. W10 vs AuburnL 15–31
  11. W11 at South CarolinaL 6–47
  12. W13 at TennesseeL 24–48

2022

5-7
D-I rank
#110
Rating
52.7
Listed games · 12
WWLWLLLLLWWL
295 pts scored432 allowed
Season schedule
  1. W1 at Hawai'iW 63–10
  2. W1 vs ElonW 42–31
  3. W2 vs Wake ForestL 25–45
  4. W3 at Northern IllinoisW 38–28
  5. W4 at AlabamaL 3–55
  6. W6 vs Ole MissL 28–52
  7. W7 at GeorgiaL 0–55
  8. W8 at MissouriL 14–17
  9. W10 vs South CarolinaL 27–38
  10. W11 at KentuckyW 24–21
  11. W12 vs FloridaW 31–24
  12. W13 vs TennesseeL 0–56